Some of the news on the impact:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/april-re ... 44935.html
https://www.businessinsider.com/initial ... rus-2020-4
https://thehill.com/homenews/news/49248 ... oronavirus
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/13/ ... -pandemic/
https://www.msn.com/en-us/finance/compa ... r-BB12zpX5
Not just the US:
https://www.ibtimes.com/coronavirus-may ... st-2957669
Corona Virus
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TahoeJeff
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Re: Corona Virus
Higher taxes never reduce the deficit. Governments spend whatever they take in and then whatever they can get away with.
Milton Friedman
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balzaccom
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Re: Corona Virus
Some posters here seem to be ignoring key points. Kudos to Rayfound for an excellent post putting all this in perspective. My thoughts:
1. Current estimates (and again, we still don't know enough) place the mortality rate of the Coronavirus somewhere between 2-4% (from a high of nearly 10% in Italy to a low of below 1% in Germany). The mortality rate of the flu last year was approximately 0.1--0.15%. That makes the coronavirus 20-40 times deadlier than the flu. Sorry, but that is basic math. The flu affected approximately 40-60 million in the USA people last year. About 60,000 people died--as noted, comparable to car accidents and other major causes of death in the USA. But if the same number of people who contracted the flu last year contracted coronavirus, the death toll would be around 2.4 Million. And that's if coronavirus is no more contagious than the flu. Current studies indicate is much more contagious.
2. Estimates now project current deaths in the USA at somewhere between 60,000 and 200,000--and that is despite that massive social distancing campaign throughout the country. That social distancing campaign has clearly worked. By current estimates, that social distancing effort has reduced deaths by more than 2,000,000 people, as per above, and it has softened the impact on our medical system and facilities. For examples of how things might have turned out differently, note that Spain and Italy were much slower to adopt such policies--they waited until the disease was more widespread. And the result has been considerable worse, both in terms of percentage of the population affected and in mortality rates. Other countries reacted more quickly (notably Germany and S. Korea) and their results are considerably better than ours.
3. Those impacts on hospitals and the health care system are also hugely important. The flu season lasts six months, and those cases and deaths are spread out over that time period. Same with traffic accidents and other major causes of death. But this virus is faster than that, because it is more contagious. Again, if you look at how quickly it spread in Italy before social distancing was put in place, the results completely overwhelmed the health care system in a very short period of time. (Obviously this could be one reason Italy's death rate is higher than Germany's.) But if that is the result when social distancing in not in place, then we might well expect the same thing here. And the resulting mortality rates would be much higher. This has already happened in NYC and a few other areas in the USA...
4. But that is only measuring the mortality rate. Current studies show that there may be as many as 25% of all people who get no symptoms from COVID19. That's great. But the majority of people who contract the virus do show symptoms, and a substantial segment--between 25 and 50%--show serious health issues that require them to miss significant time at work. Again, using our math from above, if 50,000 people contract coronavirus in the USA, then not only do 2,000.000 people die, but another 20-25 million people are laid up and unable to work. Those who claim that this social distancing campaign has had an unendurable impact on the economy do not recognize the impact 2,000,000 deaths and 20,000,000 people unable to work would have on our economy. And please remember that those numbers are based on COVID19 being no more contagious than the flu. It is, by all measures so far, MORE contagious than the flu. So those numbers would increase, as would the impacts on our economy.
5. So with no social distancing in place, we have a virus that spreads much more quickly than the flu. It's mortality rate is 20-40 times higher than the flu. And it moves much more quickly through the population than the flu. The media always prints what is most exciting and scary. No question. but the policies and closures around the country are a result of top experts in immunology making very careful studies and determinations. Not that California jumped ahead of the rest of the country in social distancing. In spite of being the largest state by far in terms of population, and the fact that we are closely tied to international travel and trade with Asia, we are only fifth in terms of cases of COVID19, and other states with less strict policies are passing us by each week.
It's disingenuous to say: "this isn't such a big deal, because the flu kills this many people every year." The only reason we can being to compare the now limited impact of this virus to the flu is because we successfully implemented massive controls to limit its spread. Without those controls, it would be massively worse than the flu. As I fear we are about to find out in other parts of the world.
