2023 High Snowpack Conditions: Jinxing snow discussion

[oldranger]

Winter of 92-93 I lived in mammoth but never had the closures like experienced this winter. Snow fell regularly but seldom over 18" per 24 hours. Can't remember whether it was 92 or 93 when a bunch of us hiked Lincoln Mt (no lift back then) and skied the Avy chutes. I stopped to catch my breath about 1/2 down and I was up to my armpits in the snow! We all gathered at the Canyon Lodge like blithering idiots we were so stoked about the run.

In May I did my first and only Trans Sierra ski trip. First night was at the old Onion Valley Guard Station (since wiped out by an avalanche) then next 2 nights at the Charlotte Lake Ranger Station (nice to have contacts). Also that Month I rode down to Devils Post Pile in a Mammoth Piston Bully that was pulling down a couple of long stringers that were to be used to repair a bridge across the San Joaquin that had been partially destroyed due to the extreme snow load that winter. Spent 2 nights down there and like at Charlotte only the peak of the roof was visible and it was a 10 foot drop down to the base of the door. We had dowels and rock bars and were able to roll the stringers across the remaining stringer so when the remaining materials were delivered the bridge could then be repaired. The second day we skied to the hot springs an spent a few hours bs ing and drinking beer. The last day 2 of us were pulled up the road on our skis behind a snowmobile.

That summer was my second as a backcountry ranger in SEKI. Just after the first of june and before I was on duty I skied into my then ranger station at Rowell Meadow from just off the road between Grant and Lodgepole. On return I broke a ski right under my boot. which wasn't too bad at first as the snow was still frozen. I decided the quickest way out was to head to Lodgpole. Once I cleared the last ridge I put on one ski and traversed back and forth thru the trees until the snow got too thin. Then walked the rest of the way out. I had no idea how I would get back to the car as when I left the road had still been closed. Fortunately the road had just been opened that day and one of the employees was heading in the direction I needed to go. Karma!

For some reason I can't remember I had 3 of the same skis. So my next skiing adventure was on duty a a couple of weeks later. After our law enforcement refresher held in Lodgepole was completed I hiked then skied to Pear Lake where I spent the night. Next day I skied over the Tablelands to the Kaweah/Kings divide where I should have been able to look down on Cresent Lake. But just as I arrived I was enveloped by a cloud that reduced my visibility to about 10 feet. Because this location was virtually a 3 way divide with the Tablelands behind me and supposedly Crowley Canyon in front of me and Horse Creek slightly left with no visibility I wasn't convinced I might not veer off to the left. Just as was about to pull out my compass the cloud moved on and I could see clearly my route to Cresent Lake and my clear s. facing niche at the outlet of the lake that was the only spot clear of snow to camp. Due to the complex terrain and all the crap on the snow in the forest I strapped my skis on my pack and post holed my way to within about 3/4 Mile from Rowell where the snow thinned to patches the rest of the way to the cabin. To be continued!

[Matthewkphx]

What’s a Piston Bully?

[commonloon]

What’s a Piston Bully?

Big snow plow. It is what ran over Jeremy Renner.

[bobby49]

Pistenbully is the spelling, if you want to look it up.

[CeloTX]

Geez i grabbed a July 10th permit for Rae Lakes Loop. Sounds like Glen pass will be impassable during our trip. Any insight?

[c9h13no3]

Geez i grabbed a July 10th permit for Rae Lakes Loop. Sounds like Glen pass will be impassable during our trip. Any insight?

Define impassable? That is on the PCT, and there will certainly be a path stomped out in the snow. The trail is also built fairly intelligently, avoiding the steepest slopes. Even if you're a novice with snow gear, it wouldn't be a bad one to start with.

The real problem could be crossing the Kings River at Upper Paradise Valley without a bridge. That'd worry me more than the snow.

[CeloTX]

Yeah we have very little experience fording rivers as well as dealing with snow/ice on steep trails. Food for thought.

[texan]

For me, because I fish, I wouldn't go over Glen Pass until August this year because of too much snow and lakes will be mostly or partially frozen at the beginning of July. But that's me, I think a lot people who just started backpacking over the last few years will be very surprised how much snow there will be this year in July, but you never know what's going to happen, it depends on how the snow melts.

Texan

[kpeter]

I've been scrutinizing the charts to find the closest comparison years in snowpack, so when we reference past trail reports we can make comparisons. I've been using the handy "check the box" "build a graph" from CDEC here:

https://cdec.water.ca.gov/snowapp/swcchart.action

There are really only a few years that are somewhat comparable to this year.

1982-83 was the maximum snow pack year state wide. Currently snowpack is ahead of that year in the south, a little behind it in the north, and roughly equivalent statewide. In 82-83, however, there was additional accumulation even into April, which is extremely unusual. No way of knowing whether we will follow suit and break the record or not, but the fact that we are in that ballpark is sobering.

2016-17 is probably the best match, so far. Snowpack in the north and central Sierra are tracking almost perfectly with this year, but snowpack in the south is is well above 2016-17 levels.

2018-19 was significantly above average. That year tracks almost exactly with our current snowfall in the north, but that year is well behind our current accumulation in the central and southern Sierra.

2010-11 was modestly above average, but it is tracking way behind this year's snowpack in all three regions.

Conclusion: when checking past trip reports to get ideas of what conditions are likely to be this year, trip reports from summer 2017 in the central or northern part of the Sierra are probably going to give us the best idea, 2019 reports from the north may help as well. If planning trips to the southern part of the Sierra 1983 would be the only thing comparable, but since we will find few trip reports that far back, I'd suggest taking 2017 and adding a couple of weeks waiting to it.

For example, here is Big McGee Lake, September 1, 2017. It was swarming with mosquitoes and surrounded with snowbanks, but the snow made it photogenic.

DSC02569.jpg

And here is Big McGee Lake, August 7, 2020, in a dry year. Not a bug nor a lakeside snowbank in sight, though there were a few hanging on on shadowed north slopes.

DSC05211.jpg

Of course, much can still change depending on whether the storms continue into April as they did in 1983, and how fast the melt in May and June turn out to be. Keep watching those CDEC charts.

[Harlen]

Good Morning kpeter, and thank a lot for that snow-year comparison. And thank you oldranger for a wonderful story of your escapades in the heavy snow of 92-93. We eagerly await the sequel.
When you wrote:

Once I cleared the last ridge I put on one ski and traversed back and forth thru the trees until the snow got too thin.

are we to imagine a high speed, Bode Miller sort of traversing? Cheers, Ian.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LatVt6F8whQ