giantbrookie wrote:
This front approaching (Wed through at least Tues next week) will be a doozy if the NOAA forecast holds and whereas so far we've had more snow in the north, this one is forecast to dump a ton on the higher Sierra. If the forecast, holds, this may significantly add to our snowpack throughout the range.
Following the segue into snowpack discussion (with apologies to the OP newossab):
Yes, it will add to our snowpack, as John says, but more important to the folks that are keen on winter travels-- the weight of it may finally stabilize it. This year's snowpack has suffered from persistent weak layers, which carry the curse of a potential "step down" situation, leading to larger avalanches.
Here is an explanation of that from ESAC:
... Keep in mind that even a relatively small wind slab avalanche breaking in the upper snowpack may be enough to step down to persistent weak layers near the ground, creating a larger avalanche involving the full depth of the snowpack.
To return to newossab's original question about early planning for summer trips, I heard, or read somewhere an educated guess that this snow season might follow the pattern of one of our recent big snow years-- the 2018-19 winter-- in which most of the snow came in March. I'm sorry that I can't pin down that discussion, and so I don't know if there was any credible science behind it. Anybody else hear, or read that prediction?
Good luck on your summer trips newossab, Ian.
p.s. Note what was said above (by C9, I think), that you might hedge your bets by choosing an early trip with a route that avoids both hard creek/river crossings, and steep passes. One off the top of my head would be North Lake TH over easy Piute Pass, to land you in the wide open paradise of Humpreys Basin. Even if the snow persists-- look how beautiful it might be:
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This was June of 2017, and newossab, there was alway open water around, supportive snow, and dry sandy ground for camping.
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Snowy summer landscapes can be wonderful! .... just don't fall in.