High Sierra Topix

I guess to my real point " I really want data from NYC." What would that data do for you?

rlown wrote: ↑Tue Apr 21, 2020 3:56 pm I guess to my real point " I really want data from NYC." What would that data do for you?

Give us a much clearer idea of the fatality rate of the disease, and how close that community is to reaching herd immunity.

Here's the deal. Every town/city/state will be different. If your neighbor had it you probably already have it.
Stats won't save you and this acts just like the flu unless you have very big underlying medical issues. Stating everyone dying from the current virus is wrong. It just adds to what one has already done to their body.

If you're typing now, you're probably not going to die.

rlown wrote: ↑Tue Apr 21, 2020 4:08 pm Here's the deal. Every town/city/state will be different. If your neighbor had it you probably already have it.
Stats won't save you and this acts just like the flu unless you have very big underlying medical issues. Stating everyone dying from the current virus is wrong. It just adds to what one has already done to their body.

If you're typing now, you're probably not going to die.

I don't fully disagree with you, but we're talking about a lot of death. If the CA studies overestimated with their data, we are faced with the possibility of 1+ Million US deaths. That is pretty much equal to the amount of people we've lost in every war combined. That's a lot of people. I'd hope that we take the decision very seriously.

Death happens. Not usually when you want it, but it does..

rlown wrote: ↑Tue Apr 21, 2020 4:08 pm Here's the deal. Every town/city/state will be different. If your neighbor had it you probably already have it.
Stats won't save you and this acts just like the flu unless you have very big underlying medical issues. Stating everyone dying from the current virus is wrong. It just adds to what one has already done to their body.

If you're typing now, you're probably not going to die.

Not sure that your assumption on underlying conditions is entirely correct. True, viral particles seldom kill the host, that doesn’t make evolutionary sense. It’s the body’s reaction that kills, having an underlying condition isn’t always the death nell.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/arc ... se/610228/

just saying that like the flu, 19 will hurt/kill you if you already have underlying conditions.
My opinion, the second you lie down in a hospital bed, you are already in trouble. Except for Markskor.. Glad they kicked him out of the hospital.

Unfortunately, we are a nation with a LOT of underlying conditions. Just read a piece today about the role inflammation plays in poor outcomes with COVID-19. It said only 15% are without at least one underlying condition (I think they were referring to adults, but not sure); hypertension, diabetes, pre-diabetes, metabolic disorders, attributed to our poor diet of over-refined junk food. About 40% of adults are obese, including health care workers who are at the front lines of exposure. I find myself a rarity- not on any prescription medicines. Luckily we on this forum are by default (because we backpack) healthier than the average American. So, it is not about us, but about the number of people who would likely have bad outcomes if we were to simply go on as usual. I think most urban locations would end up just like New York City is now. And yes, those impacted are a small percentage of the total population, but it still is overwhelming the medical system. Also some less than stellar news on accuracies of a lot of antigen tests.

Whether you agree or not with the stay home orders, after having shut things down as much as we already have, it seems that it would be the worst of both worlds if we opened up too early and the virus exponentially infected us. We are a bit better off now with the medical system better prepared but still woefully inadequate for a real surge. Dribble a few cases in steadily and we are probably OK. And buying time, better treatment methods may be developed as well as a vaccine. I think the local governors are very aware of what is happening in their particular state, and I do think they know better what will work in their own states than the Federal Government. I do hope at least parts of the country can start to get back to normal soon.

The difference between COVID-19 and the flu is that we know a lot about flu and their different strains because they have been around for a long time. There are so many more unknowns with the coronavirus. Not enough cases yet for hard data on which to make decisions.

Evidently we don't know alot about the flu either. Hit or miss on the vaccine.

Lol! Well surprise, surprise, surprise, as Gomer Pyle used to say. The Director of the CDC is saying that a second wave is likely in the winter, and it'll be worse because it'll coincide with flu season. Soooo....that means that "flattening the curve" actually meant "penny-wise, pound foolish." It would have been better to have a big wave up front, at the END of flu season, rather than a little wave up front and a big wave later, at the BEGINNING of flu season.

https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/CDC ... 216433.php