Re: Making Plans For Summer Far In Advance
Posted: Tue Jan 01, 2019 9:15 am
My planning strategy continued to change over this last two decades due to increasing lack of permit availability. Over a decade plus ago would wait till late April early May to secure permit reservations because by mid April additional large winter storms are unlikely so then I can use my expertise to forecast what summer conditions will be like. Generally I have an excellent record over decades of predicting when optimal photographic aesthetic conditions will occur. I prefer peak greenery with wildflowers, still flowing ephemeral snowmelt streams, and snow still sprinkling across peaks. For recreation dot gov areas, one can view quota status while some other NFs not. Popular TH Saturday quotas usually fill first then Friday, Thursday, Sunday, Wednesday, Monday, Tuesday. Thus in March, I start occasionally looking at status and will wait until remaining permits have dwindled to the point waiting further is risky.
Understanding what conditions will be like by late April for a late July trip is complex and I use several online web sources to help make those assessments just as I do for earlier late winter and spring wildflower trips into our desert and coastal areas. Generally June thru mid July are likely to be smoke free while after that is increasingly not. For 10k elevations after average winters, late July is about optimal aesthetically and mosquitoes will have waned. For 9k mid July. For 6k to 8k late May thru June. Topography and sun exposure are also factors.
In any case, especially if solo thus flexible, I prefer to pull the trigger on trips at short notice in order to avoid unproductive photographic weather though am not as narrowly picky as maverick. On short trips one day's hike from THs with lake reflection targets, I tend to pay much attention to wind forecasts.
Understanding what conditions will be like by late April for a late July trip is complex and I use several online web sources to help make those assessments just as I do for earlier late winter and spring wildflower trips into our desert and coastal areas. Generally June thru mid July are likely to be smoke free while after that is increasingly not. For 10k elevations after average winters, late July is about optimal aesthetically and mosquitoes will have waned. For 9k mid July. For 6k to 8k late May thru June. Topography and sun exposure are also factors.
In any case, especially if solo thus flexible, I prefer to pull the trigger on trips at short notice in order to avoid unproductive photographic weather though am not as narrowly picky as maverick. On short trips one day's hike from THs with lake reflection targets, I tend to pay much attention to wind forecasts.