Help with Planning - Summer Conditions/Routes - 2023

[Balsam]

Hello! I am happy to have access to this wonderful bulletin board again! I'm an experienced SEKI backpacker and very much enjoy off trail travel. This summer, I am leading a group trip with friends, some with lesser experience but all have been backpacking for years and all are fit. We're all around 60 yo. All the routes I've outlined below are routes I've done in the past, but under probably better conditions than we might expect this summer. On the other hand, I know that snow does make things easier sometimes.

We're thinking of heading out it at the end of July, but I'm unsure what to plan for given the snow. Passes (on trail and off trail) and river crossings are on my mind. We might be able to push into mid Aug as a start date. Later? I'd love some help thinknig about possible conditions. I have 2 different possibilities in mind for a 12 DAY TRIP:

1) Using the Big SEKI Loop (clockwise and over Colby Pass at the end) as a base route and adding an off-trail segment(s) as possible given conditions. (e.g. cut through Lake Basin, cut across Milestone Pass, etc). Worse case scenario would be staying on trail the whole way - AND that would still be a great trip! On-trail Questions -- Cartridge Ck crossing, Palasade Ck crossing, Colby Pass, etc? Off trail Questions - crossing Palisade Creek to access Ampitheater Lake, crossing into Upper Basin, Milestone Pass or travel in general along the Sierra High Route to get to Deadman Cy. Other obstacles I havent considered? I could add in 60 Lakes Basin - I havent done that before.

2) Shephard Pass to Upper Kern and possibly over to Wallace Lake area. More of a free form trip. Lots of exploring and messing around. How might that cornice on Shephard Pass be say on July 17? Later in July? How might travel around upper Kern be? Wallace Lake?

I appreciate the thoughts of this wise and experienced group! Alternate ideas and dates welcome!

Thank you!

[Gogd]

WAY too early to predict summer conditions. Lots of snow right now, but plenty of time for it to melt away. The biggest affect on summer conditions will be the amount of snow fall late in the season. Snow lingering through the summer is often the result of a big storm in April.

Ed

[Balsam]

Thank you! That's an interesting perspective. We're in the 6 month permitting window now so I'll probably go ahead and get something.

Any thoughts on what's a better choice between Copper Ck/Big SEKI and Shephard Pass? The former is a nice loop intro to the area for folks, but we might get into trouble with stream crossings and there's less latitude for altering itinerary on the fly. Shephard has that cornice but theres a lot of rambling to be done over that way. Thoughts?

[Wandering Daisy]

I cannot imagine creeks being anywhere near peak flow end of July. The last few years, monsoonal rains have caused more problems than peak flow due to snowmelt in late July. Some trails were washed out. I have not heard a forecast (or guess) if we are going to have another monsoonal summer or not.

You do not have to use Shepherd Pass to get into the upper Kern. I have gone in from Onion Valley. It adds a day but the route is very scenic and a good trail all the way. It may be a bit late, but why not try to get a Whitney Zone permit? Yes, it is crowded, but it quickly gets you into the PCT/JMT and Wallace Lake. Cottonwood is easy to get permits and getting to Wallace Creek is on the PCT, with minimal elevation gain compered to going over Shepherd Pass. It does make a long approach.

Are you planning on fishing? If so Upper Kern would be my choice.

If it turns out to be a high snowpack year, does everyone in your group have some snow experience? If not, it may be worthwhile to give everyone a snow skills refresher.

[Gogd]

I cannot imagine creeks being anywhere near peak flow end of July. The last few years, monsoonal rains have caused more problems than peak flow due to snowmelt in late July. Some trails were washed out.

Generally true. Our trip in July, 2017, coincided with a very intense storm that dumped up to six inches of hail on us in the Muir Pass vicinity, engorging the upper Kings, making our trail down into Le Conte Canyon impassible for a day. And I've had this experience with big rain on other occassions. Nevertheless, a lingering snowpack can also be troublesome. On a mid July trip in 2017 to several watersheds above Bishop I witnessed both South Fork Bishop Creek and North Fork Big Pine Creek were roaring, unsafe to cross in most places. I was not expecting this to be the case - after all it was July - but if the season leading up to a trip is mild, then a heat wave sets in, its affect on a lingering snowpack can loose impressive amounts of run off.

Ed

[mkbgdns]

2017 was a big snowpack. this year's explosive start could peter out to simply above average. too soon to tell.

[terrapin]

1) Using the Big SEKI Loop (clockwise and over Colby Pass at the end) as a base route and adding an off-trail segment(s) as possible given conditions. (e.g. cut through Lake Basin, cut across Milestone Pass, etc). Worse case scenario would be staying on trail the whole way - AND that would still be a great trip! On-trail Questions -- Cartridge Ck crossing, Palasade Ck crossing, Colby Pass, etc? Off trail Questions - crossing Palisade Creek to access Ampitheater Lake, crossing into Upper Basin, Milestone Pass or travel in general along the Sierra High Route to get to Deadman Cy. Other obstacles I havent considered? I could add in 60 Lakes Basin - I havent done that before.

If "Cartridge Ck crossing" is referring to the crossing along the Middle Fork trail, there's a bridge. The Palisade Creek crossing at the JMT junction should be OK in late July (it's very easy in low snow years) but no guarantees with the winter we've had so far. There's supposed to be a wider, easier crossing upstream that involves some bushwhacking to reach.

Another option would be to follow the Sierra High Route from the Copper Creek Trail to Upper Basin and then continue on the "Big SEKI Loop" route over Colby Pass.

[terrapin]

Cottonwood is easy to get permits...

If only that were true! Permits are now gone within seconds when they become available, thanks to the JMT demand. They have been easier to obtain in the (temporary for COVID, but now seemingly permanent) two-week "walk-up" window, but don't tell anyone!

[creekfeet]

Starting out of Copper Creek gives you more flexibility on a start date. Getting a walk-up permit is never an issue for this TH (or just about any west side TH really). Regarding Colby Pass, the river crossing near Junction Meadow gets wild in high water years. I don't recall it being particularly deep, but the river braids out into 4-5 different segments to cross, so there's some margin for error. Also, as of 2019 the Colby Pass Trail was more or less abandoned. The lower section was significantly overgrown, and the trail petered out in pats of the upper section. Expect to travel closer to an x-country pace than a trail pace.