long range...cold storm Nov 10/11 weekend | High Sierra Topix  

long range...cold storm Nov 10/11 weekend

Discussion related to Sierra Nevada current and forecast conditions, as well as general precautions and safety information. Trail conditions, fire/smoke reports, mosquito reports, weather and snow conditions, stream crossing information, and more.
User avatar

long range...cold storm Nov 10/11 weekend

Postby SSSdave » Fri Nov 02, 2012 7:14 pm

Heads up for those interested in fall leaf or storm landscape photography.

Hanford NWS long range forecast is showing likelyhood of a signficant storm the following Nov 10-11 weekend:

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THURSDAY WILL DEEPEN AND BECOME A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM ACROSS
CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. STRONG COOLING WILL TAKE
PLACE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING 20-25
DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH IT. THERE ARE STILL TIMING AND
STRENGTH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS WERE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT. SHOWERS COULD START AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE SIERRA NEVADA...AND THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
DISTRICT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND FOR ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION. WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING RAPIDLY...EXPECT SNOW
LEVELS TO LOWER TO 4500 FEET BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

This current weekend will be mostly sunny or partly cloudy as was the last couple weekends. I've been waiting for some more stormy and or cloudy weather in order to get in some late understory fall leaf photography day hiking in the lower western southern Sierra areas. Areas with black oak, Pacific dogwood, and bigleaf maple. Such work absolutely requires diffuse light. I'm nearly hitting the ceiling with my accrued PTO so may take off at short notice at least Friday too. And there may be some opportunity for storm landscapes too. Definetly time to check my foul weather gear.



User avatar
SSSdave
Topix Fanatic
 
Posts: 1965
Joined: Thu Nov 17, 2005 11:18 pm
Location: Silicon Valley
Experience: N/A

User avatar

Re: long range...cold storm Nov 10/11 weekend

Postby SSSdave » Mon Nov 05, 2012 1:29 pm

Looking more promising now for cloudy conditions I need for under forest canopy photography. Shows low snow level though precipitation is forecast to be light.

===================================
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
917 AM PST MON NOV 5 2012

...THE BIG CHANGE IN THE PATTERN REMAINS PROJECTED TO BEGIN
ON LATE WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES QUICKLY EAST AND HEIGHTS
CRASH AS A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION
WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND THEN THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
KERN COUNTY BY THURSDAY EVENING.

AT THIS TIME, THE EVENT WILL FEATURE A SHARP COOL DOWN, STRONG
WINDS AND SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THE
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THIS STORM, TOPOGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IN THE
SIERRA WILL NOT BE IDEAL AND LATEST GFS SHOWS AROUND 0.50 INCHES
OF LIQUID IN YOSEMITE WITH UP TO 0.25 INCHES IN MERCED COUNTY.
LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH ARE PROJECTED. THE ECMWF MODEL IS NOT
EVEN THIS GENEROUS WITH ONLY AROUND 0.25 INCHES AT YOSEMITE AND
AROUND 0.10 INCHES IN THE SJV BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST BY
SATURDAY. FORECAST MODELS DRIVE THE TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA BY
LATE SATURDAY AND COLD AIR LEFT IN ITS WAKE WILL ALLOW FOR THE
COLDEST MORNINGS OF THE SEASON. OVER THE KERN COUNTY DESERT A
FREEZE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY MORNING AND IF WINDS DIE
DOWN SOONER FOR SUNDAY MORNING INSTEAD.

SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON-

.FRIDAY...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. WINDY. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT.
HIGHS 35 TO 45 AT 5000 FEET...26 TO 36 AT 8000 FEET.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. COLDER. LOWS 22 TO 32 AT 5000 FEET...12 TO 22 AT
8000 FEET.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS 34 TO 44 AT 5000 FEET...26 TO 36 AT 8000 FEET.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. COLDER. LOWS 13 TO 23 AT
5000 FEET...5 TO 15 AT 8000 FEET.
.VETERANS DAY...SUNNY. NOT AS COLD. HIGHS 39 TO 49 AT 5000 FEET...
33 TO 43 AT 8000 FEET.
User avatar
SSSdave
Topix Fanatic
 
Posts: 1965
Joined: Thu Nov 17, 2005 11:18 pm
Location: Silicon Valley
Experience: N/A

User avatar

Re: long range...cold storm Nov 10/11 weekend

Postby SSSdave » Sat Nov 10, 2012 7:12 pm

Was finding it difficult to motivate myself enough to drive over to the Sierra after my m-f work week. Any notion of going down to the Tule River areas for 3 days was gone but still considered a Saturday morning closer destination like Yosemite Valley. I had doubts clouds would hang around enough on Saturday morning for diffuse light making the $50 worth of gas worthwhile. Woke up at 4:30am, got on the puter, and brought up various weather information that looked more promising.

Since 90s during fall I've been trying to get to Calaveras Big Trees State Park when dogwood color is peaking during a day with good diffuse light. And have gambled several times when that was possible only to get there and have too much contrasty sun. So about 5am went back to bed but it was gnawing at me. You see what is better for illuminating a dark forest sequoia grove understory than just diffuse cloud light is diffuse light after a fresh snowfall when the whole forest floor is white. And the snow level was down to 2500 feet. And that only occurs in early November when dogwood leaves are peaking in fall color maybe once every 5 to 10 years. But I only wanted to go back to sleep. Had a rough week at work. 15 minutes later I jump up and turn on the lights. Did not feel enthused but could not deny the logic.

6:07am my Forester is out on the road in San Jose and 155 miles further I reach the state park at 9am. Jackpot! 6 to 10 inches of fresh fluffy snow consolidated down to shin depth, no wind, temp 30F, perfect diffuse clouds above. Second car in the lot. All forest understory areas were reading EV10 to EV12 that is about 3EV higher than just usual diffuse cloud conditions. Exposed 10 sheets of Provia 100F that will get back from development by next week.

A SX130 pic of one of my dogwood subjects:

Image
User avatar
SSSdave
Topix Fanatic
 
Posts: 1965
Joined: Thu Nov 17, 2005 11:18 pm
Location: Silicon Valley
Experience: N/A

User avatar

Re: long range...cold storm Nov 10/11 weekend

Postby SSSdave » Mon Nov 12, 2012 1:51 pm

Storm forecast for late next weekend firming up:

THE GULF OF ALASKA SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE MOIST SWLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. BUT THE MAIN WEATHER EVENT...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS...WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE DEEP UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. THE MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH
THE DETAILS OF THIS POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM...PRIMARILY WITH THE TIMING. BUT THERE IS AGREEMENT IN
GENERAL FOR A POSSIBLE WET AND WINDY STORM ON OR ABOUT MONDAY THE
19TH.
User avatar
SSSdave
Topix Fanatic
 
Posts: 1965
Joined: Thu Nov 17, 2005 11:18 pm
Location: Silicon Valley
Experience: N/A


Return to Conditions Reports and Information



Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests