Corona Virus

[Lumbergh21]

I am glad that some states are opening up earlier and more robustly while others are being more conservative. It is good test if what we are doing is really making much difference.

But, each state, each county and each neighborhood is different. It is quite easy to 6-foot-distance in my neighborhood and still get outdoors several hours every day. Others, not so. "Going to the beach" is a pretty general statement; could be 10 people spread out on a beach on the Lost Coast, or a mob sitting side-by-side at popular beaches adjacent to urbanization.

I too am frustrated at the "one size fits all" approach. I can legally go to the store every day, or twice a day, but cannot take my totally self-contained trailer once a month to a State Park with sufficiently spread out campsites. I rarely meet more than a handful of backpackers at Henry Coe State Park and I do not stop anywhere on my way there or back. Easy to step off the trial or cross the road if I pass anyone. Yet I cannot go there because it is closed.

There was a statement from some French leader today, saying now that we have flattened the curve, we need to get on with learning how to live with the virus in a less disruptive way, which eventually will include a vaccine.

I think that I understand how you feel. I felt that way myself, though what I am seeing from the people around me is changing my mind. The crowded beaches in So Cal and block parties that I see going on in my own neighborhood have shown me that people can't be trusted to follow the simplest of rules, so what are the chances that they would be able to adhere to more complicated rules that would help reduce the spread of the virus with reduced impact to our everyday lives? I've had a problem with the serious lack of handwashing where I work for as long as I've worked there. Before they sent us all home, it had improved with the focus on proper handwashing to slow the spread of this virus, in the sense that soap was used in a half hearted attempt at hadnwashing, but it was still woefully inadequate. It's like the guy who nearly hits me while I'm riding my bike because he needs to get across that bridge 2 seconds faster. The rest of my life matters less than 2 seconds of his. Taking an extra 10 seconds to wash your hands is just too great of a price for most people to pay. Avoiding large crowds and not sharing food is too great of a price for most people to pay. But, because they don't see the immediate impact, severe illness or even death is nothing to them.

[rayfound]

In the short term, flattening the curve primarily works to prevent overrun of resources, but if we get it right, we can push disease transmission down to a level where we can go back to "containment"

How so? We aren't locking down all of society. and all of society is still interacting at certain choke points (i.e. every "essential" business)

If you ask me, one would think walmart and costco employers should all be sick or dying by now. Strange how they can come in contact with the general public all day yet but going to the beach is going to reverse our gains

I know I have been asked to not argue about the math... but we reduce transmission opportunities by 70% (in aggregate), then the effective reproduction of the virus is halted (assuming R_0=~3).

It is really important to understand this concept... just like vaccines are not 100% effective and herd immunity doesn't require 100% immunity. If transmission rates below 1.0 (meaning those who get disease infect less than one additional person), the exponential factor works to extinguish the virus. Distancing efforts can be thought of like a behavioral vaccine.

Now, that said, (and reflective of your question) smaller aggregates can still have major outbreaks - like we're seeing apparently in the meat-processing industry. Why not retail clerks? Well my UNEDUCATED GUESS? masks, sanitation, distancing efforts in stores have helped mitigate that risk, coupled with them NOT getting exposed via schoolkids, their gyms, their spouse's chain of contacts, etc...

measures can be almost comically ineffective at the individual level, and still be effective at the aggregate/population level.

I'm optimistic that there is a pathway to achieve this.

I'm with you on this, but I don't think our politicians want to put their butts on the line to implement it. Hospitals have had excess capacity in California for a while, but we're still giving tickets to people on the beach.

I'd say there is a difference in transmission risk between crowds of people on a public beach, like we saw in So Cal, and solo or small group hiking in the wilderness. However, earlier this week, we saw a prime example of why they just have to totally shut down outdoor spaces; people can't be counted on to behave sensibly to prevent the spread of the virus. I railed against it initially because it affected me negatively, and I knew a lot of the restrictions were unnecessary. However, several weeks of seeing the behavior of people around me, I understand the "over reaction" now. I still don't like it, but I understand it.

Same. I am not sure how to manage it differently. It is somewhat reflects the above: These rules aren't followed well by all individuals, but in aggregate they work because enough people do take it seriously.

[SSSdave]

Just because there are some people at some outdoor recreational sites that are not adhering to best social distancing orders ought not close such where people are doing so responsibly. During the last 7 weeks, the general population has learned how to do so better, however there will always be a few clueless as well as those resistant to any order limiting their freedoms especially among the young and rebellious or more extreme libertarians. Authorities can expect locations where there is likely to be issues as well as those where there are unlikely to be problems. For someone living in a remote rural area that is not a target of any outdoor enthusiast interests, shutting down outdoor activity because of the pandemic must seem overly broad. Generally the closer to urban population areas, the more likely there may be problems. There are also behavioral differences among the long list of outdoor enthusiasts that one my predict how likely they may behave. At one extreme would be city beach goers, in the middle reservoir fishermen, and at the other end backpackers. If authorities close too much, for too long, for too broadly applied reasons, one can predict increasing numbers will choose to ignore policies.

One needs to understand the original orders needed to be broadly posed to have any chance of being effective and that they will be updated as more can be figured out. It is an ongoing process that is not always going to be smooth while we are all moving ahead and may expect some restrictions may be re-applied if necessary. Much about the virus and treatment was unknown earlier while we are continuing to learn more gradually as research and science around the globe focus on understanding more. As more becomes known so will what is possible so we all need patience.

