Re: 2018 Fire and Smoke Impact Reports
Posted: Fri Aug 03, 2018 1:37 pm
There's a wind storm predicted over the weekend from an offshore low. It will kick up smallish local waves and create (slightly) lower coastal temperatures in SoCal. Further inland, it's referred to as a red flag warning due to the increased NW winds.
That's the good news. The bad(der?) news is that as the low exits east, it will set up a fall like 'Santa Ana' wind event. Along with accompanying high temperatures, these combination of factors could create the 'perfect storm' for increased fire activity.
https://forecasts.surfer.com/#place=33. ... one_Sat_-1
High pressure wanes through Saturday before reestablishing itself in a big way Sunday through the middle of next week. Low pressure dropping south from the Gulf, although large and significant, is expected to be met with super strong high pressure that would extend from near the equator north into Canada. The center of the high that would affect SoCal the most would be positioned over New Mexico and West Texas, extending out past the SoCal coast. This would not only bring hot air to SoCal, but the high's position would also likely draw in tropical moisture, and do something else that's rather rare: bring an offshore event to SoCal, like a summertime Santa Ana. Between the strong Gulf low and the incredibly hot heatwave high pressure, strong gradients should form (see diagram here). This would be enough to bring notable offshore winds (for this time of year) that would further warm air in SoCal from compressional heating.
It's a perfect kind of heatwave scenario: hot air from the high, moisture from the tropics, and compressional-heated air from the offshore effect. Inland areas are gonna cook next week with some slight precip chances popping up here and there (mostly over the mountains) from the tropical moisture. For the beaches though we should see a thermal inversion, which would keep some marine layer at the coast in the AM.
So long story short, here's how weather's looking right now:
Today beaches should see a timely burn-off with max temps in the high 70s. AM marine should thicken a bit Friday and Saturday for a mid to late AM burn-off and max beach temps in the mid to upper 70s. Sunday should then see an offshore effect in the AM to help with an early AM burn-off and max beach temps in the high 70s. Monday should then warm to near 80° at the beaches. Tuesday is the peak of the heat when offshore winds may be in the 10+ mph range in the AM with minimal marine layer and beaches in the high 70s to low 80s.
That's the good news. The bad(der?) news is that as the low exits east, it will set up a fall like 'Santa Ana' wind event. Along with accompanying high temperatures, these combination of factors could create the 'perfect storm' for increased fire activity.
https://forecasts.surfer.com/#place=33. ... one_Sat_-1
High pressure wanes through Saturday before reestablishing itself in a big way Sunday through the middle of next week. Low pressure dropping south from the Gulf, although large and significant, is expected to be met with super strong high pressure that would extend from near the equator north into Canada. The center of the high that would affect SoCal the most would be positioned over New Mexico and West Texas, extending out past the SoCal coast. This would not only bring hot air to SoCal, but the high's position would also likely draw in tropical moisture, and do something else that's rather rare: bring an offshore event to SoCal, like a summertime Santa Ana. Between the strong Gulf low and the incredibly hot heatwave high pressure, strong gradients should form (see diagram here). This would be enough to bring notable offshore winds (for this time of year) that would further warm air in SoCal from compressional heating.
It's a perfect kind of heatwave scenario: hot air from the high, moisture from the tropics, and compressional-heated air from the offshore effect. Inland areas are gonna cook next week with some slight precip chances popping up here and there (mostly over the mountains) from the tropical moisture. For the beaches though we should see a thermal inversion, which would keep some marine layer at the coast in the AM.
So long story short, here's how weather's looking right now:
Today beaches should see a timely burn-off with max temps in the high 70s. AM marine should thicken a bit Friday and Saturday for a mid to late AM burn-off and max beach temps in the mid to upper 70s. Sunday should then see an offshore effect in the AM to help with an early AM burn-off and max beach temps in the high 70s. Monday should then warm to near 80° at the beaches. Tuesday is the peak of the heat when offshore winds may be in the 10+ mph range in the AM with minimal marine layer and beaches in the high 70s to low 80s.