1. Current estimates (and again, we still don't know enough) place the mortality rate of the Coronavirus somewhere between 2-4% (from a high of nearly 10% in Italy to a low of below 1% in Germany). The mortality rate of the flu last year was approximately 0.1--0.15%. That makes the coronavirus 20-40 times deadlier than the flu. Sorry, but that is basic math. The flu affected approximately 40-60 million in the USA people last year. About 60,000 people died--as noted, comparable to car accidents and other major causes of death in the USA. But if the same number of people who contracted the flu last year contracted coronavirus, the death toll would be around 2.4 Million. And that's if coronavirus is no more contagious than the flu. Current studies indicate is much more contagious.
2. Estimates now project current deaths in the USA at somewhere between 60,000 and 200,000--and that is despite that massive social distancing campaign throughout the country. That social distancing campaign has clearly worked. By current estimates, that social distancing effort has reduced deaths by more than 2,000,000 people, as per above, and it has softened the impact on our medical system and facilities. For examples of how things might have turned out differently, note that Spain and Italy were much slower to adopt such policies--they waited until the disease was more widespread. And the result has been considerable worse, both in terms of percentage of the population affected and in mortality rates. Other countries reacted more quickly (notably Germany and S. Korea) and their results are considerably better than ours.
3. Those impacts on hospitals and the health care system are also hugely important. The flu season lasts six months, and those cases and deaths are spread out over that time period. Same with traffic accidents and other major causes of death. But this virus is faster than that, because it is more contagious. Again, if you look at how quickly it spread in Italy before social distancing was put in place, the results completely overwhelmed the health care system in a very short period of time. (Obviously this could be one reason Italy's death rate is higher than Germany's.) But if that is the result when social distancing in not in place, then we might well expect the same thing here. And the resulting mortality rates would be much higher. This has already happened in NYC and a few other areas in the USA...
4. But that is only measuring the mortality rate. Current studies show that there may be as many as 25% of all people who get no symptoms from COVID19. That's great. But the majority of people who contract the virus do show symptoms, and a substantial segment--between 25 and 50%--show serious health issues that require them to miss significant time at work. Again, using our math from above, if 50,000 people contract coronavirus in the USA, then not only do 2,000.000 people die, but another 20-25 million people are laid up and unable to work. Those who claim that this social distancing campaign has had an unendurable impact on the economy do not recognize the impact 2,000,000 deaths and 20,000,000 people unable to work would have on our economy. And please remember that those numbers are based on COVID19 being no more contagious than the flu. It is, by all measures so far, MORE contagious than the flu. So those numbers would increase, as would the impacts on our economy.
5. So with no social distancing in place, we have a virus that spreads much more quickly than the flu. It's mortality rate is 20-40 times higher than the flu. And it moves much more quickly through the population than the flu. The media always prints what is most exciting and scary. No question. but the policies and closures around the country are a result of top experts in immunology making very careful studies and determinations. Not that California jumped ahead of the rest of the country in social distancing. In spite of being the largest state by far in terms of population, and the fact that we are closely tied to international travel and trade with Asia, we are only fifth in terms of cases of COVID19, and other states with less strict policies are passing us by each week.
It's disingenuous to say: "this isn't such a big deal, because the flu kills this many people every year." The only reason we can being to compare the now limited impact of this virus to the flu is because we successfully implemented massive controls to limit its spread. Without those controls, it would be massively worse than the flu. As I fear we are about to find out in other parts of the world.
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TahoeJeff
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Re: Corona Virus
Well here is some cut & paste from some people around the world, highly educated on the subject (not random internet posters):
Dr. David Katz is an American physician and founding director of the Yale University Prevention Research Center
What he says:
I am deeply concerned that the social, economic and public health consequences of this near-total meltdown of normal life — schools and businesses closed, gatherings banned — will be long-lasting and calamitous, possibly graver than the direct toll of the virus itself. The stock market will bounce back in time, but many businesses never will. The unemployment, impoverishment and despair likely to result will be public health scourges of the first order.
– “Is Our Fight Against Coronavirus Worse Than the Disease?”, New York Times 20th March 2020
Dr Joel Kettner is professor of Community Health Sciences and Surgery at Manitoba University, former Chief Public Health Officer for Manitoba province and Medical Director of the International Centre for Infectious Diseases.
What he says:
I have never seen anything like this, anything anywhere near like this. I’m not talking about the pandemic, because I’ve seen 30 of them, one every year. It is called influenza. And other respiratory illness viruses, we don’t always know what they are. But I’ve never seen this reaction, and I’m trying to understand why.
