2023 High Snowpack Conditions: Jinxing snow discussion

[c9h13no3]

Permit season is coming up, and we've got a decent indication on where the season's snowpack is going. However, by talking about it being a good snow year, we could jinx coming snow. So please wipe off all the jinxes from your boots before you enter this thread.

It's been a great start to the snow year. At this point I wouldn't plan a route in June that is sketchy in early season conditions. Good examples are the route up to Cecile Lake from Iceberg Lake, or Old Army Pass. Sure, these hazards can be mitigated with axes & crampons, but when you're carrying an overnight pack it's always more pleasant to avoid that stuff.

As of December 27th, the Southern Sierra is at 163% of average for this date. In addition, there are a solid week of storms on the way, and we're expected to remain in a favorable pattern for snow until mid-January. Afterwards, we're expected to receive below average precipitation for Jan-Feb-Mar in keeping with the La Nina pattern.

Snowpack.png

This doesn't mean we're getting an above average snow year like 2019 or 2017. But it does start to rule out the odds of really early entry like 2015 or 2021. Thus, as you start putting in permits for May & June, I'd temper my expectations on getting in early.

[commonloon]

Jinx ;-)

If you compare us to 2021-2022 (was that the year of a late Dec storm?) then you can see we look very similar at this point:

https://cdec.water.ca.gov/snowapp/swcchart.action

IMHO the April 1 metric is still the best as far as snow year, and it still leaves a wide variability in early season conditions depending on later storm activity.

I'm going to get a permit for May and have my skis ready or maybe my trail runners...

[texan]

To me its too early to predict anything except we are getting pounded right now with snow which is great. I always look at Mammoth Ski Resort and if they get 200 inches of snow by the end of December. usually it will be a good snow year but that isn't always true. Like last year, I just hope on 4/1 we will be at least normal for a change.

Texan

[c9h13no3]

To me its too early to predict anything

This is somewhat true, but May & June permits are being released. So you'll at least have to predict whether you wanna put $20 or whatever to a trip.

So yes, we're trying to make a guess with 1 month worth of data with 5 months to go. But that one month has been atypical enough, it makes a dry year less likely.

We Californians always order our snow in bulk shipments. :-)

[texan]

To me its too early to predict anything

This is somewhat true, but May & June permits are being released. So you'll at least have to predict whether you wanna put $20 or whatever to a trip.

So yes, we're trying to make a guess with 1 month worth of data with 5 months to go. But that one month has been atypical enough, it makes a dry year less likely.

We Californians always order our snow in bulk shipments. :-)

Well my username on here is Texan because I lived their when I first logged on here. I have lived in California more years than any other state and currently live in Arizona. Anyway let's hope we get a lot of snow we need it, in Arizona too!!!!

Texan

[fpb56]

I hope for the sake of the forests it keeps snowin all season. I’m a little concerned about the possibility of being cut off by a stream with a high flow rate in late June.

[Wandering Daisy]

Since I mostly go alone, I am not doing anymore early reservations. It seems there are lots of permit changes and I have not had much problem getting a permit late. Yes, I may not get my #1 permit but there are so many other available permits. Last year I did some pre-permit trips in Yosemite but I would guess that this year pre-permit may mean snowshoe trips.

[texan]

Just checked the website for snowfall depth and Leavitt Lake which usually get more snow than any sensor in the Sierras is almost 11ft. That's great news keep the snow coming.

Texan

LEAVITT LAKE (LVT)
Elevation: 9600' · WALKER R basin · Operator: Natural Resources Conservation Service
Query executed Sunday at 13:24:19

Provisional data, subject to change.
Select a sensor type for a plot of data.

Hourly Data
Earlier

DATE / TIME
PST SNOW WC
INCHES SNOW DP
INCHES RAIN
INCHES TEMP
DEG F
01/01/2023 02:00 34.10 316 N 23.60 20
01/01/2023 03:00 34.10 316 N 23.60 20
01/01/2023 04:00 34.10 131 23.60 20
01/01/2023 05:00 34.10 131 23.60 20
01/01/2023 06:00 34.10 131 23.50 19
01/01/2023 07:00 34.10 131 23.50 17
01/01/2023 08:00 34.10 130 23.50 16
01/01/2023 09:00 34.10 129 23.50 17
01/01/2023 10:00 34.10 129 23.50 17
01/01/2023 11:00 34.10 128 23.60 17
01/01/2023 12:00 34.10 127 23.60 18
01/01/2023 13:00 -- -- -- --

[maverick]

DWR:

https://water.ca.gov/News/News-Releases ... n-Forecast

[sparky]

lets hope it keeps rolling through instead of fizzling out like it will sometimes do