Thunderstorms booming
Posted: Sun Jul 19, 2020 2:56 pm
After a dry end of June through July , current forecast for the central High Sierra is now more stormy than forecast previous days. There have been storms the last 2 days and it could get worse across a broader area. I have a permit for Convict Creek but if the these storms continue and raise stream levels, no one may be able to cross the creek at 8990 where the bridge was washed out long ago requiring a ford. Last few hours the storms on radar seem to be sitting in one place growing larger that is always the worst scenario if one is underneath it all for hours. The Convict Canyon below Mildred is obviously one of the worst places to be in such a situation or during earthquakes as the towering canyon has immense amount of steep Paleozoic Era talus and rocks that can readily become debris flows. Will be wise to avoid dangerous lightning exposed areas.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
310 AM PDT Sun Jul 19 2020
Tuesday, a weak upper low approaches the CA coast with some modest
cooling aloft possible. This could bring a bit more instability
with afternoon heating along with forcing for longer-lived, stronger
thunderstorms starting in eastern California and pushing out into
the western Great Basin by Tuesday evening. There is also a threat
for more widespread coverage of lightning given the potential for
more organized storms. While storms definitely have the potential
to produce heavy rainfall, the increase in lightning coverage will
bring concern for fire starts (fanned by outflow winds) on the
periphery of thunderstorms. -Snyder
.LONG TERM...Wednesday into next weekend...
Most of the medium range guidance stalls the weak incoming trough
over California for mid week and then the trough weakens and
retrogrades to near the CA coast by the weekend. This is a change
from previous model runs with a lot less southwest wind aloft and
thus lesser flow to push moisture out of the area. Thus the risk
of thunderstorms may stay with us through the period. NBM point
probabilities for storms continue to indicate this and thus we
have expanded daily chances for thunderstorms for the eastern
Sierra north to the Sierra Front. Storms may have to be expanded
further if this trend persists in future model data.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
310 AM PDT Sun Jul 19 2020
Tuesday, a weak upper low approaches the CA coast with some modest
cooling aloft possible. This could bring a bit more instability
with afternoon heating along with forcing for longer-lived, stronger
thunderstorms starting in eastern California and pushing out into
the western Great Basin by Tuesday evening. There is also a threat
for more widespread coverage of lightning given the potential for
more organized storms. While storms definitely have the potential
to produce heavy rainfall, the increase in lightning coverage will
bring concern for fire starts (fanned by outflow winds) on the
periphery of thunderstorms. -Snyder
.LONG TERM...Wednesday into next weekend...
Most of the medium range guidance stalls the weak incoming trough
over California for mid week and then the trough weakens and
retrogrades to near the CA coast by the weekend. This is a change
from previous model runs with a lot less southwest wind aloft and
thus lesser flow to push moisture out of the area. Thus the risk
of thunderstorms may stay with us through the period. NBM point
probabilities for storms continue to indicate this and thus we
have expanded daily chances for thunderstorms for the eastern
Sierra north to the Sierra Front. Storms may have to be expanded
further if this trend persists in future model data.
