Snow Pack Planning 2024

[Wandering Daisy]

I would hesitate to rely on historical data more than 20 years old since the climate is changing. I like the last 20 years of the Tioga Pass opening report on the Yosemite web site because I do a lot in that area. Lingering snowpack has never been a big issue with me- I just slog through and plan shorter days. What may be different is that this year's snow will be on top of the remaining snow of last year's high snowpack. May be wise to plan on snow on the passes until late this summer.

[TahoeJeff]

Pack is a little sparse in my neck of the woods:

Snowpack still well below average - Monthly measurement at Phillips Station 58% of average
http://southtahoenow.com/story/01/30/20 ... 58-average

[texan]

Thank for the update. The Phillips station measurement is the usually the standard we go by for how much snow pack is in the Northern Sierras. At least it went up from 28% to 58% by the end of January. Hopefully, we get a bunch of snow in Feb and March. I always look at Mammoth Mtn too and they have had about 100 inches of snow this year. Not very much, we should twice that much right now and we only have two months to go until the April 1st measurements. Thanks again for sharing the valuable info.

Texan

[giantbrookie]

This front approaching (Wed through at least Tues next week) will be a doozy if the NOAA forecast holds and whereas so far we've had more snow in the north, this one is forecast to dump a ton on the higher Sierra. If the forecast, holds, this may significantly add to our snowpack throughout the range.

[texan]

This front approaching (Wed through at least Tues next week) will be a doozy if the NOAA forecast holds and whereas so far we've had more snow in the north, this one is forecast to dump a ton on the higher Sierra. If the forecast, holds, this may significantly add to our snowpack throughout the range.

Your right GB about the forecast for the next week. I hope we get a bunch of snow, we need it.

Texan

[Harlen]

giantbrookie wrote:

This front approaching (Wed through at least Tues next week) will be a doozy if the NOAA forecast holds and whereas so far we've had more snow in the north, this one is forecast to dump a ton on the higher Sierra. If the forecast, holds, this may significantly add to our snowpack throughout the range.

Following the segue into snowpack discussion (with apologies to the OP newossab):
Yes, it will add to our snowpack, as John says, but more important to the folks that are keen on winter travels-- the weight of it may finally stabilize it. This year's snowpack has suffered from persistent weak layers, which carry the curse of a potential "step down" situation, leading to larger avalanches.

Here is an explanation of that from ESAC:

... Keep in mind that even a relatively small wind slab avalanche breaking in the upper snowpack may be enough to step down to persistent weak layers near the ground, creating a larger avalanche involving the full depth of the snowpack.

To return to newossab's original question about early planning for summer trips, I heard, or read somewhere an educated guess that this snow season might follow the pattern of one of our recent big snow years-- the 2018-19 winter-- in which most of the snow came in March. I'm sorry that I can't pin down that discussion, and so I don't know if there was any credible science behind it. Anybody else hear, or read that prediction?

Good luck on your summer trips newossab, Ian.

p.s. Note what was said above (by C9, I think), that you might hedge your bets by choosing an early trip with a route that avoids both hard creek/river crossings, and steep passes. One off the top of my head would be North Lake TH over easy Piute Pass, to land you in the wide open paradise of Humpreys Basin. Even if the snow persists-- look how beautiful it might be:

This was June of 2017, and newossab, there was alway open water around, supportive snow, and dry sandy ground for camping.

Snowy summer landscapes can be wonderful! .... just don't fall in.

[c9h13no3]

To return to newossab's original question about early planning for summer trips, I heard, or read somewhere an educated guess that this snow season might follow the pattern of one of our recent big snow years-- the 2018-19 winter-- in which most of the snow came in March. I'm sorry that I can't pin down that discussion, and so I don't know if there was any credible science behind it. Anybody else hear, or read that prediction?

I doubt it holds much weight. The 2019 winter had the biggest month in February where it jumped from an average snowpack to a big one. I remember 2018 having "Miracle March" storms, that brought us from a really poor year back closer to the average. But it still ended up being a low snow year.

Statistically, if you don't get snow in Dec-Jan-Feb, it is hard to make up for it in the spring.

[Harlen]

C9 wrote:

I remember 2018 having "Miracle March" storms, that brought us from a really poor year back closer to the average. But it still ended up being a low snow year.

Okay, 2018 may then be the model of a snow season year that we can hope for. Thx Sam.

[paul]

Just for fun, using the interactive regional snowpack plot page that I linked to earlier, I compared this year to each of the years they have available to plot. About 6 of them were fairly close at the point we are at now. All of those years ended up below average, though with considerable variation. 2008-9 ended up with the biggest snowpack but still a little below average across the board.
And Ian, even in the worst of those years (2006-7), I still found enough snow for a nice ski tour in the Emigrant.

[texan]

Looks like Brown Bear Pass to me, been over it too many times in the summer but never seen a pic like this in the winter. Still looks like a lot of snow during a dry snow year(06-07). Thanks for sharing.

Texan