High Sierra Topix

A media overblown virus. I'll leave it at that.

rlown wrote: ↑Sun Apr 12, 2020 9:27 pm A media overblown virus

Amen Brother

rlown wrote: ↑Sun Apr 12, 2020 9:27 pm A media overblown virus. I'll leave it at that.

How did the American media cause all these lock downs when they were all first done in China?

Aww, c'mon man, you know the US media didn't actually cause the lock downs, but they sure have overblown the situation.

c9h13no3 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 09, 2020 10:23 am
Average flu season deaths, last 3 years: ~44,500

Projected Covid-19 deaths: ~60,000, given current level of physical distancing

c9h13no3 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 09, 2020 12:35 pm trade off is something like wrecking the economy

TahoeJeff wrote: ↑Mon Apr 13, 2020 9:19 am Aww, c'mon man, you know the US media didn't actually cause the lock downs, but they sure have overblown the situation.

So it's not wrecking the economy or the lock down that upsets you, it's the degree of panic in the general public?

To those of you poo posing the significance of the corona virus--why are hospitals where social distancing was implemented after the virus was significantly spread overwhelmed? Why are hospital staff and first responders fearful? Seems to me if social distancing had not been implemented that things would be much worse and original estimates of deaths would be met or exceeded. My problem with some of the regulations is that they seem to prevent some reasonable ways of maintaining social distancing and that the initial broad brush approach could be a little more surgically designed. Yet I understand the point of the broad brush approach. In oregon state and federal agencies have closed down all developed recreation sites. That means that boat ramps, trailheads, and campgrounds are closed. It makes sense in that as I have researched the situation in media and in person I have viewed people even in boats fishing with people not in their household, or when salmon fishing tying up with other boats in a hogline (consequently oregon closed much of the spring salmon season. When dispersed camping I have viewed circled RVs with central campfire and people sitting way to close to each other. Seems to me that many campgrounds in my area could be opened with the restriction that parties must be of the same family unit, some campgrounds would need to have some sites closed due to too close proximity to other sites. Boating and access to boat ramps limited to family units. With personnel stationed to enforce social distance and to check ids. Rather than having marine patrols with 2 or 3 officers on board to check on boaters the officers could be dispersed over a wider range. Many FS people are limited with lots of vehicles stationary in their parking lots. These folks could be dispersed to serve as reminders to folks in the field to maintain social distance ( and doing the same as they interact at a safe distance). Just seems to me that there are reasonable ways to provide outlets to people and stop the spread of corona virus at the same time.

Well, now's as good of a time as any for a rant i guess.

The "overblown Virus" is a nonsensical response that hinges on a few critical, fundamental misunderstandings:

1. "The virus is not that deadly afterall" There is NO EVIDENCE for this (technically, it may yet turn out to be true, but again, there is no evidence to suggest this is true, only wishful thinking). Proponents attempt to compare to the Flu with ~0.1% Fatality rates. Now, there is under counting because of testings shortages which almost certainly means actual fatality rate is lower than the over 4% fatality rate we've observed to date in the US. South Korea is heralded as the best case thus far at testing and controlling spread, early on when their case-finding began to indicate the virus spread was minimized, their CFR was about 0.6%... still far worse than the flu, but far more optimistic than the 1.0-3.5% we'd seen elsewhere. Since then however, while case finding continues to show dramatically slowed virus spread, the already-sick have continued to succumb to the illness... and their fatality rate has pushed upwards to over 2%. It is the same story in US... our case-finding/testing has improved over the last month, but our fatality rate has continued to increase.

2. "We're doing all this shutting down, social distancing, virus mitigation efforts (at great cost) and it turns out the virus is now only predicted to kill 60,000 americans, not the 200,000+ we were originally threatened with" .... There's not so much to say here other than the predictions were ALWAYS made with the assumptions of underlying behavior. If we did nothing, 2M+ americans could die (70% infection rate, 1% fatality rate)... if we did some measures, we could maybe improve that to 200,000.... if we do broad, severe measures(and keep them in place)... it is beginning to look like you can get down to ~60,000. But the idea that it isn't as bad as predicted is tantamount to saying "We cut all these fire breaks in the forest, cleared out a lot of underbrush, created defensible space around structures... and it was all a waste because the fires weren't that bad afterall." or "We evacuated almost everyone before the hurricane came but it turned out to have not killed very many people" THE WHOLE POINT OF THE BEHAVIOR-CHANGE is that it WORKS. We don't shut everything down with the hopes of having the same outcome. its a choose-your-own adventure.

