Advice for September dodging the worst smoke

[Mtncaddis]

I nearly didn't post this because none of us know exactly what the fires and smoke are going to do, but... I have spent the past year positioning myself to have September free to roam the Sierra and after spending the past couple months watching the webcams, smoke/fire reports I'm having thoughts about going elsewhere. I don't want to pass up this chance to be in the Sierra but I don't want to do long miles in an N95 mask either. I want to ask for suggestions of trails with the theory that areas around 9k and up have better air quality and less hours of dense smoke. If those of you who have spent considerable time hiking in smokey conditions believe my theory is wrong please let me know. Photos from recent trip reports and the Tuolumne webcam seem to support this theory.

Here's some more info on my experience and situation: I think I probably fit the Level 3 backpacker description. I have done some x-country in other ranges but not in the Sierra, and I'm not comfortable with a lot of exposure on steep grades, especially with loose footing. I'm comfortable with x-country in higher basins with few trees and wouldn't mind some beginner level passes. Want to play it safe since I'm alone. Before the smoke really set in thick I was going to post asking for trip itinerary advice with the heading "Rescue me from the Alphabet Trails!" because I have covered the PCT from Sonora Pass to Crabtree/Whitney, the HST and JMT. Have covered some trails out of Tuolumne and Lyell Canyon. My plan for this solo trip was to enter via the High Trail near Mammoth, explore Minaret lakes and then head south exploring side trails and basins, but now with the smoke I prefer to stay closer to exit points even if it means hopping out and getting different permits (I'll have a vehicle with room to sleep in it when needed). I'd really like to spend more time hiking than fishing or hanging around camp. I can carry 10 days of food in the canister. Normally I prefer to maximize my time in the backcountry but with the virus around, and responsibilities back home that require my attention weekly, it makes sense for me to hike out periodically for phone signal.
Thanks in advance for any suggestions.

[Wandering Daisy]

https://fire.airnow.gov/?lat=37.6616227 ... 27&zoom=10

This website is useful. Smoke prediction is not extremely accurate but I check this map a lot before a trip.

Also, smoke often slides down the Owens Valley but when you get above 10,000 feet it clears. Starting at a high elevation trailhead helps.

[c9h13no3]

Also, smoke often slides down the Owens Valley but when you get above 10,000 feet it clears. Starting at a high elevation trailhead helps.

This is often the pattern, but it can also be the opposite. It just depends on wind patterns, where the smoke is in the atmosphere. Last year in October, it was the opposite. The trend in the past few weeks has been for high elevations to be better in the Sierra, but I'm not sure how bankable that trend is.

If you're farther than a couple days out, all you can do is pick a spot farthest away from fires (currently I'd say around Big Pine). The east side of the crest also tends to have a bit cleaner air, since the big fires are generally west of the crest.

But new fires also start all the time, winds shift. If you have a ton invested in this trip (plane tickets, big chunks of time off from work, ect.) and it needs to go right, I'd pick another destination. You could also do multiple shorter trips. But I, personally, think getting on a plane and visiting somewhere 2-3 days walk from the trailhead is a bit risky for me if you have alternatives. The odds of walking 15 miles with an N95 with hazy scenery aren't worth the risk.

Whatever you do, don't go to Tahoe :P

[cgundersen]

Mtncaddis,
Having tried to dodge smoke for 8 days on our last trip, I sure get your concern: my wife and I expressly chose to reduce the more-strenuous parts of our trip and stay as high as possible, but the smoke still vitiated the experience. Then again, we live in LA and it tends to be purgatory during August, so it's a tossup. BTW, that web link Daisy pointed out is brilliant, not so much for predictive purposes but to give a snapshot of conditions that can help to decide whether it's worth the effort/risk. Of course, webcams (like those on the Windy website) really help, too. Good luck! Cameron
PS> I'm heading out with a pal next week and bringing a ND95 just in case......

[erutan]

I’d just stick near passes along 395 / the Sierra Crest. Dusy, Sabrina, Ritter range lakes, Big Pine Forks (though that’s closer to the French Fire).

A better choice is to make alternate plans - I’m personally leaning towards hopping away from the range. It's on the edge of being acceptable for me, but my partner had burning lungs and a headache last trip (we masked up for our final climb out).

For future seasons keep up with the annual snowpack levels - this year was at single digit percentages in late spring. A smokefree September was long odds and I’m surprised we got as much time as we did.

There's a collection of links/resources @ https://sierra-conditions.erutan.net/conditions/fire/

[BrianF]

I have always planned my weeklong backpack for after Labor day to avoid crowds and mosquitos, but it seems now inevitable that there will be smoke issues by then- Got smoked out in previous years and now considering cancelling this year's and going elsewhere. I may need to start planning for early season, Especially if the snow pack is low. I already cancelled my reservation for northern Yosemite and got a permit for farther south and I'll keep checking the smoke/air maps and webcams - and checking High Sierra Topix of course for real world reports

[erutan]

It really does depend on snow levels, 17 and 19 were fine for example. I was assuming this summer would end earlier based on the single digit of annual snowpack. The good news is mosquitos aren't bad in low winters, I've only had a couple pockets were they were bad even backpacking in June this year.

[Mtncaddis]

I appreciate each of you that have responded! I will eventually let you guys know what I decide to do. Erutan, like you I followed the snowfall reports through the winter and wasn't surprised when the fires started as early as they did. I highly recommend California Backcountry Report podcast for any of you who haven't given it a listen during snow season. alertwildfire.org has some really helpful webcams under "Inland Empire & Eastern Sierra" that are worthy of some scrolling too.

[chulavista]

This year I just happened to climb Cathedral Peak the same week in July that I had last done it in 2017 (massive snow year). I was comparing pictures and the 2021 version had blue skies and no snow while the 2017 version had lots of snow and what looks like a time lapse of an atomic bomb detonation in the background from the Detwiler fire.

For me, with all that time I'd just go where the air quality is good. The Sierra Nevada is awesome but not so much better than other destinations where I'd want to risk damaging organs in my body.

[rgliebe]

Anything more than a day hike is a bit risky under the current conditions. The wind can shift in a day or two and send smoke to you from a fire far away. A new fire could start up. Once in the backcountry you often have a hard time figuring out if the smoke is coming from a new fire near you that could cut you off from your planned exit or blowing in from a fire far away. As an asthmatic I try to stay away from situations where the pollution levels could exceed 100 ppm. I'm really happy I went backpacking in May this year, even though I was in the last snowstorm of the season. I had plenty of water to drink and very few mosquitoes! My trip in August 2020 was ruined by smoke from the dry lightning fires, and a few weeks later the area of the Ansel Adams Wilderness I was in was burned by the Creek Fire.