[…]
I worry about the message to the public, about the fear of coming into contact with people, being in the same space as people, shaking their hands, having meetings with people. I worry about many, many consequences related to that.
[…]
In Hubei, in the province of Hubei, where there has been the most cases and deaths by far, the actual number of cases reported is 1 per 1000 people and the actual rate of deaths reported is 1 per 20,000. So maybe that would help to put things into perspective.
Dr John Ioannidis Professor of Medicine, of Health Research and Policy and of Biomedical Data Science, at Stanford University School of Medicine and a Professor of Statistics at Stanford University School of Humanities and Sciences. He is director of the Stanford Prevention Research Center, and co-director of the Meta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford (METRICS).
He is also the editor-in-chief of the European Journal of Clinical Investigation. He was chairman at the Department of Hygiene and Epidemiology, University of Ioannina School of Medicine as well as adjunct professor at Tufts University School of Medicine.
As a physician, scientist and author he has made contributions to evidence-based medicine, epidemiology, data science and clinical research. In addition, he pioneered the field of meta-research. He has shown that much of the published research does not meet good scientific standards of evidence.
What he says:
Patients who have been tested for SARS-CoV-2 are disproportionately those with severe symptoms and bad outcomes. As most health systems have limited testing capacity, selection bias may even worsen in the near future.
The one situation where an entire, closed population was tested was the Diamond Princess cruise ship and its quarantine passengers. The case fatality rate there was 1.0%, but this was a largely elderly population, in which the death rate from Covid-19 is much higher.
[…]
Could the Covid-19 case fatality rate be that low? No, some say, pointing to the high rate in elderly people. However, even some so-called mild or common-cold-type coronaviruses that have been known for decades can have case fatality rates as high as 8% when they infect elderly people in nursing homes.
[…]
If we had not known about a new virus out there, and had not checked individuals with PCR tests, the number of total deaths due to “influenza-like illness” would not seem unusual this year. At most, we might have casually noted that flu this season seems to be a bit worse than average.
– “A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data”, Stat News, 17th March 2020
Frank Ulrich Montgomery is German radiologist, former President of the German Medical Association and Deputy Chairman of the World Medical Association.
What he says:
I’m not a fan of lockdown. Anyone who imposes something like this must also say when and how to pick it up again. Since we have to assume that the virus will be with us for a long time, I wonder when we will return to normal? You can’t keep schools and daycare centers closed until the end of the year. Because it will take at least that long until we have a vaccine. Italy has imposed a lockdown and has the opposite effect. They quickly reached their capacity limits, but did not slow down the virus spread within the lockdown.
– Interview in General Anzeiger, 18th March 2020
Dr Peter Goetzsche is Professor of Clinical Research Design and Analysis at the University of Copenhagen and founder of the Cochrane Medical Collaboration. He has written several books on corruption in the field of medicine and the power of big pharmaceutical companies.
What he says:
Our main problem is that no one will ever get in trouble for measures that are too draconian. They will only get in trouble if they do too little. So, our politicians and those working with public health do much more than they should do.
No such draconian measures were applied during the 2009 influenza pandemic, and they obviously cannot be applied every winter, which is all year round, as it is always winter somewhere. We cannot close down the whole world permanently.
Should it turn out that the epidemic wanes before long, there will be a queue of people wanting to take credit for this. And we can be damned sure draconian measures will be applied again next time. But remember the joke about tigers. “Why do you blow the horn?” “To keep the tigers away.” “But there are no tigers here.” “There you see!”
– “Corona: an epidemic of mass panic”, blog post on Deadly Medicines 21st March 2020
Dr. David Katz is an American physician and founding director of the Yale University Prevention Research Center
What he says:
I am deeply concerned that the social, economic and public health consequences of this near-total meltdown of normal life — schools and businesses closed, gatherings banned — will be long-lasting and calamitous, possibly graver than the direct toll of the virus itself. The stock market will bounce back in time, but many businesses never will. The unemployment, impoverishment and despair likely to result will be public health scourges of the first order.
– “Is Our Fight Against Coronavirus Worse Than the Disease?”, New York Times 20th March 2020
Dr Joel Kettner is professor of Community Health Sciences and Surgery at Manitoba University, former Chief Public Health Officer for Manitoba province and Medical Director of the International Centre for Infectious Diseases.
