Corona Virus

[MichaelRPetrick]

It's been building for a while as I see a summer being wasted and an economy destroyed, which by the way, could mean 10's of thousands of additional deaths per year for year's to come and reduced life spans in general due to the affects a large economic depression would have on nutrition, medical care, and health in general. But those are acceptable I guess.

The notion that depressions lower life expectancy feels intuitively correct. But the facts don't really bear it out.

This is something I see people say a lot... but looking at data one finds the vast vast vast majority of economic recessions and depressions see... frequently no decrease, and sometimes an age-adjusted increase in lifespan. (Raw death numbers don't tell the whole story in an aging population.)

e.g. the following countries life expectancy charts:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D7NabOoVsAET4oL.jpg

Even the drop that appeared to occur during the Depression in the US was just the numbers bouncing around within the normal span of noise/randomness over the previous 30 years. The only thing that really stands out as fundamentally a change from the usual trajectory on this older data is the 1918 flu...

https://www.disabled-world.com/pics/1/a ... ctancy.png

There's lots of reasons why: people are driving less - which is both a direct killer through accidents and indirect killer through obesity, people do less risky behavior overall, they're even exercising more because it's a free hobby, and factories are putting out fewer pollutants: the tiny particulates in smog don't just kill people with emphesyma, COPD, and lung cancer years later, they're also causative in both the plaque formation and inflammatory pathways that lead to heart attacks, smoking and drinking also tend to decrease during recessions simply because they're expensive hobbies, etc.

A paper analyzing at the decline in mortality in Europe during the recession 10 years ago - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6368579/

Life expectancy during the Great Depression:
https://www.pnas.org/content/106/41/17290

TL;DR Suicide increases during a depression, but most every other cause of death decreases.

[freestone]

If the trails are closed this summer, it’s not like the end of the world. Trails like the JMT could really use a break and heal. In many areas, we are trampling the forest into dust with sometimes misguided love for the wilderness.

[SSSdave]

Am expecting more remote public lands minus national parks and state parks will continue to remain open as they now are while traditionally more popular areas may close, especially those used by car campers because they tend to be on an umbilical cord to local resources. Car oriented visitors also tend to be ignorant of what is possible at more remote places. That also means rural areas near large urban populations may also close down if masses find out about them, especially through social media exposure. If one actually reads the orders that have been issued at California state and local government levels, they are readily encouraging getting outside as long as one is practicing social distancing and other safe practices as recommended. Even Gavin Newsom encouraged that attitude during a recent press briefing. Where the getting outside notion becomes an issue that needs massaging is in dense urban areas like San Francisco and LA.

When these orders first rolled out nationally that was here in the SFBA, there were problems as a minority of people were not able to figure out what to do responsibly just using common sense that most of us did from the get go. But through peer pressure, media pressure, the pain of closing public areas too many were congregating at irresponsibly, and watching what others were doing, the rest have increasingly become enlightened too. Just consider how the majority going into supermarkets now have face masks while 3 weeks ago I was about the only one. As someone walking local urban parks, almost everyone is now playing the game of avoiding walking close to others. It is a skill one easily picks up, and novel situations just require a bit of common sense thinking. Walking too close to someone passing on a narrow footbridge or in a supermarket isle? Easy, hold your breath a few seconds. It isn't rocket science.

Although all my daily exercise the last 6 weeks has been locally walking out from my residence without say driving even 5 miles to local mountainous areas that have been perfectly legal to park at and hike, given most of the public has now figured it out, am now expecting to be doing some driving to day trips out to more obscure local hiking areas and have no worries I cannot do so safely. What is greatly more an issue in terms of reducing contagion and new cases is what is going on locally in supermarkets and large stores like Walmart, Target, Home Depot, Lowes, and drug stores, all of which remain open. As more of the public falls in line of what is responsible behavior, there is more chance authorities will loosen the lock down gradually successfully. Thus even a few weeks of shelter in place has taught enough of the public how to act that reopening the world is now likely to proceed successfully.

I stopped from a distance to watch the entrance of a Walmart Tuesday on my way back from driving, delivering masks to 5 relatives in the region. Given this was just a few days after the state advisory to wear masks, maybe half were wearing masks. Although maybe half the shoppers were coming out with carts full of food and other supplies they likely had to buy lists for purchasing 2 and more week supplies of, maybe a quarter were carrying out what they could carrying in their 2 hands, and another quarter seem to come out without anything as though they were just there to satisfy their frequent shopping addiction. And was surprised at the fair numbers of mom's bringing along their young children in tow. There is a home depot 3 blocks away and its parking lot has been full as many are going there for supplies to work on their homes and yards.

[rlown]

My mom and I got eggs and bread as well as a couple lasagna at costco. couldn't find the taquitos. They're doing the line up and wait thing. Won't matter. Half in masks. We weren't. Breathe deep and take a risk as it's not that big of a risk. I don't spend a lot of time researching theory; Just live and don't lay down if you get it.
Next trip is to get brewing supplies. Found a supplier of blueberries so, the Mead starts Monday. Still have to find my favorite porter recipe. It's in a box with my other brewing books. Porter is a whole grain deal.

[Wandering Daisy]

RE: Tahoe Jeff's comment, page before. Doctors generally adhere to "standard practice", which are specified in writing. It is easy to be armchair Monday morning quarterback; more difficult to be the one making life saving decisions, sometimes with only minutes to contemplate. If the outcome is bad, there are armies of lawyers going after you and the hospital. My daughter is a doctor, and far more times it is the patient that demands pills, not that the doctor pushes pills. Pills are advertised directly to the public with that little note at the bottom; "ask your doctor about..." I know a few people who "doctor shop" until they find one who will prescribe them the wanted pills. Undoubtedly there are some doctors who do push pills, but it is not the majority. For many conditions, pills actually work better than other interventions. The problem is not the pills, but the outrageous cost of the pills. And the patient certainly is not forced to take the pills. My Mom hated pills, but the truth is that pills were what kept her alive and functioning well from 90 to a few months short of 100 years old. She had fantastic doctors. They also withdrew pills or reduced dosage as needed as she aged. In the long run, find a good doctor, establish a relationship and communication and then trust them.

[TahoeJeff]

At least he is Social Distancing:

[dave54]

San Francisco and other cities requested a waiver from the single use bag ban, citing the risk of infection from reused bags from home.
This may be our chance to overturn a mistake. The law is misplaced environmentalism anyway. It is actually counterproductive and created new problems where only a minor to non-existent problem existed before.

Of course, the ban was ignored by many stores anyway.

[maverick]

Whole Foods and Safeway, in our area (Santa Clara), has not allowed personal shopping bags into the stores for a few weeks now.

[Lumbergh21]

Trader Joes has also banned outside bags. Problem for me is that I'm now required to use their carts that are handled by 100's? 1,000s? every day. Not a plus for me as I know where my bag has been and who has been using it. Can't say the same about the carts. Oh well.

[maverick]

Problem for me is that I'm now required to use their carts that are handled by 100's?

WF wipes down the carts and baskets.