Storm door shutting

[justm]

The two weeks of rain and snow during Thanksgiving were wonderful. That pesky high pressure is building in. This weekend may be all we get for a long time. I hope January and February are better.

[rightstar76]

Justm, that high pressure system may be a symptom of the "blob":

Warmer-than-normal water mass emerges in Gulf of Alaska
https://www.apnews.com/fffdaaf68ab84d278c9e672ed4193e6d

In addition, after the predicted holiday snowstorm this week, the Climate Prediction Center shows a very dry and cold pattern for the first week of January followed by a warm and dry pattern the remainder of the month.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

Not surprising since the climate is getting warmer.

[rightstar76]

Not looking good:

Statewide, the Sierra snowpack is 67 percent of average. The results confirm that despite early winter storms, Sierra water content is below average for this time of year.

https://water.ca.gov/News/News-Releases ... ey-Results

Also, CPC predictions for after mid January show an equal chance for any level of precipitation, but above average temps. Not conducive to snow at mid elevations.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

[TahoeJeff]

The snow level here in Tahoe at lake level is pitiful...

[rightstar76]

CDEC shows 90 % snow water content across Sierra Nevada:

https://cdec.water.ca.gov/snowapp/sweq.action

Starting next weekend, the 19th, will be interesting to see if the current string of storms continues.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

[rightstar76]

It looks like the storm door is about to shut after this week for a long time. That's what Daniel Swain writes:

https://weatherwest.com/archives/6604
Wet and stormy week ahead for all of California; Dipole pattern to follow

This pattern is associated with the simultaneous occurrence of unusually warm, dry, and quiescent weather across California and much of the West Coast and unusually cold, often stormy weather from the Midwest to the Eastern Seaboard. In this case, it does appear that California will rapidly dry out after this week’s storms and will enter a prolonged warm/dry period for the foreseeable future thereafter…so let’s keep our fingers crossed for as much moisture as possible this week.

Yikes!

[DAVELA]

It looks like the storm door is about to shut after this week for a long time. That's what Daniel Swain writes:

https://weatherwest.com/archives/6604
Wet and stormy week ahead for all of California; Dipole pattern to follow

This pattern is associated with the simultaneous occurrence of unusually warm, dry, and quiescent weather across California and much of the West Coast and unusually cold, often stormy weather from the Midwest to the Eastern Seaboard. In this case, it does appear that California will rapidly dry out after this week’s storms and will enter a prolonged warm/dry period for the foreseeable future thereafter…so let’s keep our fingers crossed for as much moisture as possible this week.

Yikes!

Talk about raining on someone's parade...
I see it's supposed to snow 165cm on mt haekle tomorrow night!!

[rightstar76]

This week's storm will be powerful.

http://southtahoenow.com/story/01/15/20 ... lake-tahoe

After which the storm door may close:

The anticipated ridge-trough dipole is supportive of a fairly dry pattern for the CONUS, with the primary storm track in the Norhteast Pacific shifted north into Alaska and Canada, in addition to increased chances for continental polar air masses to intrude into the East. Highest confidence for below-normal precipitation exists over the West

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

[rightstar76]

I was looking at forecast discussions for NWS Reno and Hanford. Seems like the storm door opens Feb 1-4. Only catch is a warm atmospheric river. CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day shows above average chance for warm temps and above average temps for precipitation:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

Also, 3-4 week forecast (Feb 9-22):

anomalous ridging is forecast over the western CONUS...The Week 3-4 temperature outlook indicates increased probabilities of above-normal temperatures for the western half of the CONUS, with the greatest probabilities along the West Coast

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

The snow water content looks good now (over 100 percent):
https://cdec.water.ca.gov/snowapp/sweq.action

The question is, what will it be after next weekend?

[rightstar76]

Thread may need to be renamed storm door opening. CPC predictions have changed substantially. February may be wet and colder than was predicted. We may end up having a wet winter after all.