3. "The harm to the economy is as bad/worse than virus". I'm not going to engage in the underlying morality here, but just accepting it still hinges on a pretty wild idea that had we NOT taken the distancing measures, the virus would somehow have run its course and not caused dramatic economic fallout. There is no path from where we were by the beginning of march that didn't result in massive economic hardship. There probably was a window in Feb for distancing measures nationwide and an extreme pressure on testing/contact tracing, a couple weeks of halts to travel/etc... then resumption with masks and such in place. We missed that window. Had we not undertaken the measures we did, the deathtoll by summer could have very easily been over a million, and there simply isn't a world where that happens in the USA, with a completely overwhelmed healthcare system, and does not cause a dramatic economic crisis. So we had a choice by mid March: Massive deathtoll and dramatic economic challenges, or Unthinkable deathtoll and dramatic economic challenges. The only opportunity for "moderate/palatable deathtoll and moderate economic disruption" was maybe the end of February.


Like many others, though probably more than most, I started actively following this in the last week of February. as I started reading more and more epidemiologists... one thing kept being repeated as they called for distancing/mitigation efforts: "If we do this right, everyone will feel like we overreacted" That is beginning to feel especially prescient in the last few days while we see the early beginnings of the effects of mitigation efforts slow the growth.

oldranger wrote: ↑Mon Apr 13, 2020 10:32 am My problem with some of the regulations is that they seem to prevent some reasonable ways of maintaining social distancing and that the initial broad brush approach could be a little more surgically designed.... Just seems to me that there are reasonable ways to provide outlets to people and stop the spread of corona virus at the same time.

So, I am pretty/sympathetic open to this line of thinking, and have been myself frustrated by the shutdown eliminating opportunities to take my family camping, but my understanding of the situation is as such:

1. Early on: the enemy of the good is the perfect. Need to put a tight clamp on things early, don't get side tracked trying to figure out what pieces around the edge still fit. You just simply can't make any guesses without the data (that you don't have).
2. WAIT IT OUT - The way I see it, it wasn't until maybe 3-5 days ago that we BEGIN to see some results of mitigation efforts reflected in data.
3. The relaxing of measures will begin in the coming weeks, depending on locations, and they will undoubtedly be more surgically designed - Outdoors activities (with masks) probably first along with letting kids play at parks with friends, etc... going to be a long road back to major sporting events and tradeshows.

c9h13no3 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 13, 2020 9:44 am upsets you

Not really upset. Just disappointed.
I'm still at work being a productive member of society. Went to the East Carson with the fam yesterday and was pleasantly surprised to find only 2 other cars in the lot, and saw no one on the trail.
It's very easy for the well off, the retired and those who can work from home advocate for the lock down.
But think of those in different circumstances.
According to U.S. News, 16 million filed for unemployment in 3 weeks. That is a lot of people out of work, and their jobs may never come back. Those are people, more than likely on the bottom end of the financial scale who will be hit hard.
Absolutely, if you have a comprised immune system or have underlying heath conditions, wear your mask and/or self-quarantine. But how about letting the vast majority of us Americans who will not get sick let the country keep running?

TahoeJeff wrote: ↑Mon Apr 13, 2020 11:02 amBut how about letting the vast majority of us Americans who will not get sick let the country keep running?

So it *is* the economic shutdown that bothers/disappoints you. Can we decide to stop using the tired old "media made this crisis" crap that's been floating around? The media make a big deal out of this thing because our elected officials & public health workers are making a big deal out of this thing.

I agree with oldranger, the broad brush closures are pretty dumb. The open space preserves here are doing an admirable job of staying open. They've closed some parking lots, limited single track trails to one way traffic, and generally been creative about finding ways to keep things going.

And I'm also tired of hearing about how hiking/skiing/whatever puts SAR personnel at risk of contracting the virus. SAR personnel are at risk of a lot of more severe consequences when they go out on a rescue, such as falling & dying. The additional risk added from COVID19 is hilariously negligable.