High Sierra Topix

Wandering Daisy wrote: ↑Thu Apr 09, 2020 12:16 pm Another related subject. Would backpacking permits that are unused because trailheads remain closed, be re-issued for a later date? And if later dates are already full, how could that be fairly done? If things do open up this summer, it looks to me that it will be a very difficult year to get first-come permits. What about the PCT permits?

Highly unlikely as this would require them drastically changing the current permitting system or just scrapping it entirely for the year and just saying to the horde, go out there and try not to destroy every plant and animal in the wilderness.
More likely is a complete shut down of entry onto public lands. I've seen comments that this would be impossible. How so? The state and federal park service employees are still being paid. How hard would it be for them to patrol trailheads and issue tickets or even charge the owners of vehicles parked at said trail heads with a crime for violating an order of the state health officer (this is a misdemeanor punishable by a fine of up to $5000 for each violation, if I remember correctly from when I worked for the Dept of Public Health)? This would also require additional action by the state health officer or governor or other departments of the state and/or county government, but once you get beyond that whole inalieanable rights BS, it's pretty easy.
Now, I'm sure many of you are seing me as some sort of right wing crack pot. I would disagree, but that's your right. In my defense, I don't think closing of borders, social isolation, etc. are bad ideas or unawful. However, I'm seeing what I consider to be a serious level of panic because this is a highly contagious virus with no vaccine or proven treatment at this time. It seems that people are grasping at anything any action that the government says is necessary to save lives no matter how illogical it might be (Department of Fish and Wildlife is moving towards closing the commercial and recreational fishing for the year, why - Corona virus! Huh?). However, this panic has set in and as long as the press keeps flaming it with lies and half truths to generate viewership you can bet people will continue to grasp at anything to control something that is not controllable. This is not the flu, this is worse, at least for now. By most estimates, it is 3 to 4 times as contagious. Even with under-reporting due to a lack of testing, it is likely more deadly. And, once again there is no vaccine or treatment. We need to be safe, but we need to be sensible. For me, that means minimizing contact with other people in general, hand washing more than ever before (I'm no longer that weirdo who returns from the bathroom with a paper towel to open the doors between there and my office or maybe I still am), and limiting contact with older people especially, as I don't know if I am infected, infected in the past but clear now, or never infected. However, I do not see how riding a bike, hiking, or fishing which are all solitary pursuits for me, are a risk, and I am losing patience with people who tell me any additional risk is unacceptable, especially given the risks they have accepted every day for as long as they have been alive and continue to accept without even thinking about it.
My apologies for the long rant. It's been building for a while as I see a summer being wasted and an economy destroyed, which by the way, could mean 10's of thousands of additional deaths per year for year's to come and reduced life spans in general due to the affects a large economic depression would have on nutrition, medical care, and health in general. But those are acceptable I guess.

franklin411 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 09, 2020 1:54 pm

schmalz wrote: ↑Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:57 am We do know that California had its first confirmed case before New York did.

Yep...Wikipedia actually has it broken down by state. The first confirmed case in the US was a person who had returned from Wuhan, China on January 15. The first confirmed case in California was January 26. The first confirmed case in New York was March 1.

And one huge, important point needs to be made: Basically, testing was still basically a laboratory experiment in January 2020. Clinical testing kits didn't exist before then, and practically no-one in the US was testing people who came down with "flu like symptoms" before March.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coro ... California
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coro ... rk_(state)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coro ... ted_States

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_testing

To address the thought that the increase in flu related deaths may be due to the similar symptoms of the novel corona virus. I doubt it, as there is a quick antibody test for the various strains of flu, and I don't believe a death would be reported as caused by the flu or that the flu was a contributing factor unless the person actually tested positive for the flu. It might be reported as viral pneumonia, but not specifically influenza. I could be wrong about how encompassing the CDC is in what they count as a flu-related death, though.

It can spread fast:

https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/c ... o/2253006/

And in rural areas, if someone visiting spreads it locally, it can severely overload that area's medical infrastructure:

Why Mammoth Lakes Is Turning Away Visitors
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/06/us/c ... ounty.html

Lumberg: I don't think that we should blame the media for the drastic policies that are currently in place concerning isolation. Those policies are being studied and recommended by the CDC and NIH experts. Those people don't get their information about coronavirus from the National Enquirer or the New York times. They are working with the best possible data they have (sketchy though that may be) and making recommendations based on their expertise and experience. Not because of the media.

I DO think we should place the blame on those who refuse to take these closures and recommendations seriously. They are the ones who look for ways around guidelines or policies/regulations. They are the ones who are forcing authorities to close trails and parks to limit person-to-person contact--because they are the ones who won't follow the policies. And the rest of us are paying the regulatory price.

