2023 High Snowpack Conditions: Jinxing snow discussion

[fpb56]

Well here we are in March and it’s still dumping. I’m headed into Yosemite mid June. Go in nag to Chain Lakes, Givens Lake and Buena Vista Lake. Using the Chilnualna Falls trailhead. I’m a little concerned. Any thoughts out there?

[SSSdave]

Well here we are in March and it’s still dumping. I’m headed into Yosemite mid June. Go in nag to Chain Lakes, Givens Lake and Buena Vista Lake. Using the Chilnualna Falls trailhead. I’m a little concerned. Any thoughts out there?

[SSSdave]

does anyone here have memories of the high sierra in 1983?

My log with 214 backpacking trips, for 1983 when I began a new job so limited PTO, just 7 total days, shows:

42 3 7-2>4-83 Jm Bear Creek 8300
43 4 9-2>5-83 Jm Second Recess Cr, Lower Mills Creek Lake

So yeah could pull out the old 35mm Kodachromes from storage and look at some slides that is always an amazing way to restore memories. But naw, lazy today. Sulking a bit because was all set to hit the road for some fresh powder skiing, but then at dawn didn't pull trigger.

[JWreno]

I have a permit for August 27th for Cottonwood Lakes then northbound to Bishop Pass. I am thinking about trying again for a Cottonwood Pass on September 3rd. I am worried that late August hiking will be like late July hiking on other years.

I like avoiding the snow on the passes and seeing fewer bugs after things have dried out.

We did the JMT northbound out of Cottonwood pass in late August 2011. We had snow on most passes. Muir pass coming up from the south was a pain because the trail was a wide creek in some places. 2023 seems like it will be a lot snowier late Sumer compared to 2011. When we did JMT in 2008 and 2014 snow wasn't an issue at all.

[LMBSGV]

frozenintime wrote: ↑
Wed Mar 01, 2023 5:52 pm
does anyone here have memories of the high sierra in 1983?

In August 1982, my wife and I went from Tuolumne Meadows to the Clark Range and back to Tuolumne. The third day, we made it to the Merced Peak fork when a downpour caused us to stop. On the next day, we layed over and hiked towards Red Peak Pass. The snow coverage began by the tarn where the trail makes a left-hand turn at the overlook of Red Devil Lake. We lost the trail, but since we were just dayhiking, we spent the rest of the day exploring/playing on the snow up to the ridge by Red Peak where we glissaded back down the snow fields about a quarter mile, a lot of fun. The next day, the wade of the Triple Peak Fork was pretty dicey. The following day, we crossed the torrent of the Lyell Fork on a log suspended over the creek, probably the scariest, riskiest crossing I’ve ever done. Vogelsang Pass still had snow.

In June 1983, my wife was 6 months pregnant, so we only car camped. Tioga Pass and Sonora Pass were still closed so we had to go over Monitor Pass. We camped at Rock Creek Lake where there was still snow in the campground. There was also still lots of snow in Little Lakes Valley, but most of the trail was either clear or easy to walk on. Sonora Pass was open on our way home, but Tioga was still closed.

Like Dave, I have slides, but they need to be scanned, etc.

[commonloon]

I for one would love to see those slides @LMBSGV and @SSSdave! I think I was with my dad in Yosemite in 1983, but will have to ask him if he has any old slides.

Not sure if the '83 comparison is a good one yet, though, as we would need to have more snow storms into May. Not trying to "Jinx" us ;-) We could end up more like summer of 2019 depending on spring temps and storms. Even that is crystal ball thinking.

It might be a good year for the skiers high route :-)

[frozenintime]

@commonloon i'm far from an expert, but given that the southern sierra is ~33% above its 2019 peak and maybe 18% above 2017's peak (with more wet weather in the march forecast), it seems perhaps unlikely that 2019 is a feasible comp? happy to be wrong, though

Screen Shot 2023-03-03 at 12.28.24 PM.png

[c9h13no3]

@commonloon i'm far from an expert, but given that the southern sierra is ~33% above its 2019 peak and maybe 18% above 2017's peak (with more wet weather in the march forecast), it seems perhaps unlikely that 2019 is a feasible comp? happy to be wrong, though

I don't think it's unreasonable to use 2019 as a comp, although it is optimistic. It probably isn't the most likely outcome, but still in the distribution.

At this point we know hiking in June will be something in between 2019 and 1983. Roughly.

[commonloon]

Call me a glass half full guy ;-)

We have 3 months (not counting March, assuming it is snowy 1st half) for something between (A) higher than normal temps and clear skies during the days and (B) cooler than normal temps and yet more snow storms. I don't think we can assume much given the last few years, i.e., assume this year will follow averages for the remaining months before summer or be similar to how 83 was.

[michaelzim]

If this (below) is the forecast for UKIAH in the next 7 days, it makes me wonder what is going to happen when add another 5,000 to 10,000 feet of altitude!!!

Ukiah - 7 days.JPG

My weather predictions with 'Climate Change' (and been telling clients in agric. for decades) "Expect goofiness and extremes - of everything not just heat!" And here we go...

That said, I expect more goofiness yet for this year with odds on some more extremes. Could be incredible warm, wet storms that melt the snowpack and flood everything, to even more cold and 'beyond epic' snowpack. However, this is ALL just speculative guessing. We will know more solidly in another month though indeed the odds are really high for a super late start to the "summer backpacking season"...which is great for CA and water, but likely to drive me to drink. Sigh.

P.S. I did just order some gaiters and micro-spikes which tells something too!

Best ~ Michaelzim