Planning for the Weather

[freestone]

Finally, after weeks and weeks of boring weather, something interesting may happen next week. Heatwave in the PNW and monsoon over California, so if you like to be in the Sierra during a monsoon push, next week will be your chance! TS Enrique could really juice it up as well, its forecast is to ride up the coast rather than west toward Hawaii.

https://mammothweather.com/. https://weatherwest.com/archives/9778

[maverick]

Finally, after weeks and weeks of boring weather, something interesting may happen next week. Heatwave in the PNW and monsoon over California, so if you like to be in the Sierra during a monsoon push, next week will be your chance! TS Enrique could really juice it up as well, its forecast is to ride up the coast rather than west toward Hawaii.

I have been watching the weather models all month, including Enrique's path, waiting for the monsoonal flow to kick in this year. Still, as happy as I am about finally seeing it come and hopefully getting out and photograph in it next week, I am worried about the likelihood of numerous wildfires being started next week.

[aaron_in_sf]

Was planning to start the High Sierra Trail on the 29th and go north… Would someone with a better eye for reading the forecast care to comment on whether that would be a bad idea? I saw probability of up to a quarter inch of rain for example when I’d be around say precipice lake…

…No aversion to moody weather, or getting rained on; and the wind doesn’t look too bad… More wondering whether the chance of thunderstorms makes planning multiple nights at high altitude and crossing passes foolhardy; Especially when once I’m in, I am in…

[bobby49]

You generally don't spend a lot of time hovering at the pass, especially if there is a storm approaching.

A couple of years ago I was on the Whitney summit, and I could look off to the west and see a storm coming that way. So, I kind of announced to the 40-50 people on the summit that there was a storm and that they ought to get the hell off the summit. I immediately started marching downhill, and I got to the last trail junction as the first rain drops were hitting. It was cracking and booming around the summit.

[dave54]

Reference works and primers on weather:
https://www.nwcg.gov/publications/pms425-1 A basic textbook for weather, aimed at firefighters.

https://www.nwcg.gov/publications/pms437 The section on weather has information you may find interesting. The rest is nerdy and aimed at fire behavior predictions

https://www.nwcg.gov/sites/default/file ... pms438.pdf A printable cloud chart

[SSSdave]

Mother Nature may be celebrating The Fourth of July a bit early this summer...

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
241 PM PDT Mon Jun 20 2022

...The biggest change in the long term was to increase the
thunderstorm chances Wednesday through Sunday, as the southwest
monsoon starts up for the season. Ensemble guidance is hinting
at an earlier push of a subtropical plume of mid-level moisture
into the Eastern Sierra Wednesday and further northward across
western Nevada Thursday.

* Strong daytime heating and convergence along terrain will promote
convection initiation each afternoon Wednesday through Sunday.
Wednesday isolated thunderstorms will be possible from Mono-
Mineral, north along the Sierra, and into Lassen County. By
Thursday, a closed low off the southern California coast looks to
move into central California, providing mid-to-upper level cooling
and a boost in MUCAPE. This low will help scattered thunderstorms
to develop across much of far western Nevada, northeast
California, and the Sierra Thursday afternoon and evening. Friday
through Sunday, much of the thunderstorm action looks to be
confined to the Sierra and Sierra Front from Reno southward into
Mono-Mineral counties.

[aaron_in_sf]

Looking pretty monsoony this week. Was going to go to Ansel Adams via Lyell but it’s looking too gnarly for my blood. Thunderstorms in the forecast every day put me in mind of running down the River Trail last year when lightening came in around Thousand Island Lake. Not eager to reprise.

[jtca]

Not sure where the best place to post this is, but how has the heat been at elevation on the east side lately? I'm due to head out to Bear Lakes Basin this weekend out of Piute Pass. Seems like things should cool down a little Friday and I might get a good window where the heat breaks a little, but it seems like it will still be pretty hot (highs around 80 in Aspendell).