This is the way that society works. All of our laws, from speed limits to murder, exist because some people can't be trusted to do what is best for the community. And we all live with those limitations because of those who want to draw outside the lines in areas that we, as a community, feel are inappropriate. Or dangerous. And in this case, the people making that decision are being guided by the medical and virology experts...not by public opinion.

Most doctors are just pill-bots. Remember: pharmaceuticals save lives, followed by surgeons. But your average general practitioner just shotguns pills at people, and they call that "medical science!"

Anyway, it turns out that medical science is no different this time around. Remember those ventilators? The ones that are desperately needed to save us from coronavirus? Well...turns out they kill people with coronavirus. 80% of NYC coronavirus patients on ventilators die, and the theory is that ventilators operate under too high of a pressure. Your lungs are already struggling due to the infection, and then they cram your lungs so full of high pressure air that it actually suffocates you.

The best therapy? Have patients lie on their belly, which allows fluids to settle in other places and makes breathing easier. In severe cases, administer supplimental oxygen.

It all goes back to Ben Franklin's famous saying: "God heals, and the doctor takes the fees."

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory ... s-70048940

As to a guess about when public lands will open, I think there will be several times, depending on if it is FS, NPS or BLM or State lands. These agencies have never had the same policies, and I do not see that changing. May even be different dates for different localities.

It may be the year to try out backpacking outside of the Sierra. In my pursuit of bagging the 57 county high points (I am about 10 short right now) I have gone to obscure areas I never would have thought of myself. I a bit of an "explorer" and have done trips to obscure areas in Nevada. Here area few areas to consider:

1) White Mountains from the Nevada side; good May-June.
2) Warner Wilderness in the far NE corner of California.
3) North Coast Range- lots of non-wilderness areas with little regulation. Also Trinity Wilderness and Marble Mountains.
4) Ruby Mountains in Nevada
5) Big Basin Nevada may be a NP that is less restrictive

I am planning on going to the Wind Rivers in Wyoming, and entering via the less popular trailheads. I know where to go that I can avoid people for several weeks (basically self-quarantine for 14 days). With a bit of logistical planning I can totally avoid stopping in towns, only have to buy gas here and there.

Franklin411- you are again turning theory into fact. The jury is still out whether the ventilators were the final blow, or that those put on ventilators were ready to die anyway. The fact that many people die in spite of ventilators (not necessarily because of them) is actually good, in that it would free up more ventilators for those that it actually helps.

On a whole there are very good doctors out there. Blanket criticism of doctors and "western medicine" in general is a cop out. We have a broken medical SYSTEM and doctors are just as frustrated as you are. Your blame is addressed at the wrong people.

Wandering Daisy wrote: ↑Fri Apr 10, 2020 8:19 am Franklin411- you are again turning theory into fact. The jury is still out whether the ventilators were the final blow, or that those put on ventilators were ready to die anyway.

Correlation versus causation. An example from history that I saw in a biographical video last night was a thesis by Carolanaeus Linaeus (sp?). In the 18th century he wrote that malaria was caused by clay particles based on the fact that there were higher concentrations of malaria cases in places with high clay content in the soil (correlation). While they didn't put 2 and 2 together in the video as it was about the man not malaria, what happens when rain falls in areas with a heavy clay soil? More standing water since the rain doesn't soak in as well, which leads to more mosquitoes and the greater spread of malaria. Causation versus correlation. Another way of looking at the high death rate while on a ventilator is that these people are so far gone by the time they put them on a ventilator that they have little hope of surviving. I've been watching a YouTube channel gor med students called Medcram which has switched to Covid videos exclusively. The doctor who hosts the channel has had a few videos on treatment for people who are sick before they get to the point of being put on a ventilator because the prognosis is so bad by that point. He has pointed out some practices going back a hundred years as well as current medicines that might work and why this stuff might work, but always stating that we don't know if it will help with Covid-19, yet. All I seem to see when I venture out into mainstream media - and, I'll admit it is the headlines that grab me - are crackpot theories, false reporting, playing the blame game, and sensationalism in general.

More common sense and logic from Lumbergh21. I'm going to add you to the list of voices of sanity and reason.
Of course the mainstream media, of all political persuasions, is fanning the flames of hysteria. "If it bleeds it leads"
And franklin411 nailed it again: BigPharma loves to have a pilled up nation. Why don't the doctors buck the SYSTEM, and quit prescibing so many meds?

Doctors prescribed a ton of pain drugs for my mom during cancer treatment. As she didn't use them, I now have them as carry alongs for my first aid kit this season.