2023 High Snowpack Conditions: Jinxing snow discussion

[commonloon]

@kpeter I've been thinking similarly. 1983 had late snow in April/May. We could have warm weather and/or rain during those 2 months that would affect the snowpack for the summer. It does look like it is unlikely that we will not have a big snow year for 2023. I've been looking at old photos, but I'm not finding them all that helpful. They are more helpful to bring back memories of X trip. I've also been looking at the satellite photos on caltopo, USGS river flow data and snow station data. Attempting to assess what is possible/when.


2019 Ediza Lake (@jgshal2385):

2019_caltop.jpg

2019 flow:

2019_flow.png

My 2019 sunscreen malfunction:

https://youtu.be/i1ObCBBnvmw

[commonloon]

Follow up to my last post. Here are the photos from my late June 2019 trip. The video in the last post is also from this trip.

I hiked out of Mammoth Pass (Red cones), down PCT/JMT, up the Fish Creek drainage, over Rohn Pass, Mott Lake, back over Silver Pass, back on JMT/PCT, Red Meadows, Minaret Lake... where I sprained my ankle, but while on a dirt slope(!) and had to bail. I had intended on continuing on the SHR to Yosemite then looping back.

https://photos.app.goo.gl/KxjrQ5MhWK8RH4ng6

[Harlen]

Great pics Paul, did you trash your ankle on this trip?!
I must say, we too are getting a bit anxious about the conditions we will find on our late June-early July trip. This is to be our once per year trip with friends coming from Vermont, and though they know snow, we had hoped to cover long miles and cross many passes. We are hiking out of Courtright Res., and touring all along the Leconte, and White Divides. Will the lakes be fishable? Will we bog down in snow? We'll see.

I'll add a few pics from the winterlike summer trip to Bear Basin in July of 2017, and skiing in Humphreys Basin in June of the same year:

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Heading up White Bear Pass from the north.

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Looking down into upper Bear Basin from around the pass.

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Frozen Vee Lake.


H.Basin June 2017

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Looking south from Puppet Pass, across H.Basin to Glacier Divide.

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Muriel Lake.

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By Goethe Lake, Alpine Col above.

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Pointing up to Snow Tongue Pass.

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View northeast from above Puppet Pass, looking down on French Canyon, and across Pine Creek Pass--
B.C. Spire and Mt Magee in the background.

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It is pretty up there in the snow, and zero mossies on both trips.

[commonloon]

Great pics Paul, did you trash your ankle on this trip?!
I must say, we too are getting a bit anxious about the conditions we will find on our late June-early July trip. This is to be our once per year trip with friends coming from Vermont, and though they know snow, we had hoped to cover long miles and cross many passes. We are hiking out of Courtright Res., and touring all along the Leconte, and White Divides. Will the lakes be fishable? Will we bog down in snow? We'll see.

Thanks Ian. Yes, but Henry and I did a scrambling trip in late July that year, including the Clever (one of my favorite little peaks), so it must not have been that bad. I think I remember re-injuring it a bit during that later trip. I have bad ankles from skateboarding as a kid...

Me as well. I have a Kings canyon permit for the 1st week of July. As you know, so hard to know what the conditions will be like. I've had pretty good luck over the years on snowy spring trips; doing early starts, having good snow (read not postholing) for most of the day. There was 1 trip, maybe 2017, where I was up along the Monarch Divide and ended up just turning back the 2nd morning. I think it had snowed a week or 2 before my trip, and that layer of unconsolidated snow was just a terrible for travel. Fingers crossed.

Hope you guys have a good hike!

[kpeter]

Another consideration. In 1983 and 2017 Tioga Pass did not open until June 29. I think Sonora Pass often opens about 2 weeks earlier. It opened on 6/13 2017. And no doubt many backroads like Kaiser Pass Road will be on a similar schedule.

Since 2017 is our most comparable year, do people remember when trailheads opened in 2017? When did Crabtree open up, for example?

[frozenintime]

SEKI is gonna need a bigger graph.

Screen Shot 2023-03-11 at 9.53.06 AM.png

[Harlen]

kpeter wrote:

Another consideration. In 1983 and 2017 Tioga Pass did not open until June 29. I think Sonora Pass often opens about 2 weeks earlier. It opened on 6/13 2017. And no doubt many backroads like Kaiser Pass Road will be on a similar schedule.

Since 2017 is our most comparable year, do people remember when trailheads opened in 2017? When did Crabtree open up, for example?
I can include some trailhead references for the year 2017

In my TR for the June 2017 Ski tour of H.Basin, I wrote:

... so the conditions around Piute Pass are this: one can park at the standard North Lake TH area, and can also run your packs up to the end of the campground by car, which saves a dreary half mile of slogging on the gravel road. The trail is pretty clear of snow, and not too wet and muddy all the way to the flat below Loch Leven. From there on the patchy snow increases, and at Piute Lake, it comes to dominate the trail.
The pass itself is melted out rock, but only for about 30 feet, and then it is all snow (cups!!) throughout Humphrey's Basin.

Re. the May 2017 ski trip out of Onion Valley, I noted that my original plan was thwarted by winter damage to the Horseshoe Meadows TH.:

... the winter’s damage to the road up to Horseshoe Meadows Trailheads will not be cleared till about Memorial Day; so my original plan to ski over New Army Pass into Miter Basin, and on up Whitney had to change. The road to the top of Onion Valley, out of Independence, is wide open to the trailhead at 9,185.’

On my next 2017 trip- Miter Basin, I began along the rebuilt road to Horseshoe Meadow TH, and drove all the way. In my TR I wrote:

I went in Wednesday 5/31, and made it in boots alone to the first of the Cottonwood Lakes. Beautiful dry camping amid those sculptured trees- the foxtail pines.

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I camped under these massive Foxtails.

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Even up in Miter Basin I found a bit of dry ground for a camp by Sky Blue Lake, and then I was attacked by the Marmot seen here!


So even in these high snow years, one can sometimes luck out with local conditions. Interestingly, it was on the later 2017 trips, in June and July, that I experienced the snowiest conditions. Apparently the southern Sierra received less snow, and it melted out faster, so perhaps we can use that info. to our advantage this summer. Or has it snowed so much more heavily in the southern Sierra this year?

[maverick]

Mar 2023
https://cdec.water.ca.gov/reportapp/jav ... me=COURSES

Mar 2017
https://cdec.water.ca.gov/reportapp/jav ... SES.201703

[texan]

Mar 2023
https://cdec.water.ca.gov/reportapp/jav ... me=COURSES

Mar 2017
https://cdec.water.ca.gov/reportapp/jav ... SES.201703

Thanks Mav for the info. Looks like right now state wide these years are very similar but the first week of March we got pounded. So I think its a little higher this year, will it compare to 82-83 we will see. Will we have a cool summer like 95 and Mammoth stays open until August 14 we will see. I did see one story about the 51-52 winter which had like 60-65 feet of snow but not a lot of data. That is suppose to be the biggest snow ever in a year in the Sierras and it was recorded in Tamarack, Ca off HWY 4. Dodge Ridge has 633 inches right now which is huge.

Texan

[paul]

A point of clarification on how ski resorts report snowfall and snow depths. They will state a season total, which is how much snow they have recieved, measured each day as it falls. That 633 inches for Dodge is that number. That is NOT the snow depth on the ground, nor is it intended to mean that. The snow depth on the ground is reported as "base depth" or just base. At Dodge that is currently 111 to 144 inches, depending on where you are on the mountain.