2022 a Below Average Snow Year

[c9h13no3]

This year was weird. We got literally half a year's worth of snowfall in about 3 weeks. So even though we had one of the driest January & February months on record, it was still hard to predict a low snow year with such a huge head start in December. But it doesn't look like a "Miracle March" is coming, or at least one big enough to change your summer plans.

The winter of 19-20 and 20-21 are pretty good comparisons, as both were below average snow years. And those years probably bracket how things could play out going forward. 2020 was a wet spring, with several storms in March & April keeping the snowpack in upper elevations healthy. So even though it was a below average year, a lot of the high passes held onto snow into June & July.

2021 on the other hand was a dry spring, which lead to some crazy reports like this one of hiking out to 3rd lake in April, or this one of dry meadows on May 1st.

2022_Snow_year.png

The bottom line is that early entry should again be possible this year. Spring will modulate things, but late May to June shouldn't be all that bad for backpacking. Peak flow for most Sierra rivers is predicted to be mid-May. Wildfires will again start to be an issue in August.

[commonloon]

Agree, but still hoping for big March, cool temps and occasional storms into spring. One can only hope.

[ironmike]

Might be some white stuff this weekend

[c9h13no3]

Might be some white stuff this weekend

Yeah, but not a huge storm. Measured in inches, not feet. These small refreshes do a ton for the quality of the skiing up there, but they don't really alter the snowpack picture.

Got another period of high pressure, then the back half of March is kinda up in the air.

[TahoeJeff]

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM
PST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches,
with 5 to 10 inches above 7000 feet west of Highway 89. Winds
gusting up to 40 mph, except 50 to 90 mph for exposed areas
along the Sierra crest.

* WHERE...Greater Lake Tahoe Area.

* WHEN...From 5 PM Friday to 1 PM PST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the Friday evening commute. Strong
winds could cause localized tree damage.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Additional light snow is possible through
the afternoon Saturday. Check with CalTrans for the latest
road condition information.

[Wandering Daisy]

The spring melt (snowmelt and peak stream flows) impacts backpackers as much as the total amount of snow (which is important for total water resources). Whether conditions in May-June this year will be like last year's depends on high Sierra Spring temperatures. Too soon to tell. But yes, likely earlier than "average" access simply because of so little snow overall. What could change that is a really big "March Miracle", which looks dubious.

Overall, I fear another bad year for wildfires. I simply am not going to reserve permits for September trips; will wait and see. mid-July to Labor Day I plan on being in Wyoming.

[mort]

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Additional light snow is possible through
the afternoon Saturday. Check with CalTrans for the latest
road condition information.

Tahoe
Giant Forest
Awanee Meadow

[rlown]

forgot to mention the huge boulder they blew apart and had to clean up.

[dave54]

From the North Ops Outlook for fire danger in 2022:

"Confidence is moderate to high for an early start to the significant large fire season."

https://gacc.nifc.gov/oncc/predictive/o ... k_NOps.pdf


Here is the outlook for Southern Cal and southern Sierra. Note the 1000 hour fuels (dead wood >3" in diameter). Already at record lows and close to mid-summer averages.

https://gacc.nifc.gov/oscc/predictive/o ... ssment.pdf

[alpinemike]

This year is quickly trending to be the one that loses the snowpack the quickest. We're in the 10 - 20th percentile for snowpack for the date in the Northern Sierra. It's looking like we could have a very early start to the backpacking season and... fire season.