If you've been searching for the best source of information and stimulating discussion related to Spring/Summer/Fall backpacking, hiking and camping in the Sierra Nevada...look no further!
We are planning a week-long trip in northern Yosemite in mid-July (In from Green Lakes, over Mule and Burro pass, out at Twin Lakes) and we—especially my spouse—are quite nervous about the possibility of having the trip ruined by fire; even moderate smoke would be an issue for her. Such a trip is a big deal for us, because we live in Vermont and so have to fly out, find some place to stay for a while to acclimate to altitude, and so on. Newspaper reports on the likelihood of major, early fires are quite dire.
What are people who live closer to the Sierra thinking about the probability of major fires in mid July? Is it really so likely that we'll be smoked out that we should consider simply waiting for another year (this would be her preference, but she's not in love with Sierra, as I am )?
There are already fires burning. We had two start yesterday in Tahoe, where I live. There will definitely be fires this year, as there are every year. It's impossible to predict where and when. It is dry, so it is likely this year is worse than most, but every year there are fires. Plan your trip, and make a backup plan. Once you're out in California with a rental car, there's nothing saying you have to hike in Yosemite. You can always drive to the coast, or out to the desert, depending on what is happening.
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Maia hit it spot-on. Fires are now a year-round reality in California. We just had three fires (thankfully all small and quickly contained) outside of Crowley Lake yesterday. I live in the Owens Valley, and for 95% of September and October last year, we had an AQI of 200+ thanks to the Creek Fire and fires in the Bay Area. This year is even drier, which does not bode well.
That said, I realize that it's not helpful to you to do nothing but bemoan the oncoming smoke-pocalypse. My guess for this year (which, it should be emphasized is nothing but a guess) is that July will probably be ok for smoke and fires. August will be iffy. September and October will be awful. My goal is to get in all of my big backpacking trips before mid-July. After that, I'll just dayhike if smoke and fires will allow.
I'd be concerned too. Another reality of living during the knee of an ape creature overpopulated planet.
Smoke across the Sierra can be the result of either fires within the range or blowing in from elsewhere in the state, especially the heavily populated coastal regions. Within the range, lightning fires occur mostly between July and October with June still too moist to be a strong factor for large fires. And most Sierra wildfires are in higher timberline and above elevations that are small because trees are spotty with vast rock landscapes. Most coastal region fires are man-made and there tends to be more further into our dry season that begins in late April and ends in fall sometimes early and sometimes late. In any case very infrequently we get lightning storms along our coastal regions that cause epic fires as happened in 2020.
The increase in late summer and fall fires is in part the result of massive population and infrastructure increases in fire prone coastal and Sierra foothill regions. Many urban people don't vacation outdoors until August. The state given massive numbers of recent decades emigrants and immigrants has vast numbers of relatively fire ignorant for our Mediterranean environment urban peoples, many of which expect to make fires whenever and wherever they camp regardless of regulations. IMO if late September is a 10, then early Sept=9, late Aug=8, early Aug=6, late July=4, early July=3, late June=2, and else is a 1. Our main High Sierra backpacking this year is 3 weeks earlier and set for mid to late July.
I head out from Albany about 2 weeks ahead of you, I go just about every summer. As Maia suggests, have a plan B. For instance, my flights can be rebooked. Sure they cost more but I can change plan and hike in the the Colorado Rockies as a last minute change. My plan A this year is to hike the entire JMT. Plan B is a section along the CDT. Plan C is cancel, hold a few airline credits and come October hike along the Long Trail when the color peaks.
The key is to have alternatives. And if you are "stuck" out west maybe the PCT leg of Mt Hood to the Columbia River. Whatever, have a backup plan. Me, if I have to go with a backup, this year I'll lost the cost of a weeks foods and shipping it for resupply. BUT I'll still get 2 weeks in the backcountry somewhere.
I agree with all of the above. There are places within a short day's drive of Yosemite (Lassen? Jennie Lakes?) that might offer a very different air quality equation once you get out here.
That said, we even picked a trip one year because the smoke from a fire was headed in the other direction. of course, the next day the wind changed...sigh
I wouldn't worry too much about it. Last year we hiked into Evolution Valley from Florence lake. When we took the ferry across to start our hike, the driver told us he had never been able to not see the other side of the lake. The CZU fire in Santa Cruz, 150 miles away was blowing smoke eastward.
As we started towards MTR the mountain tops opened up and we had three great days of clear skies. When we got off the trail, and started to drive back to our hometown of Santa Cruz, the smoke again was awful.
When the Creek Fire ripped through Shaver/Sierra Nat'l Forest, we had a backpacking trip cancelled because we were heading out of Edison Lake. We shifted plans, and pulled a permit to hike out of Glacier Point in Yosemite. The winds cooperated and we had two beautiful days.
The sierra's are large enough that if you have a plan B, C, etc, you should be fine.
Typically great responses from this board; thanks so much, everyone! (...and terrific blog, Maia!) Not sure whether this will be enough to smooth the waters, but I'll certainly pass it on to the reluctant spouse!
stevet wrote: ↑Thu Jun 10, 2021 7:01 pm
...Plan C is cancel, hold a few airline credits and come October hike along the Long Trail when the color peaks...
Anybody hiking the Long Ttrail (runs the length of Vermont) from this board, please feel to drop me a PM! We'd love to help with transportation (especially in the northern third), advice, and perhaps even put people up for a night or two. We section-hiked the LT mostly last year (already had a couple of sections in the bank from previous years), and for me, at least, it was a very mixed experience. My knees are getting old along with the rest of me, and some of the extremely steep, rocky descents were really tough on my body overall. I fell hard once resulting in rotator-cuff surgery (with typically long recovery). There are some beautiful sections, but overall the LT is one of those things I'm glad I did but am not interested in doing again. That said, we did just repeat a short segment last weekend specifically to see the pink lady's slippers in bloom...had a great time!
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