High Sierra Topix

TehipiteTom wrote:

maverick wrote:Yes it's low, but March & April storms can make up for the last few months really quick.

Can, but probably won't. We're 5 days into March already, and the 5-day forecast is for maybe a dinky storm the next couple days and then clear the rest of the week. At this point, the odds of a 'normal' (or above-normal) snowpack are virtually nill.

"I agree with TT. Though march april storm can dramatically add snow depth the water content of the snowpack is very unlikely to come close to normal. I'm looking at late May trip to mid 9,000."

"I too do not think it will even reach normal levels, but look back at 2006, it could happen.
Would really like to be able to get out early this year, hit the higher elevations
by early July (maybe earlier), and yes, it makes me selfish, but didn't get out much at
all last year so there is a lot to make up for".

"Sure it could...but the word "miracle" in the phrase "March Miracle" kind of suggests how unlikely it is."

With all the negative waves out there no wonder were in a drought. Cool it with the negative waves and everyone think snow

Common4day

Last year I kept thinking it would stop snowing and get closer to normal and my thoughts had absolutly no impact on what happened. How could my limited brain capacity have any impact on the weather. :retard:

Mike

No negative waves here, will be happy to take a drought year this time around.

Last few days the NWS long range has been firming up a long range storm door opening and this evening now it is looking more than a maybe:

ANOTHER LONG-WAVE TROF WILL BE POSITIONED OFF THE COAST FOR TUESDAY
AND WILL BRING A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN TO OUR AREA. MODELS
HAVE BEEN HIGHLIGHTING THIS FOR MULTIPLE DAYS NOW AND WITH A SMALL
ENSEMBLE SPREAD DECIDED TO TO PUSH SOME POPS TO THE LIKELY LEVEL.
BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL
WITH A HIGH CONFIDENCE LEVEL.

I've skied a day up at Kirkwood 5 of the last 6 weekends and can state that even after last week's storm the roadside depths driving up SR88 are so shallow most all outside totally shady areas could melt out in May. Sun is rising to higher altitudes and days are lengthening faster now than it will at any time of the year as we near the equinox. Friday evening as I drove up it was below freezing at 7k. Then Saturday morning didn't break freezing until maybe 9am. But then really warmed up fast and was over 50F degrees by midday making for a wet mushy snow surface on any slopes in direct rays and generally melting surfaces even in shady areas. Good thing there is going to be a few inches added tonight with a couple cool days.

If next weeks weather pans out, maybe I'll hit the jackpot as I've scheduled a day of PTO that Friday and am hoping for fresh dry fluff. One indication of warm winter days and how spring may come early is I just saw a report that some swaths of poppies are showing in the Merced River Canyon that is about two weeks early.

maverick wrote:No negative waves here, will be happy to take a drought year this time around.

Me too!

(Okay, the wildflowers won't be much...but that's not a bad tradeoff for early season backpacking.)

I would trade some early season backpacking for a bit more snow. I recall previous dry years when forest fires spoiled all the views in the Sierra. After two bumper years for undergrowth, if this summer is super-dry, we may be set up for a horrible fire season.

Snowshoeing Donner Pass last Sunday

Looking grim. Come on snow!

Wouldn't that be great. Fight my way cross country to remote areas only to be blinded by smoke from forest fires!

I'm not counting any chickens yet. many things could happen. If we got normal snow from here out and a cooler than normal April and May, June might not be too far from normal. So we'll see what happens is my way of looking at it. However, I have a week-long ski trip planned into the Emigrant Wilderness at the end of April, and if the snow is too thin it will be a hiking trip, so either way I'll be able to report on the conditions when I get back from that.