What he says:
I have never seen anything like this, anything anywhere near like this. I’m not talking about the pandemic, because I’ve seen 30 of them, one every year. It is called influenza. And other respiratory illness viruses, we don’t always know what they are. But I’ve never seen this reaction, and I’m trying to understand why.
[…]
I worry about the message to the public, about the fear of coming into contact with people, being in the same space as people, shaking their hands, having meetings with people. I worry about many, many consequences related to that.
[…]
In Hubei, in the province of Hubei, where there has been the most cases and deaths by far, the actual number of cases reported is 1 per 1000 people and the actual rate of deaths reported is 1 per 20,000. So maybe that would help to put things into perspective.
Dr John Ioannidis Professor of Medicine, of Health Research and Policy and of Biomedical Data Science, at Stanford University School of Medicine and a Professor of Statistics at Stanford University School of Humanities and Sciences. He is director of the Stanford Prevention Research Center, and co-director of the Meta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford (METRICS).
He is also the editor-in-chief of the European Journal of Clinical Investigation. He was chairman at the Department of Hygiene and Epidemiology, University of Ioannina School of Medicine as well as adjunct professor at Tufts University School of Medicine.
As a physician, scientist and author he has made contributions to evidence-based medicine, epidemiology, data science and clinical research. In addition, he pioneered the field of meta-research. He has shown that much of the published research does not meet good scientific standards of evidence.
What he says:
Patients who have been tested for SARS-CoV-2 are disproportionately those with severe symptoms and bad outcomes. As most health systems have limited testing capacity, selection bias may even worsen in the near future.
The one situation where an entire, closed population was tested was the Diamond Princess cruise ship and its quarantine passengers. The case fatality rate there was 1.0%, but this was a largely elderly population, in which the death rate from Covid-19 is much higher.
[…]
Could the Covid-19 case fatality rate be that low? No, some say, pointing to the high rate in elderly people. However, even some so-called mild or common-cold-type coronaviruses that have been known for decades can have case fatality rates as high as 8% when they infect elderly people in nursing homes.
[…]
If we had not known about a new virus out there, and had not checked individuals with PCR tests, the number of total deaths due to “influenza-like illness” would not seem unusual this year. At most, we might have casually noted that flu this season seems to be a bit worse than average.
– “A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data”, Stat News, 17th March 2020
Frank Ulrich Montgomery is German radiologist, former President of the German Medical Association and Deputy Chairman of the World Medical Association.
What he says:
I’m not a fan of lockdown. Anyone who imposes something like this must also say when and how to pick it up again. Since we have to assume that the virus will be with us for a long time, I wonder when we will return to normal? You can’t keep schools and daycare centers closed until the end of the year. Because it will take at least that long until we have a vaccine. Italy has imposed a lockdown and has the opposite effect. They quickly reached their capacity limits, but did not slow down the virus spread within the lockdown.
– Interview in General Anzeiger, 18th March 2020
Dr Peter Goetzsche is Professor of Clinical Research Design and Analysis at the University of Copenhagen and founder of the Cochrane Medical Collaboration. He has written several books on corruption in the field of medicine and the power of big pharmaceutical companies.
What he says:
Our main problem is that no one will ever get in trouble for measures that are too draconian. They will only get in trouble if they do too little. So, our politicians and those working with public health do much more than they should do.
No such draconian measures were applied during the 2009 influenza pandemic, and they obviously cannot be applied every winter, which is all year round, as it is always winter somewhere. We cannot close down the whole world permanently.
Should it turn out that the epidemic wanes before long, there will be a queue of people wanting to take credit for this. And we can be damned sure draconian measures will be applied again next time. But remember the joke about tigers. “Why do you blow the horn?” “To keep the tigers away.” “But there are no tigers here.” “There you see!”
– “Corona: an epidemic of mass panic”, blog post on Deadly Medicines 21st March 2020
Higher taxes never reduce the deficit. Governments spend whatever they take in and then whatever they can get away with.
Milton Friedman
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rlown
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Re: Corona Virus
That was my favorite. I would also like to see the media report on underlying medical conditions rather than just blame the virus. The virus probably just exacerbates problems that already exist. Evolution is sometimes hard, but It makes those that remain behind stronger.
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TahoeJeff
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Re: Corona Virus
Balzaccom, form much older posts of yours I believe you've said you are no longer working and own a cabin in the mountains. That would put you in the "retired and well off" category I would think, and therefore probably not really hard hit by the economic shutdown. Also, I think you posted you got really sick after/during a trip to Death Valley. That may have compromised your immune system or could be an underlying health issue?
