2022 a Below Average Snow Year

[Carne_DelMuerto]

This year is quickly trending to be the one that loses the snowpack the quickest. We're in the 10 - 20th percentile for snowpack for the date in the Northern Sierra.

While only anecdotal, the amount of snowmelt at Sugarbowl Ski Area from March 19 to March 26 was staggering. I'm just hoping it doesn't all melt before Easter.

Central Sierra got the most out of the storm Sunday/Monday.

[TahoeJeff]

The snow is melting extremely fast here in SLT as well.

[c9h13no3]

This year is quickly trending to be the one that loses the snowpack the quickest. We're in the 10 - 20th percentile for snowpack for the date in the Northern Sierra. It's looking like we could have a very early start to the backpacking season and... fire season.

Yeah, somehow it's trending even faster than last year in some places. Spots that held snow last year on April 1st like the south face of Mt Reba, or the south side of Round Top are starting to melt out. That heat wave in March was not appreciated!

April looks bad from a snow perspective as well. Hiking season could get started really early

[alpinemike]

Yes it absolutely is. Just check out the SWE at CSSL (Central Sierra Snow Lab) on Donner Summit. That rate of melt was experienced everywhere!

The black line is this year and the lighter green line is last year! I wish we were at last year's SWE levels.

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Unless something really drastic happens in late April I really think hiking season will be coming very early this year. And even if we get a big storm later in April I doubt it will do much to snowpack because of next week's heat wave decimating what's there now.

Get your hiking in while you can this year!

[Wandering Daisy]

The precipitation map forecast for April showers shows 33-40% probability of lower than average or "leaning less than average". In other words, 60-67% probability for normal or above. I would not give up on April showers yet. A lot of rain this winter has been hit-and-miss instead spread out evenly over large areas. In Sacramento we are exactly at average rain so far.

The snowpack is in worse shape than precipitation. Snowpack is more like 40% average. Snow has melted earlier at elevations under about 10,000. Some gages got 10" snow the last storm but were back to pre-storm depths within a day. The higher ones had about half the snow remaining yesterday.

By the way, has anyone heard about the probability of monsoonal flows this summer?

[alpinemike]

That's a really good point @wanderingdaisy. You're absolutely right that it's been very hit or miss. I'm a Atmospheric Scientist and I forecast snowfall for various places in California and I'll admit this year really threw everyone for a loop with the huge October and December and then a total shut down of snow. Only one other year comes to mind that did that and that was 96-97 but even that year had a lot of snow in January and then it stopped. For us it stopped in December.

I will be watching closely the monsoon trends this year. That could either help or hurt us with the fire danger depending on how much dry lightning we see. I have not seen any predictions yet and I think it's a little early to make that forecast. It's been a few years now since we've seen a totally dry summer...

[erutan]

April showers could end up being worse in terms of summer fire risk - more vegetation but it'll dry out due to lack of sustained snow melt. :/

'19 was a pretty dry summer if I recall correctly, one short storm in late July and then nothing until the second half of September. Not sure when a totally dry one was, but having a single mid-summer storm seems to be within what I heard historical norms being.

[SSSdave]

From decades of photographer experience after similar winters, would add one can expect greenery and wildflowers will be generally subpar, out of sync with perennial shrubs in a conserve water in roots mode plus limited leafing just to maintain over summer. Usually areas with good displays on wet years will just have token plants blooming. Whitewater rapid and waterfall subjects will have a narrow window with less than optimal displays. Not many of the prime trips I've had queued up will happen this summer. Trips to craggy Sierra Crest peak areas won't be as aesthetic with dapple adornment of snow except during a narrow period late spring into early summer.

A wiser quarry will those uncommon lakes that are relatively unblocked from low elevation sun positions so they can reflect colorful sunrise and or sunset skies.


For example Leopold Lake in Emigrant. Not all such waters have names and many no-name small snow ephemeral melt water ponds offer magnificent possibilities if one explores glaciated granite bedrock zones on topos and Google Earth a bit. For instance the bodies just west of Mercer Peak in Emigrant ought be an excellent late May choice though Cherry Creek way down in its canyon, a weak reflection versus my June 2017 backpack. Such may also require knowing sun altitude and azimuth data at specific times of summer when landscape is not blocked early/late. For instance Spire Lake up Morgan Creek. Otherwise, the north and south shores of Mono Lake always offer accessible prospects.

[dave54]

The April-July updates to the outlook links I posted earlier are out. A new four month outlook is posted every month.
The biggest change is southern California is looking like a normal to above normal year for monsoonal moisture (summer thunderstorms), and the expected moisture from them may help mitigate the fire danger from the dry winter. No mention of monsoonal moisture in the northern outlook.

For these outlooks, Southern California is Stanislaus NF/Monterey south to the Mexico border. Northern California is Eldorado NF/Lake Tahoe north to Oregon state line. Toiyabe NF/Bridgeport is part of the Great Basin outlook.

[c9h13no3]

The precipitation map forecast for April showers shows 33-40% probability of lower than average or "leaning less than average". In other words, 60-67% probability for normal or above.

That's not exactly how you interpret that chart, but yes, there is still a significant probability that we have a normal or better April. It just isn't the most likely scenario.

And since it's better to be lucky than good, it looks like we're beating the odds the next two weeks with a solid set of storms. Again, nothing that will really affect summer, but it may push out the start of hiking season in the north of the range & southern Cascades a few weeks. Only 5" in Mammoth so far, so the bulk of the Sierra isn't getting the foot+ that places like Kirkwood, Lassen & Shasta are.