High Sierra Topix

balzaccom wrote: ↑Thu Apr 09, 2020 7:07 am The biggest single challenge to ALL the theories is the fact that COVID19 can be contagious from people who show no symptoms, and thus haven't been tested. that skews ALL the statistical analysis, and consequently, the theories.

Not all. When it comes to spread, hospitalizations & deaths are a pretty good proxy for positive tests. They're just a lagging indicator. But yeah, no one knows how many people actually have the virus.

Fun/morbid data for the US:
Average flu season deaths, last 3 years: ~44,500
Average car crash deaths per year: ~38,000
Average heart attack deaths per year: ~647,000
Current Covid-19 death toll: ~12,700
Projected Covid-19 deaths: ~60,000, given current level of physical distancing

I've sorta given up arguing ITT, since it's become more of an idiot test than a discussion.

I would like to formerly add c9h13no3 to the aforementioned list of voices of sanity and reason.

I would like to emphasize that the projected deaths of 60,000 IS BASED ON continued social distance (with its economic impact), the very things that those you call "sane", object to. The right question is not if current social distance measures are overkill (pun not intended), rather WHEN can we start returning to "normal"? And how to do it.

Another related subject. Would backpacking permits that are unused because trailheads remain closed, be re-issued for a later date? And if later dates are already full, how could that be fairly done? If things do open up this summer, it looks to me that it will be a very difficult year to get first-come permits. What about the PCT permits?

Recall also that a bad flu year is 90,000. We apparently have done well with social distancing based on the revised models. What isn't clear is how we're going to avoid a 2nd wave AND return _close_ to normal. We need to look for ways to protect the elderly and those w/ compromised health from a potential 2nd wave, restart the economy and have some sense of normalcy... and dare I say open up the wilderness!

Wandering Daisy wrote: ↑Thu Apr 09, 2020 12:16 pm I would like to emphasize that the projected deaths of 60,000 IS BASED ON continued social distance

While not taking offense to the fact that this is *literally* what I said, it does highlight that no one really knows what the death toll would be without some or all of those measures. Originally the CDC was projecting something like ~200,000 deaths. That number is highly unlikely to be accurate, but even so, the trade off is something like wrecking the economy to save ~140,000 people. Whether this is a rational choice or not, no leader would ever get re-elected if they could've saved that many people from demise and didn't.

Airlines are mostly just cancelling flights, so I assume the same will be done with wilderness permits. And I highly doubt they'll increase the quota this summer, even if the wilderness went "unused" all spring.

I've sorta given up arguing ITT, since it's become more of an idiot test than a discussion.

Uncalled for, if you don't care to address someones post, ignore it instead please.

Wandering Daisy wrote: ↑Thu Apr 09, 2020 12:16 pm ... Would backpacking permits that are unused because trailheads remain closed, be re-issued for a later date? And if later dates are already full, how could that be fairly done? ...

During the 2018 fire season, I had a permit reserved for Mono Pass. At the Visitor’s Center, I asked the desk ranger to re-write my permit (letting her choose) for a less-smoky destination. She wrote me one for North Fork Big Pine Creek; a permit in pretty high demand even under “normal” conditions. On my hike, it seemed like (even accounting for day hikers) the numbers of people on trail far exceeded the trailhead quota. I suspect (without any proof) that the Forest District Supervisor can (quietly) increase the quotas under unusual circumstances.
Whether this would be good or bad is arguable, but maybe they can do something similar this year.

schmalz wrote: ↑Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:57 am We do know that California had its first confirmed case before New York did.

Yep...Wikipedia actually has it broken down by state. The first confirmed case in the US was a person who had returned from Wuhan, China on January 15. The first confirmed case in California was January 26. The first confirmed case in New York was March 1.

And one huge, important point needs to be made: Basically, testing was still basically a laboratory experiment in January 2020. Clinical testing kits didn't exist before then, and practically no-one in the US was testing people who came down with "flu like symptoms" before March.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coro ... California
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coro ... rk_(state)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coro ... ted_States

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_testing

Sometimes the actual number of casualties is less than the number reported by public officials:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/05/us/c ... count.html

The Guardian has some interesting articles about the coronavirus:

Origin of Virus:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... mal-market

Mass Burials:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... art-island

ER Doctor Casualty:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... -gabrin-er

schmalz wrote: ↑Tue Apr 07, 2020 8:49 am America is not setup for a long term shutdown. We have, by design, no safety nets or government given health insurance for the masses. Asking the working class to sit things out indefinitely when they were already living paycheck to paycheck, is insane.

On a lighter note, does anyone want to take a guess on when the Sierra will open up this year? I have a Whitney permit for mid june, was hoping to do a Memorial Day trip etc...

My guess is not this year, almost certainly not before August, if you mean when will our fearless leader allow us onto public lands.