How seriously should I take a red flag warning?

[ketoile]

Q: Is it an ******* move to go ahead with an Emigrant backpacking trip with a red flag warning up for dry thunderstorms above 6,000'?
I don't want to do myself out of a potentially lovely trip by being overcautious, but I also don't want to be the problem.

I'd been watching the radar and in terms of rain/thunderstorms it had been looking doable for a Saturday afternoon start (with the possibility of having to wait out some weather), and we'd be under 9,000' mostly. But with the red flag, and an active fire burning relatively nearby (smaller, largely contained), I could use some perspective.

[wildhiker]

Are you worried about starting a fire, or getting caught in one? I definitely would not make any campfires under "red flag warning" conditions, in order to avoid any risk of starting a wild fire. As for being caught in one, well, Emigrant Wilderness is about 50% solid rock, according to the Forest Service (and casual inspection by any observer), so wild fires ignited by lightning are unlikely to spread rapidly there. If you smell or see smoke, you should have enough time to get out. My bigger concern would be breathing such smoke. For the past few years I have packed an N95 mask in my backpack in case I have to hike out through smoke.
-Phil

[ketoile]

Yeah, not worried about starting a fire—I don't build them where they're not permitted, but I don't love the idea of being up there with the chance lightning sparking a fire; bad air etc. especially since there's already a nearby fire that might increase in size; having difficulty getting out even if I'm not in danger. Thanks for helping think this through.

[paul]

The main risk (or perhaps I should say the greater risk) in these situations seems more about fire and/or smoke at the trailhead or on your way out, since the forest is nearly always more dense there than in the high country. And that risk is always present during the thunderstorm season. What I think about is, if there were lots of smoke in the direction of the trailhead I came from and am headed back to, where would I bail to? Good to have some idea where to go just in case. And the mask, as Phil suggests.

[Wandering Daisy]

I have no answer, but how many times during a red flag warning did a fire actually start in the location you are headed for? I suspect the odds are very small. I recall the probability of lightning for this weekend was in the order of 20-30% if that much. Lightning strikes above timber do not often start any fires. Most fires start in the lower timbered parts of the wilderness. Current nearby fires so far this year have been way down in the foothills. The higher elevation 9000+ timber and vegetation are currently pretty moist. In addition, you can bail out of Emigrant in 1-2 days from any location. Personally, I would not let a red flag warning stop me from a trip.

I like this web-site for information on smoke and current fires.

https://fire.airnow.gov/?lat=37.6616227 ... 27&zoom=10

[ketoile]

Yeah, if it were just the red flag without the thunderstorms, or the usual chance of the odd high-elevation afternoon thunderstorm and rain, I would go and keep my eyes open. But as it turns out it's chance of thunderstorms all three days and both nights, high heat today, and mostly cloudy. Not worth the drive, we rescheduled for another weekend. Thanks, folks!

[Lenier]

For those reading this in the future, I did go out in this red flag event. It was fine. The storms were not severe.