Re: Weather Forecasting by the Clouds
Posted: Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:55 pm
One of the problems with books/articles/discussions of field weather forecasting in the summer is that most of it assumes a frontal system model common in the Midwest and east coast. The southwest including the Sierra is dominated by the North American Monsoon in the summer – quite different from a frontal system.
The North American monsoon usually forms over the four corners region in July. Since it is a high pressure system it produces a clockwise rotation often moving into the Sierra roughly from the south. It usually picks up moisture from the Gulf of California and northern Mexico and sometimes the Gulf of Mexico. If it reaches the Sierra, as it rises in the midday it cools and produces precip.
As has been mentioned, the key is watching the clouds. My daily forecast method is fairly crude. If there is significant buildup mid to late morning, I plan for likely storms. Otherwise I expect it will likely be dry (doesn’t always work?).
For a short range forecast prior to a trip, I look at the weather maps for afternoon monsoon activity over the four corners (usually there in July). If it reaches into or across Nevada, it often gets into the Sierra. If not, it will likely be mostly dry for the next few days.
When disaster strikes: My worst trips weather-wise have been associated with hurricanes in Mexico and western Gulf of Mexico. Sometimes the remnants of a tropical hurricane move north and are captured by the monsoon and dragged into the Sierra – very bad. Watch for news of these storms when they move north.
Years ago I thought I could use my altimeter to monitor for impending storms. It doesn’t work in the southwest. Monsoons do not produce pressure shifts prior to storms the way that frontal systems do. A digression – I was once looking at reviews for a high quality altimeter and saw a review with one star. The guy was using it in the Sierra and thought it was defective because it didn’t show a pressure drop prior to thunderstorms. His thinking was defective, not the altimeter.
On the other hand I am interested in photography. Blue skies usually produce boring images (almost as boring as grey skies). The best landscape photos usually are produced around building and clearing storms. A mild monsoon is often the best.
The North American monsoon usually forms over the four corners region in July. Since it is a high pressure system it produces a clockwise rotation often moving into the Sierra roughly from the south. It usually picks up moisture from the Gulf of California and northern Mexico and sometimes the Gulf of Mexico. If it reaches the Sierra, as it rises in the midday it cools and produces precip.
As has been mentioned, the key is watching the clouds. My daily forecast method is fairly crude. If there is significant buildup mid to late morning, I plan for likely storms. Otherwise I expect it will likely be dry (doesn’t always work?).
For a short range forecast prior to a trip, I look at the weather maps for afternoon monsoon activity over the four corners (usually there in July). If it reaches into or across Nevada, it often gets into the Sierra. If not, it will likely be mostly dry for the next few days.
When disaster strikes: My worst trips weather-wise have been associated with hurricanes in Mexico and western Gulf of Mexico. Sometimes the remnants of a tropical hurricane move north and are captured by the monsoon and dragged into the Sierra – very bad. Watch for news of these storms when they move north.
Years ago I thought I could use my altimeter to monitor for impending storms. It doesn’t work in the southwest. Monsoons do not produce pressure shifts prior to storms the way that frontal systems do. A digression – I was once looking at reviews for a high quality altimeter and saw a review with one star. The guy was using it in the Sierra and thought it was defective because it didn’t show a pressure drop prior to thunderstorms. His thinking was defective, not the altimeter.
On the other hand I am interested in photography. Blue skies usually produce boring images (almost as boring as grey skies). The best landscape photos usually are produced around building and clearing storms. A mild monsoon is often the best.