weather forecast

[Eman]

Hey All,

What are some good websites for weather forecast in the Sierras, Hoover and Emigrant wilderness area.

thanks
Eric

[c9h13no3]

What are some good websites for weather forecast in the Sierras, Hoover and Emigrant wilderness area.

The National Weather Service is the default for everything for a reason. People deride their simplistic models, but they work. Their hourly forecast & weather table interface also provides additional data.

Windy.com is useful. Their graphical interface allows you to quickly be able to see where the rain/thunder/whatever will be. And you can easily switch between a wide selection of weather models to get more confused about what will happen.

Fire.airnow.gov and the AirNow Interactive Forecast is useful in fire season, this fire season where the Sierra is still drying out from last winter being the obvious exception.

The Eastern Sierra Avalanche Center is useful in winter.

[maverick]

https://www.highsierratopix.com/communi ... php?t=7778

[wildhiker]

Just remember that the weather will do what it will, despite the forecast! Be prepared for worse weather than forecast.
On Sept 7, I drove up to Yosemite with a Weather Service forecast at 9,000 to 10,000 feet elevation of "sun, sun, sun" for the next 5 days.
The reality: one day of sun, and then mostly cloudy with rain showers and thunder for the next four days.
-Phil

[rayfound]

The reality: one day of sun, and then mostly cloudy with rain showers and thunder for the next four days.
-Phil

Yup! I was in mammoth that weekend dayhiking the area - had rain both days despite a clear forecast just a couple days earlier. Got hail briefly atop Duck pass on the 10th.

[dave54]

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/fire?wfo=re ... =-120.9990

Move around the map and click on a new point. It uses an algorithm to develop a forecast based upon that exact location. The Point Forecast Matrix tab will show a 6 day forecast. The Fire Weather Forecast tab is a general area forecast.

Heavy to jargon. It is designed for fire danger.

Years ago, the Forest Service had a small pocket sized reference book on forecasting weather in the field. It was along the lines of "If you wake up in the morning with dew on the ground, you see cirrus clouds, and the wind is from the southeast, expect X weather later today". That book is long out of print and I cannot find a copy anywhere. Queries on FB and fire websites yielded nothing. The book needs to be scanned and posted online.


An online weather primer is here:
https://www.nwcg.gov/publications/pms425-1

Written by the Forest Service for firefighters, it is sort of a 'Mountain Weather for Dummies' without getting into chemistry, physics, and math of a normal meteorology course.

Or use George Carlin's famous Hippie Weatherman forecast "For tonight increasing darkness, followed by scattered light in the early morning."

[Wandering Daisy]

I have been disappointed with In-Reach "basic" weather forecasts. I have found them wrong half the time. Pretty good for temperature and humidity, but terrible for rain- often thunderstorms when they say zero percent chance of rain. The upgraded forecast only adds more days and timing detail, but still not very accurate for rain. It is also funny that they call a 45mph wind gust a "fresh breeze".

The NWS detailed discussion of the long-term forecast is very useful where the certainty is talked about. There are a lot of technical terms, but you can click on the term and get a good explanation.

[freestone]

U-Tube, Michael Snyder's California Weather Watch channel- His main channel does the PNW but now also does a CA update daily. His presentation of the GFS, Euro and their ensembles is very informative and he will run them side by side to see how they are often at odds.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SZyAcGEGnGE

Tropical Tidbits- No discussion, just all the Models.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

[scottmiller]

I have been disappointed with In-Reach "basic" weather forecasts.

How fondly I remember sitting in the tent for four hours while In-Reach told me there was 0 chance of rain.
I have found NWS to be as accurate as I can expect. I have learned that when they say "5 - 10% chance of showers," it usually means you get rain for sure. Last week, those 5-10% thunderstorms came in like clockwork.

[kpeter]

I have been disappointed with In-Reach "basic" weather forecasts.

How fondly I remember sitting in the tent for four hours while In-Reach told me there was 0 chance of rain.
I have found NWS to be as accurate as I can expect. I have learned that when they say "5 - 10% chance of showers," it usually means you get rain for sure. Last week, those 5-10% thunderstorms came in like clockwork.

Here is how I interpret the NWS "20% chance of rain". It does not mean that there is a 20% chance that it will rain at some point during the day. It means for 20% of the day it will be raining on me. So almost surly a couple of hours of it.

Frankly, I don't really know what it is supposed to mean, but that seems to be how I actually experience NWS forecasts.