High Sierra Topix

rlown wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:18 am ...
If you're gonna die, you're gonna die.

I cannot avoid the Grim Reaper forever, but I sure as hell not going to make it easy for him to find me. And I intend to kick and hit and fight back hard when he does come.

My goal in life is to outlive my pension and become a burden to the taxpayers. I will put up with a couple months inconvenience if it helps achieve my goal.

I have two goals in life. One is to outlive my physician, and the other is to go through life without ever dealing with a lawyer.

SSSdave wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:16 am Accordingly, that tends to indicate the virus is not as contagious as was thought more possible and rather that contagiousness is more the result of indoor situations where people are together for longer periods.

Or that the virus is as contagious as thought, but it's just not as severe as expected for almost everyone. In a small fraction of the population, which in a world of 3.4 billion people is a lot of people, it's very severe. But we're not going to see another 1918, which was the prediction just a few weeks ago.

Well, The virus sure makes a vet visit more interesting. Took 24 hrs to get a vet for Simba. Lobby was locked. Vet meets you on the walkway and takes your dog in. All payments and vet reviews happen through a window. Yes, I had a mask but it isn't required so wasn't worn.

Seems the Covid hasn't stopped horse artificial insemination day. Dr. Hunter was busy. No mask.

Simba has his meds so all is well.

SSSdave wrote: ↑Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:16 am

Accordingly, that tends to indicate the virus is not as contagious as was thought more possible and rather that contagiousness is more the result of indoor situations where people are together for longer periods. ......... Generally recommendations for being safe outdoors should have included advice for breeze airflow instead of the dumbed down lowest common denominator 6 foot distancing that only makes sense indoors.

1. I mean, it isn't "THAT" contagious. A naive R_O of ~2.5-3.5(median estimates I have seen) is roughly... a fairly contagious but not rampantly so*** (measles is like R_0=20, chickenpox=10+). It's method of spread (Respiratory Droplets) is also much easier contained than a "true" airborne virus that transmits effectively in tiny aerosols. We don't need perfect controls to halt the growth. tradeshows, churches(at least in SK), offices, HOMES, institutional facilities, etc... seem to be the most effective transmission vectors. There's probably a good case to be made for transportation infrastructure too (Subways, airports, etc...) One interesting note is that once one person in a family gets it, it is near impossible to not have everyone in the household get it.

2. Breeze could help droplets stay aloft as well (There's a study in SK where basically those in the path of airflow of HVAC got sick, those on other side didn't). Again, I strongly think there's a good rationale for allowing outdoors recreation, with norms and social pressures to keep distance between household groups, and maintain physical distance. I think campgrounds and trailheads should be open with sanitation protocols in place.



*** Again, what is neat is that if we take an estimated R_0 of 3.0, and as a society we stop 50% of interactions, we're down to 1.5. If we add mask wearing that's ONLY 35% effective(population level), R_E drops below 1.0% and we get a virus that is doomed to burn out. We, collectively, just need to work on finding that balance of activity and mitigation efforts that allows for R_E to be pushed below 1.0, while protecting as many of the most vulnerable as possible.


I'm optimistic that there is a pathway to achieve this.

rayfound wrote: ↑Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:01 pm I'm optimistic that there is a pathway to achieve this.

I'm with you on this, but I don't think our politicians want to put their butts on the line to implement it. Hospitals have had excess capacity in California for a while, but we're still giving tickets to people on the beach.

c9h13no3 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 24, 2020 3:11 pm

rayfound wrote: ↑Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:01 pm I'm optimistic that there is a pathway to achieve this.

I'm with you on this, but I don't think our politicians want to put their butts on the line to implement it. Hospitals have had excess capacity in California for a while, but we're still giving tickets to people on the beach.

I agree, I do think there is a lot of err on the side of caution right now, as starting a exponential growth pattern again from a starting point with many initial cases could get out of hand really quickly. The delayed onset of this disease, coupled with effective asymptomatic transmission makes monitoring renewed growth really tricky since cases will lag behavior by one to two weeks at a minimum.


Whether it is not wanting to risk their political asses, or it is more a matter of not wanting to be the one that miscalculates by a week and ends up costing hundreds/thousands of lives... Well I Don't profess to know what's in the heart of someone... But I'm not sure there is much of a functional difference, regardless of the motivation.

(Personal philosophical ethics note: I really firmly do not care about people's motivations, I care about their actions and behaviors and how those impact others... If I see someone helping their fellow human, I really don't care if they are doing it because they want to help the person, or they are doing it because they want me to see them helping the person... )

I am curious. How many of you think, that after the dust settles, our society will make significant and actual changes in behavior? I read a lot of articles that state this that state that this will be an opportunity to re-think how we live and impact the earth and the cons as well as pros of globalization. Perhaps it is my pessimistic side, but I think people are creatures of habit and will go right back to idiotic shopping as recreation, over-consumerism, polluting the air, destroying the planet, if that was their habit before, and those who are live more sustainably, will continue. I think we have an economic and political system that is based on growth and consumption at any cost and far too many see nothing wrong with that.

By the way, as in introvert, I would be incredibly happy if hand shaking and hugging of strangers totally stopped. Being on a cruise ship with 3000 other people causes sheer social panic! And eating out sitting right next to complete strangers in a noisy setting is another activity I would rather not do anyway. Very uncharitably, I will admit; I get a chuckle out of the "pain" extroverts now feel, after years of them judging me as abnormal.

Personally, no change in behavior. Also an introvert. When I do go out to shop or dine (or hike), I'm strategic about it. I will shake hands but not big on the hugging thing. It is fun to go out and "people watch" to see how their behaviors have changed.

Count me in as a "non-hugger" and introvert.
Hell, I've been practicing social distancing my whole life.
And as WD basically said, I could never handle being on a cruise ship with 3000 of my new "best friends".