2018 Fire and Smoke Impact Reports

[Hobbes]

There's a wind storm predicted over the weekend from an offshore low. It will kick up smallish local waves and create (slightly) lower coastal temperatures in SoCal. Further inland, it's referred to as a red flag warning due to the increased NW winds.

That's the good news. The bad(der?) news is that as the low exits east, it will set up a fall like 'Santa Ana' wind event. Along with accompanying high temperatures, these combination of factors could create the 'perfect storm' for increased fire activity.

https://forecasts.surfer.com/#place=33. ... one_Sat_-1

High pressure wanes through Saturday before reestablishing itself in a big way Sunday through the middle of next week. Low pressure dropping south from the Gulf, although large and significant, is expected to be met with super strong high pressure that would extend from near the equator north into Canada. The center of the high that would affect SoCal the most would be positioned over New Mexico and West Texas, extending out past the SoCal coast. This would not only bring hot air to SoCal, but the high's position would also likely draw in tropical moisture, and do something else that's rather rare: bring an offshore event to SoCal, like a summertime Santa Ana. Between the strong Gulf low and the incredibly hot heatwave high pressure, strong gradients should form (see diagram here). This would be enough to bring notable offshore winds (for this time of year) that would further warm air in SoCal from compressional heating.

It's a perfect kind of heatwave scenario: hot air from the high, moisture from the tropics, and compressional-heated air from the offshore effect. Inland areas are gonna cook next week with some slight precip chances popping up here and there (mostly over the mountains) from the tropical moisture. For the beaches though we should see a thermal inversion, which would keep some marine layer at the coast in the AM.

So long story short, here's how weather's looking right now:

Today beaches should see a timely burn-off with max temps in the high 70s. AM marine should thicken a bit Friday and Saturday for a mid to late AM burn-off and max beach temps in the mid to upper 70s. Sunday should then see an offshore effect in the AM to help with an early AM burn-off and max beach temps in the high 70s. Monday should then warm to near 80° at the beaches. Tuesday is the peak of the heat when offshore winds may be in the 10+ mph range in the AM with minimal marine layer and beaches in the high 70s to low 80s.

[limpingcrab]

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White Bark Vista this morning looking towards Florence and then towards Edison/Lyell. Looks like some tasty air. Thankfully the winds were calm so we got to look for birds in the clear air

[Harlen]

Hey limpingcrab, I know that some climbers monkey with their photos orientation to make their climbs look steeper, but what you've done here is too obvious. Did you climb that knob?

[maverick]

SNF:

[maverick]

SNF:

Mandatory Evacuations are been issued for Clarks Fork Road. (including Wagner Housing tract; Liahona; Peaceful Pines; and FS Campgrounds)
The fire is estimated at 700 acres and is 1 1/2 miles from Clarks Fork Road.

[limpingcrab]

Hey limpingcrab, I know that some climbers monkey with their photos orientation to make their climbs look steeper, but what you've done here is too obvious. Did you climb that knob?

Ha! No I tried in the winter but that thing is awkward. Besides, I was busy following around a calliope hummingbird and nerding out on this trip.

[edhyatt]

Very grateful for these as I will kick-off SOBO from SLT in a week...

...here's hoping

[rightstar76]

Ed, sounds like you are doing the Tahoe Yosemite Trail. If so, are you going to do the Summit City Creek section to Bear Valley? Also, if attempting the JMT instead or in addition to the TYT, did you get the coveted Donohue Pass exit permit?

[balzaccom]

The Donnell Fire is now burning between Donnell Reservoir and Clark Fork. Mandatory evacuations of Clark Fork, Dardanelles and Kennedy Meadows...and closed the road between Pinecrest and Sonora Pass.

[maverick]

Mymotherlode:

Update at 7:55pm: The Donnell Fire in the Stanislaus National Forest has grown to 1,500 acres, according Forest Service spokesperson Diana Fredlund.

Some large air tankers have been spotted near the fire this evening, including a DC-10. All of the earlier evacuation advisories and orders remain in place.

Also, an American Red Cross shelter is open this evening at the 7th Day Adventist Church in Sonora. Small pets are acceptable.

Update at 4:10pm: Caltrans reports that an eight mile stretch of Highway 108 is closed due to the Donnell Fire. The closure begins 13 miles east of Strawberry. You will need to find an alternate route. The CHP indicates the closure is due the fire jumping the Stanislaus River and moving toward that stretch of Highway 108. The latest size estimate is 1,000 acres and there is no containment. The earlier evacuation orders and advisories remain in place.

Update at 3:05pm: The Tuolumne County Sheriff’s Office has modified its earlier evacuation order. The area between Clark’s Fork campgrounds and the Dardanelles is now under a mandatory evacuation order. The area from Dardanelles to Kennedy Meadows is under an advisory evacuation notice. The Donnell Fire is 1,000 acres and there is no containment.

Update at 2:20pm: The Tuolumne County Sheriff’s Office reports the area between Clark’s Fork campground and Kennedy Meadows, including the resort, is under a mandatory evacuation order. The latest size estimate of the Donnell Fire is 1,000 acres and there is no containment.

Original Story at 7:30am: Tuolumne County, CA — Forest Fire officials report problems in getting the aircraft in the skies and their overall strategy to combat the 600 acre Donnell Fire’s flames.

Forest Service spokesperson Diana Fredlund details, “During morning hours the fire is under an inversion and actively burning in timber and brush, with movement driven primarily by terrain. Once the inversion lifts around noon, the canyon winds increase to 25 mph and that causes the fire to drastically increase its rate of speed.” She explains, “That means Aircraft are restricted in the morning due to smoky conditions and the inversion, but also restricted later in the day due to high winds.”

Fire officials relay that the main strategy is to keep the fire north of the Middle Fork of the Stanislaus River, south of trail 19E06 and east of Dome Rock.

Evacuations were ordered for the areas of Wagner Tract and the Clark Fork area, as reported here yesterday.

Current resources on scene include 165 personnel, 3 hand crews, 6 engines, 2 helicopters, and two water tenders.