Our Santa Clara County policy has been a case in point. As part of the 7 SF Bay Area counties, we were the first nationally to issue shelter in place orders that have since been used as templates elsewhere. The county has a list of county parks and open space areas, mainly in our surrounding coastal mountains that have wisely been allowed to remain open, unlike most of the other bay area counties. At first there were some issues and confusion but over weeks authorities have made adjustments and people have on their own figured out how to do this. There had been some that never read the county directive and were instead receiving info from say terse tv reporters that were spouting more restrictive interpretations but they have since been brought in line. People have learned how, when, where, and why to use masks, gloves, sanitizers, move about while maintaining distance, and much else. My very urban neighborhood has fair numbers of people walking streets safely. Likewise as someone visiting our county parks 6 times over 2 weeks that I had to drive to, same situation. Much is common sense.

I had to open cattle gates in parks and do so either with my booted feet or will grab a leaf or stick to get between my hand and whatever needs to be actuated. When someone passes on a narrow trail, I hold my breath a few seconds. Unlike indoors, there is almost always a breeze outdoors that readily dissipate breath. A biker 2 feet from me moving by at 10mph is no issue or is the hiker passing 2 feet down wind after I chose to stand on the up wind edge of the trail. Our authorities are in fact encouraging people to get out and the park folks have been busy putting up lots of signs, especially at parking areas, taping off areas like picnic benches. This is all leading to more contentment of residents less likely to abandon orders as well as helping us stay fit as our respiratory fitness is key. In any case our still open supermarkets and other large retailers are greatly more likely to be sources of contagion, far more than our outdoor parks. Despite such parking lots as Walmart, Target, Cosco, Home Depot, Lowes, and Safeway being full all day long, all week long by throngs of shopping addicts, apparently that has not been a factor in our virus positive stats that have flattened which says much about the virus not being as contagious even indoors for shorter periods and that contagion is more likely with those indoors around others for hours.

Spring is a beautiful green and flowery time in much of lower elevation California and people would be wise to get outside and enjoy such before our usual mid summer heat arrives. There is much more that can be done as advice to the public on how to do so. For example one issue has been that those in rural communities do not want urban outsiders flooding their regions, overwhelming their small grocery, retail stores, and essential businesses. Solution can be that those driving out of their local zones ought be self sufficient with food, gear, and supplies bought in their home local areas. Some complain about the need for gas. First don't go inside their convenience store. Easy, wear a large loose glove to grab the pump. Later toss the glove in a contamination bag. Use Nitrile gloves to work the credit machine and later use hand sanitizer one's used one's credit card. What about using restrooms? Bring a roll of tp in your car. Use hand sanitizer afterward. Or do like bears in the woods.

[caddis]

However, earlier this week, we saw a prime example of why they just have to totally shut down outdoor spaces;

I must have missed something. What did we see that necessitates a total shut down of outdoor spaces?

people can't be counted on to behave sensibly ....

Said every authoritarian

[SSSdave]

Stop continuing to feed troll posts. Trolls provide purposely irritating, annoying, inputs in order to provoke emotionally opposing responses that continues to provide them a public audience soap box to spew on. Debate and discussion is not their goal so beyond token initial responses, continuing to argue only serves their agenda.

[Wandering Daisy]

" a biker 2 feet from me is no issue". Well, having bicycled myself, a number (mainly males) practice snot removal via the good old one finger on the nose and blow (while riding); I have been hit by a glob of their snot when riding behind them (PS, my dear husband is one of those). I definitely step far when passing bikers!

By the way SSSDave, your photos of the flowers you posted are lovely. I agree, that Spring has been beautiful and I think I would be horribly depressed if I did not get out every day. In addition to the wildflowers down by the river, everyone's yards and gardens also are in full bloom right now.

[LMBSGV]

I just received another Point Reyes cancellation:

A location closure has been issued for Point Reyes National Seashore Campground from Mon, May 4, 2020 - Sun, May 31, 2020 due to Public Safety Concerns .

Also, Inyo issued an update that includes the following:

This closure excludes trails and trailheads. However, the Inyo National Forest has cancelled the issuance of Wilderness permits, including Mt. Whitney day and overnight permits, through May 15. Typically, the Wilderness quota system begins for the forest on May 1 and reservations for permits are issued via recreation.gov. Inyo County has advised that people do not engage in high risk activities. Mt. Whitney, especially this time of year, is an area where rescues and recoveries are common. People who have been awarded a permit reservation for Mt. Whitney or any other trailhead on the Inyo National Forest will receive a notice from recreation.gov that notifies them that their reservation has been cancelled and a refund have been issued.

The entire update is here:

https://www.fs.usda.gov/detail/inyo/new ... EPRD730993

[TahoeJeff]

After you:

Stop continuing to feed troll posts.

Make sure you:

When someone passes on a narrow trail, I hold my breath a few seconds.

And don't forget to:

wear a large loose glove to grab the pump. Later toss the glove in a contamination bag. Use Nitrile gloves to work the credit machine and later use hand sanitizer one's used one's credit card

Maybe wear a hermetically sealed bubble wrap suit to protect you from every bad thing out there?

[rlown]

Don't become this because of fear..

[franklin411]

Part of respecting science and expertise is admitting when scientists and experts get it wrong. And they got it ridiculously wrong with coronavirus. In my county, Riverside, the Public Health Department issued orders for an extremely strict lockdown in mid-March. A few weeks later, on March 31, they issued a forecast based on people obeying the lockdown orders. The forecast was:

By April 30: 30,000 confirmed coronavirus cases, and 1000+ dead.

The actual number as of April 30 is: 3,900 confirmed coroanvirus cases, and 143 dead

The fact is that the "experts" got it wrong. Is that a problem? Not necessarily. They had to make their best guess with the available information. But the next bit...Scientists are supposed to adjust their thesis as new facts are known. And they won't admit that they got it wrong. Instead, they've doubled down on the strategy that entirely failed to affect the outcome.

https://rivcoph.org/Portals/0/Documents ... 5699277827