Corona Virus

[Harlen]

In the middle of this Pandemic blackout of Sierra opportunity (?), here is the enticing/maddening, most recent NOAA forecast, centered on the Tuolumne Meadows area at 8,600'-- forecast for 4/5 - 4/6:

Sunday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 36. South southwest wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.

Sunday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 13. South southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible.

Monday Snow before 11am, then snow showers after 11am. Some thunder is also possible. High near 34. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Monday Night Snow showers likely, mainly before 11pm. Some thunder is also possible. Cloudy, with a low around 10. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

So at the high end of the forecast that equals a new 29" of beautiful snow-- The Tuolumne winter rangers in their Update of April 2 had this to inspire us with:

Although the park remains closed, we are still out and about performing the April 1 snow surveys. The unsettled weather this week provided for one of the most scenic commutes we have ever had. With the warmer temperatures, the convective clouds billowed around the tops of the mountains as intermittent snow squalls left six inches in their wake. The peace these moments bring can last a lifetime. At one point we looked up to a windless grey sky where flakes as big as feathers drifted down. The only reminder that it was not a dream was their sound as they touched down upon our nylon jackets.

Oh well..... everything ready to go-- nowhere. We have certainly never experienced anything like this grounding, apart from injuries I suppose; looks like the March Miracle went all for nought. This above may sound crass-- lamenting my inability to ski into YNP, my apologies to anyone who has been directly affected, I'm sure I would feel different if any friends or family were sick with this. I intend to give blood, I will volunteer if it becomes needed, but other than that, what can we do? While doing nothing, why couldn't we fill our car with enough food and gas for the entire trip, drive to a park entrance away from everyone, and head into the mountains for awhile to do what we live for? There may be very good reason; I stand ready to eat my words and admit fault... but???

Lets hope the Pandemic Storm blows away, and the winter weather holds on.

[Wandering Daisy]

March (or April) miracles may be wasted for ski trips or current enjoyment, but it DOES help keep the Sierra from drying out so much this summer. Keep your fingers crossed; hopefully we will be able to enjoy it later this season.

I do not think you are crass. Although I do not do winter backpack or ski, this is my season to coastal hike and I dearly miss that too.

Interesting note; Wyoming now says those with out-of-state plates will have to self-quarantine 14 days once in the state. Lots of dispersed camping; easy to do even if not backpacking all that time. It is still snowy and cold there; ski areas are closed; the "purpose" of the rule is to "discourage" out of state people from coming in. If that holds for the summer, then I can drive to the trailhead, park, and backpack my 14-day quarantine. Then am legal to go into town for a beer and resupply. There are no permits or quotas on Wind River trails, which allows a lot of trip flexibility. Tetons, a National Park, an entirely different story.

PS- For you, I bumped up that trip report on southern part of the Sierra High Route in the backpack sub-forum. Not sure you saw that.

[franklin411]

Interesting note; Wyoming now says those with out-of-state plates will have to self-quarantine 14 days once in the state. Lots of dispersed camping; easy to do even if not backpacking all that time. It is still snowy and cold there; ski areas are closed; the "purpose" of the rule is to "discourage" out of state people from coming in. If that holds for the summer, then I can drive to the trailhead, park, and backpack my 14-day quarantine. Then am legal to go into town for a beer and resupply. There are no permits or quotas on Wind River trails, which allows a lot of trip flexibility. Tetons, a National Park, an entirely different story.

PS- For you, I bumped up that trip report on southern part of the Sierra High Route in the backpack sub-forum. Not sure you saw that.

That probably wouldn't work. They generally demand the name of an address or hotel where you're staying, likely under some threat of punishment if you don't actually stay/reside there. It's a great system, from their point of view. It keeps outsiders out, although state officials seem to have no compunction about taking money from outsiders in the form of Federal spending. It's also extremely un-Constitutional, but nobody cares about rights when they're afraid. Human nature is an interesting thing, isn't it?

[franklin411]

Dave, Why are you buying into this so much? Just a bad flu. Too much bad media time?

The only thing that makes this worse than the regular flu is that everyone's getting it all at once, so people notice the death toll. If the seasonal flu death toll was announced as breathlessly as the coronavirus death toll, people would panic every flu season.

[maverick]

To me the biggest difference is, that 1 in 4 people are asymptomatic, these people so no symptoms, but are shedding the virus, infecting others unknowingly.

[rlown]

Still no reason to panic. We shed stuff all the time.. Gloves/masks should not be the new normal.

[TahoeJeff]

Gloves/masks should not be the new normal.

Nor should be getting arrested for paddleboarding solo out in the ocean...

[TahoeJeff]

[rlown]

Seems more are intersted in gun purchases than masks these days.

[grampy]

Okay, lets do some simple math to show the Covid-19 outbreak is NOT the same as influenza.
The CDC estimates that 8% of the U.S. population contracts the flu in an “average” year. That works out to 26.4 million Americans. Seems reasonable.
To eliminate some of the accusations of “politically-motivated” manipulation of the numbers, let’s look at Switzerland. Their total cases reported on April 5 were 21,100 with the count of Corona-related deaths at 715. This works out to a mortality rate of 3.4% (for REPORTED cases). One can argue that the Swiss (like other countries) must just be severely under-testing; this is doubtful, as Switzerland is to the Pharmaceutical industry what Silicon Valley is to tech.
But let’s knock down the 3.4% mortality rate to 1.0%, just for kicks. Apply that rate to the “average” U.S. flu season of 26.4 million infected, and you get 264,000 dead Americans. Compare this to a “bad” flu season (2017-2018 season had as many as 45 million flu cases in the U.S. - per the CDC - with 61,000 deaths. Clearly, Covid-19 would NOT be the same as “just a bad flu” if we all went back to “business as usual” right now.

All that said, I agree with folks stating that
1. total # of U.S. cases are under-reported due to lack of testing.
2. Most of the “untested, but recovered” cases are mild (obviously, because they don’t require treatment).

Work is being done to establish accurate “antibody” testing (to identify individuals who have recovered from Covid-19 and are now immune to immediate re-infection). Until THIS sort of testing is available, folks should think twice before they demand that everything go “back to normal”. Not saying we should (or can) be locked up all summer, but don’t ridicule people if they continue to want some protective measures.