Is anyone besides me looking forward to snow this coming week?

[scottmiller]

I'll be going over Kearsage Pass on Tuesday, missing the first snow on Monday but heading into snow on Wednesday. After my first snow encounter about 20 years ago I said "It was great but I wouldn't do it on purpose." And now here I am all packed and ready. I'm bringing all my warm gear. Might even bring a book. It's supposed to clear up by Friday, though. Wheeeeeee!!!!

[SSSdave]

Your plan given older forecasts may have looked probably safely viable a few days ago but as is often the case, forecasts evolve and change and now in the high country appears to be a quite dangerous gamble.
---------------------

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/TextProduct ... =sfozfphnx

CAZ323-162300-
Yosemite NP outside of the valley-
Including the cities of Tuolumne Meadows and Wawona
101 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...Cooler. Chance of snow showers in the morning. Chance of
rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms through the day.
Snow showers likely in the afternoon. Snow accumulation up to
11 inches. Total snow accumulation up to 12 inches. Snow level
7700 feet. Highs 35 to 49. Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph with gusts
to around 30 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.
.TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers, snow showers
and slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then slight
chance of rain and snow after midnight. Lows 22 to 36. West winds
up to 10 mph with gusts to around 25 mph. Chance of precipitation
50 percent.
.TUESDAY...Not as cool. Mostly sunny. Highs 44 to 58. West winds
up to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain and snow after
midnight. Lows 28 to 42. West winds up to 5 mph shifting to the
south after midnight. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...Snow likely and chance of rain in the morning, then
rain showers and snow showers in the afternoon. Light snow
accumulations. Snow level above 8000 feet. Highs 39 to 53.
Southwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Rain showers and snow showers in the evening,
then snow showers likely and chance of rain showers after
midnight. Moderate snow accumulations. Lows 27 to 41. Chance of
precipitation 90 percent.
.THURSDAY...Rain and snow likely in the morning, then rain
showers likely and chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Moderate snow accumulations. Highs 38 to 54. Chance of
precipitation 70 percent.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with chance of rain showers and
snow showers in the evening, then mostly clear after midnight.
Lows 26 to 42. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.
.FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Highs 49 to 63. Lows
31 to 47.
.SATURDAY...Warmer, sunny. Highs 54 to 68.
.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 34 to 50. Highs
56 to 70.

[Gogd]

Most experienced snow trekkers avoid intentionally venturing into the very circumstances you are going to confront. In fact most experienced with hiking in the shoulder season will stay on the trailhead side of high passes, to minimize the hazards of a potential retreat.

• Snow/rain conditions are prime for hypothermia opportunities. But if your insist, keep your down fill gear back home and go with synthetic layers.
• Intentionally hiking up into the first season's snow is ill advised. There will be no underlying base snowpack, making it very likely your boots will plunge through the snow layer, finding the uneven, underlying terrain, making travel extremely tedious, not to mention presenting a significant risk for ankle and leg injuries due to unstable footing and hidden obstacles.

Ed

[giantbrookie]

I agree with the previous replies to the subject post, in spite of the fact that I posted on intentionally hiking into mild snowstorm on Aug. 24. As will be seen from in that post, the forecast and my planned destination were very different. First of all, the severity of the storm, including the predicted amount of snowfall, was significantly less than what is forecast this week (ie the Wednesday storm). Second, my destination was one where we could easily bail out to lower and safer elevations if the storm was in fact more severe than anticipated. An issue with being W of Kearsarge is that the "escape" is going back over the pass. One can drop to lower elevations going away from where your car is parked (ie toward Road's End) but it may be a long way to relatively low elevations heading west, depending on where you're at. You should bear in mind we lost one of our dearest members in a fall snow storm when the escape route was in fact going back east over a high pass (Taboose in that case). I am in fact a bit worried about one of our members who is up there now (went in before the forecast started looking this dicey) and I recall there was another one who was planning on taking kids up this week, if I recall (gulp).

[Wandering Daisy]

I purposely came out a day early on a trip to Emigrant. Yesterday I walked 14 miles just to get low enough to avoid snow, and then walked out in 3 hours today. The storm is coming a bit later than the forecast (In-Reach) that I based my decision to bail out. I also gave up my permit to do a loop from Rush Creek to Marie, Lost and Alger Lakes to instead do a loop at lower elevations in Emigrant. It was not just the snow- but even at lower elevations of 8-10,000 feet, it was forecast to be very cold daytimes- 35-degree highs, wind-chills or 25, high winds. Yesterday I walked in three layers of clothing, including my outerwear jacket with hood up. Had it been snowing I would have been very miserable. As it was, I just got blown around a bit and decided that Brown Bear Pass would be better than blown off Big Sam.

The big thing is that in summer conditions you can make a mistake or two and get by. In cold, wind, snow, a small mistake can lead to serious consequences. Going out solo in winter conditions can be deadly. You have no back up.

[scottmiller]

We're going to go as far as Matlock Lake on Tuesday and see what happens Wednesday. We might hunker down there until Friday morning. The forecast seems reliable, with a ridge coming in to clear things up.

[Wandering Daisy]

Wise decision. Matlock Lake is beautiful. There are fine campsites with trees between the upper and lower lake. Take photos of the dusting of snow on the peaks! Once the storm is over Kearsarge Lake is also a great place. I would be a bit hesitant to go over Glenn Pass. I looked at the forecast this morning and this next storm is to be warmer than the one on Monday- still not exactly conditions I personally prefer. Be safe and have fun.

[thegib]

We hiked out over Post Peak pass yesterday and the sky was a gorgeous collection of clouds and blue with an icy wind. The chance and amount of precip looked too complex to accurately forecast, but the reward was a very clear sky with pristine blues.

[Captain Slappy]

I have tentative plans to go over Kearsarge Pass on Thursday. My hope is to get to the trailhead early in the morning and be over the pass before the worst of the precip in the afternoon. That said, if the weather is already hairy when I arrive at the trailhead or on the way to the pass, my plan is to go to Matlock for a night as well or even go back to town for the night and come back the next day. Friday onward looks to be beautiful and clear thankfully.

[narc1370]

Agreed... I gave up Budd Lake to Echo Pass, over to Nelson Lake/Tuolumne Pass. I just did not want to git slammed with snow and cold temperatures going xc. I have one more trip planned for early October. Fingers crossed.... I'm not ready to shut the door on the sierra's yet.