High Sierra Topix

It's more a description of the lack of a snowpack. The Eastern Sierra Avalanche Center is providing reports and forecasts again, and I thought the excerpt below gives a good account of where we are now. Things really looked good there in October, but now we have a very similar situation as we had at the start of last winter. Oh well.

From 12/2/21 ESAC:

Surface conditions vary widely from pockets of sugary facets to breakable crusts to thick bullet-proof wind board, sometimes all within a matter of a few feet... Use good judgement if seeking steeper exposed terrain and don’t forget your boot and/or ski crampons and an ice-ax or whippet to avoid a slide-for-life.

One thing consistently found across the region in our snowpack is layers of crusts and developing sugary weak facets. While these don’t present a stability concern currently, WHEN we do get a significant dump of new snow, these now-buried weak layers could lead to some large avalanches. The delightful early season snowfall that put smiles on many faces in October could come back to haunt us.

Although winter is expected to show up a bit this week, if 4 inches in high elevation can be considered 'winter', until now it's been shockingly abnormal to me. I appreciate the warning that that minimal ice left could pose a risk further into winter. I do not backcountry ski, but it wasn't great last year, right?

Though north-facing slopes held onto October's storm, usually under 4 feet and some post-holing going on as it remains so dry and cold, south-facing have been completely, shockingly clear and I've been out hiking in the Eastern Sierra like it's still September, despite some roads closed for no good reason other than they are usually closed this time of year.

It has been absolutely frigid overnight, maybe worse as there isn't any ambient temps from snow cover, but for about 8 of the 10 hours of sun it gets borderline hot: start hike in parka, midday in single layer with need for sunscreen, parka back on at camp. Ice forms in creeks on rocks and sticks, but otherwise main waterways are running, if very low, and lakes remain low and their drainages dry. There has been no wind to speak of and the skies have been bluebird clear, which is exceedingly strange to me, and I have seen autumn colors linger on trees between 3k and 5k feet. I am not sure how many years this will keep up, but it's... alarmingly different. I've walked through a few burn areas and was sad to see not much new pine tree or even chaparral growth, instead it's more desertification: 7k areas looking like 4k areas with low-lying brush taking over. Otherwise, the low temps are still causing normal animal behavior: coyotes crossing 395, elk along 395, some minimal deer activity in mid elevations, still bear and cat scat in those areas, too, but higher up only bunny prints in the snow. *shrug*

terraelise wrote: ↑Mon Dec 06, 2021 8:54 amI do not backcountry ski, but it wasn't great last year, right?

Winter was surprisingly good. The snow we did get was quite cold, and I had quite a few good powder days. Spring was flippin' terrible though, as the mountains went straight from winter to summer in what seemed like a few weeks.

This doesn't strike me as all that abnormal. The last time I skied this early in the year was in Canada. It's still fall. Everyone's always super excited for the snow to arrive, but it starts slowly, barely covering up rocks & stumps. Then what does fall rots & facets in the dark Novermber/December conditions.

Tahoe resorts would be happy for good *snow-making* conditions at this point.

Harlen wrote:

It's more a description of the lack of a snowpack. The Eastern Sierra Avalanche Center is providing reports and forecasts again, and I thought the excerpt below gives a good account of where we are now. Things really looked good there in October, but now we have a very similar situation as we had at the start of last winter. Oh well.

That is going to change next week, we should receive several feet of snow, if not more.


NWS:

Stronger Storm Potential Next Week:

All eyes are on next week as clustered ensemble analysis show agreement in developing a longwave trough off the west coast with impacts as early as Sunday. This presents a pattern which could yield multiple waves of subtropical moisture pushing inland over a 2-3 day period early next week. As a result, there are viable scenarios for significant amounts of snowfall across the Sierra in addition to prolonged travel disruptions.

Confidence is increasing in the formation of this eastern Pacific trough which will yield a wetter, cooler, and possibly a windier pattern. The main uncertainties are of the typical variety, that being the timing and depth of the trough. The evolution of this system could feature multiple waves of
subtropical or AR moisture which would yield a longer duration precipitation event. That coupled with lower initial snow levels could yield promise for the Sierra picking up accumulations measured in feet vs inches. Snowfall pick ups will also be possible into western Nevada but much lower confidence at this time. Be sure to keep a close eye on the forecast if you have any travel plans by the end of the weekend into the middle of next week.

maverick wrote: ↑Tue Dec 07, 2021 10:35 am That is going to change next week, we should receive several feet of snow, if not more.

Thanks for the jinx...