help a snow noob

[peaksandpotatoes]

I want to snowshoe up some Tahoe peaks this weekend.

For the night that I want to camp, NWS says:
"Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 22. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible."

And for during the day, it says:
"Snow showers. High near 29. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible."

I don't have enough snow experience to be able tell if I'm gonna be sad this weekend or not. I have a good THREE season tent, a four season sleeping pad, and a 15 degree bag. Am I gonna be sorry I walked out there to spend the night or will it be okay?

[cloudlesssky]

You're likely to be cold and sad. Depending on the rating standard used for the bag, many people won't be comfortable in a 15 degree bag at 22 degrees. I've read this is particularly true for women. I'd also caution that your results will vary a bunch. For example the forecast calls for snow so you'll likely be wet/damp as well as cold in subfreezing temps. Not a great combination. I'd suggest a hotel with day trips into the snow.

[seanr]

This weekend/that forecast is not a good time to go out overnight nor even just for dayhikes, especially if inexperienced with snow and snowstorms. Check the broader forecast discussion and winter weather watch. Winds will likely make it dangerous for anyone (regardless of gear and experience) to be atop ridges and peaks (potentially 100 mph +). In addition to possibly getting wet and likely getting very cold, you may have little to no visibility (whiteout/blizzard/ground level clouds), have very strenuous travel, and be dealing with drifts measured in feet rather than inches. Even down lower, your tent may not hold up to heavy snow (potentially feet, not inches) and wind gusts (potentially 50 mph +).

You just missed a good window for relatively easy and safe snowshoe hikes, and may need to wait awhile for another good window. Keep an eye on this when you get a better weather window (if you haven't been already): http://www.sierraavalanchecenter.org/advisory#null

If you aren't thinking about it already, consider learning about avalanche safety and equipment since you seem to be thinking about peakbagging/traveling backcountry slopes in winter.

[Fly Guy Dave]

Given the weather forecast and the gear you listed, my forecast for your trip would be: Cold, miserable with periods of sadness.

[peaksandpotatoes]

Sigh.

okay, yes, that's what I figured. I had this plan in the books for a while... picked up the training, obsessively reading and rereading the relevant topics in Freedom of the Hills, and looking at NWS and Sierra Avalanche Center several times a day all week.

Guess that's why I posted here. Part of me thought I should let some more experienced people talk me down.

[maverick]

I don't have enough snow experience to be able tell if I'm gonna be sad this weekend or not. I have a good THREE season tent, a four season sleeping pad, and a 15 degree bag.

Do not even think about it this weekend, you would have a horrible weekend at best or become a SAR incident at the worst.

[seanr]

I had this plan in the books for a while... picked up the training, obsessively reading and rereading the relevant topics in Freedom of the Hills, and looking at NWS and Sierra Avalanche Center several times a day all week.

You may have better luck in late March or in April. Here is a good weather link if you want more to follow: https://opensnow.com/dailysnow/tahoe

Many know the feeling you are expressing. I know I do, but over time I have become happy to just get out and do what is feasible given conditions. We are so fortunate to have so much variety within short distances here in CA; I always have multiple trip options/activity options in mind and go with conditions that I am in the mood for and that make sense in some way. My spring break could involve Sierra snowplay, desert hiking, coast range hiking/biking, far off Utah adventures, or all of the above.

As far as avalanche safety, I have enough snow experience to know that there is a lot more to know. You may be aware that many of those snow tests you see on http://www.sierraavalanchecenter.org are done on/near peaks that get a lot of ski, board, and some foot/snowshoe travel. They can be good places to relatively safely gain experience without having to break much trail nor be isolated from others (especially on weekends). Of course, that doesn't guarantee safety.

[TahoeJeff]

It's going to be a mess up here this weekend.....

[markskor]

It's going to be a mess up here this weekend.....

Same here. Rain, turning slushy, eventually piles of Sierra cement...yay!
Hopefully more than a foot expected...Should keep the plows busy.

With months of great corn conditions foreseen in the upcoming months ahead - best to stay home for now.

[peaksandpotatoes]

oh man. rain everywhere. I cannot find a good hill I want to climb that will not be covered in mud, heavy storms, strong wind, anywhere within an 8 hour drive of where I am. Cabin fever!! I have had it really bad since New Year's. I know you all know the pain I am feeling right now!