Corona Virus

[c9h13no3]

After the dry February that stunted early rising plants, especially all the alien grasses, the rains these last couple weeks has caused a significant rise of late season annuals.

Yeah, I'll second this (although I'd use less fanciful language). The Bay Area bloom in grassy areas has been the best I've seen it in a long time.

[franklin411]

The preliminary results are in for the Stanford study. Coronavirus has likely been spreading for months, and the number of actual infections is between 50 and 80 times higher than the reported number. So the number of confirmed cases in the county was 1200. The actual number was probably 50,000 - 80,000.

The number of deaths in the county stands at 69. That's a death rate of 0.14%. Approximately in line with the common flu.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20062463v1

[rightstar76]

Another interesting article:

Though Kerala was the first State with a recorded case of coronavirus and once led the country in active cases, it now ranks 10th of all States and the total number of active cases (in a State that has done the most aggressive testing in India) has been declining for over a week and is now below the number of recovered cases. Given Kerala’s population density, deep connections to the global economy and the high international mobility of its citizens, it was primed to be a hotspot. Yet not only has the State flattened the curve...

From the moment of the first reported case in Kerala, Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan convened a State response team that coordinated 18 different functional teams, held daily press conferences and communicated constantly with the public. Kerala’s social compact demanded no less. Not only did Mr. Vijayan directly appeal to Malayalees’ sense of citizenship by declaring that the response was less an enforcement issue than about people’s participation, but also pointedly reminded the public that the virus does not discriminate, destigmatising the pandemic.

Second, the government was able to leverage a broad and dense health-care system that despite the recent growth of private health services, has maintained a robust public presence. Private provisioning of a public good has never made much sense, but as anyone watching the chaos in the United States has learned, there is nothing like a pandemic to expose the obvious coordination problems that for-profit health systems face.

https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/a ... 370554.ece

[oldranger]

Somebody on a local forum argued because we have a relatively low rate of confirmed cases (about 70 with 1 death) that the economy in central oregon should be opened up. This was a neat response,

"Say you jump out of a plane and begin to free fall. You decide to implement mitigation to your rapid decent and open your parachute. That slows you down considerably thereby saving your life and potentially those under you on the ground by not slamming into them at 200 mph.

Society is currently slowing things down with the parachute open and social distancing is working. What you’re suggesting is, “Hey...since it’s not that bad, let’s get rid of just parts of the thing that’s slowing us down.” So you want to cut away a few parachute cords because that clearly won’t affect the mitigation system as a whole, right?

So let’s say we listen to you a get rid of a few because what’s the worst that could happen?

We end up back into a free fall...that’s what."

[rlown]

The guy with the parachute probably is on Social Security or a pension and gets a check, has reasonable medicare coverage so the landing will be easy as not really impacted by the shutdown.

Healthy and "not at risk" workers need to get back to work, before they lose everything. Protect everyone else. Open up the testing and then on a case by case, based on underlying conditions, govt should make choices to ok the "back to work" card.

Just the unemployment coverage requests hurt enough. Even that guy in the parachute will get hit by increased taxation to cover that.

[Wandering Daisy]

"Get the healthy working" is a but pie-in-the sky, because with nearly half of Americans have underlying conditions (I think like 43% obesity) regardless of age. And it is those low income people who need the work (money) and who are less likely to be able to work remotely, who probably are over-represented with underlying conditions. Furthermore, you need demand in order to have a business. Who is going to go to a crowded restaurant if half of us are still locked-in because of underlying conditions. And what of "herd immunity?" Generous estimates say only 5-10 percent of us have it. And testing? Do you realize how cumbersome it is to test 39 million people? It will not be fast. And there will be a bump in cases, which I understand California's medical system is better positioned now to handle. However, even if you get a "mild case" it will likely put you down for 2-3 weeks, and during that time you will not be able to work, as well as spread it to your family.

I am all for slowly starting things up, but I doubt it will solve many of our economic problems. It will however be interesting to see how it goes. Just do not expect miracles. It will be very messy and painful.

[rlown]

I pass by at least two drive thru testing facilities here in the Elk Grove area. Not seeing the problem other than test availability.

If you're down for 2-3 weeks because it is still a flu, ok. But to shut down the economy is really dumb.

I'd like to see restaurants open again. Patrons take the risk. Think about the supply chain behind a restaurant.. No food purchased to provide for patrons. It'll get nasty and our current administration will just tax everyone to make up for the "pandemic recession."

82%ish will survive. Go with it. Mother earth has been doing this for eons.

[Wandering Daisy]

"82ish percent will live". Well, not that great if you are a doctor, medical worker, or family member, or the dead person. I think there are better ways to reduce the world population. And for those who do end up hospitalized, it is more like 4-5 weeks recovery, if not more, and some indication of permanent damage. But I do agree that there is something in between total panic and total ignoring COVID-19. And we really do not know what that will look like or if it will even work, or make things worse. But we should not be so risk-adverse as to not even try.

[oldranger]

The guy with the parachute probably is on Social Security or a pension and gets a check, has reasonable medicare coverage so the landing will be easy as not really impacted by the shutdown.

Or maybe people working in hospitals or first responders! the longer this continues means people with other issues are less likely to get treated! So open up and have a resurgence and just keep the hospitals busy with the corona virus!

[rlown]

Evidently, first responders and hospital workers still get paid.

Most doctors have shut down "non-essential" visits. Guess where you might find the triage needed.
If you want to be an ER doctor or a first responder, you've already signed up. Go with it or what was the point? Become a specialist and avoid the angst.

Just open the economy again. It'll get worse in a different way if we don't.