So I completely understand your grave concern for the Coronavirus.
Can you not see that not everybody is in the same boat, and may be perfectly healthy, need to pay bills, and are not getting all worked up over it?
If someone doesn't need to work, and self-quarantine, go for it! Not everyone can....
So I completely understand your grave concern for the Coronavirus.
Can you not see that not everybody is in the same boat, and may be perfectly healthy, need to pay bills, and are not getting all worked up over it?
If someone doesn't need to work, and self-quarantine, go for it! Not everyone can....
Higher taxes never reduce the deficit. Governments spend whatever they take in and then whatever they can get away with.
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rayfound
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Re: Corona Virus
Not a single one of those quotes provided any evidence. The closest is the diamond princess quote... Except it is incomplete/made before that group of infections has run its course...As there have now been 12 deaths among the 712 confirmed infections. (1.7%). The grand princess group has seen 3/103 dead... So again, pinning your argument to the hopes that the disease isn't particularly deadly is hopes, but it is not supported by evidence.
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rayfound
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Re: Corona Virus
As with before, I will set aside my disagreement with the morality on this matter.... but just from a factual standpoint, a virus that exerts a selection pressure on a group that is primarily past the age of reproduction, does not result in any evolutionary pressure. Short form: killing old people has no effect on the genetics that were passed along.rlown wrote: ↑Mon Apr 13, 2020 1:48 pmThat was my favorite. I would also like to see the media report on underlying medical conditions rather than just blame the virus. The virus probably just exacerbates problems that already exist. Evolution is sometimes hard, but It makes those that remain behind stronger.
Comorbidities exist, and exist for every cause of death, that is not unique to the covid 19 crisis. Nobody dies of AIDS, they die of secondary infection that was exacerbated by their disease. Many many cancer patients eventually succumb to secondary infection, not the primary effect of their cancer.
There is a whole lot of punditry and motivated reasoning out there right now that wants to paint this as an overreaction, or something that we should get over really quickly, but to make those arguments they require you to overlook the evidence of what is going on.
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TahoeJeff
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Re: Corona Virus
Rayfound, are you saying that :
an American physician and founding director of the Yale University Prevention Research Center,
a professor of Community Health Sciences and Surgery at Manitoba University, former Chief Public Health Officer for Manitoba province and Medical a Director of the International Centre for Infectious Diseases,
a Professor of Medicine, of Health Research and Policy and of Biomedical Data Science, at Stanford University School of Medicine and a Professor of Statistics at Stanford University School of Humanities and Sciences,
a former President of the German Medical Association and Deputy Chairman of the World Medical Association,
and a Professor of Clinical Research Design and Analysis at the University of Copenhagen and founder of the Cochrane Medical Collaboration
don't know what they're talking about?
Pretty impressive credentials from around the world I would think.
an American physician and founding director of the Yale University Prevention Research Center,
a professor of Community Health Sciences and Surgery at Manitoba University, former Chief Public Health Officer for Manitoba province and Medical a Director of the International Centre for Infectious Diseases,
a Professor of Medicine, of Health Research and Policy and of Biomedical Data Science, at Stanford University School of Medicine and a Professor of Statistics at Stanford University School of Humanities and Sciences,
a former President of the German Medical Association and Deputy Chairman of the World Medical Association,
and a Professor of Clinical Research Design and Analysis at the University of Copenhagen and founder of the Cochrane Medical Collaboration
don't know what they're talking about?
Pretty impressive credentials from around the world I would think.
Higher taxes never reduce the deficit. Governments spend whatever they take in and then whatever they can get away with.
Milton Friedman
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rayfound
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Re: Corona Virus
I am saying that credentials don't matter if you don't bring the evidence.
that is especially true when the opinion is contradicted by the opinions of most other experts in the same fields.
that is especially true when the opinion is contradicted by the opinions of most other experts in the same fields.
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franklin411
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Re: Corona Virus
India, Vietnam, the Philippines, Thailand....these are all poor nations with extremely dense populations and poor health care resources, and they're all very close to China. You've got slums in India were people live 6 or 8 to a tiny room the size of a walk in closet. You've got slums where close to a million people live in less than a square mile. There's no such thing as social distancing in that scenario.
So...why aren't people dying like flies over there?
https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/st ... y-one-room
So...why aren't people dying like flies over there?
https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/st ... y-one-room
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