High Sierra Topix

kpeter wrote:We look like we are way above 1995 to me.

I don't know where you get this from.

The current (Mar 1, 2017) statewide total is almost identical to that of April 1, 2011. It appears that 1995 was a bigger year than 2011 so it stands to reason that there was more snow in 1995 than there is today.

So it kind of depends. If it keeps on snowing like it did in February we're probably going to break records. But if it dries out and warms up we may not surpass 1995, never mind 1983. There's going to be a lot of snow either way.


Nice picture of Wanda Lake, by the way.

longri wrote:

kpeter wrote:We look like we are way above 1995 to me.

I don't know where you get this from.

The current (Mar 1, 2017) statewide total is almost identical to that of April 1, 2011. It appears that 1995 was a bigger year than 2011 so it stands to reason that there was more snow in 1995 than there is today.

So it kind of depends. If it keeps on snowing like it did in February we're probably going to break records. But if it dries out and warms up we may not surpass 1995, never mind 1983. There's going to be a lot of snow either way.


Nice picture of Wanda Lake, by the way.

The link my earlier post takes you to a graph where you can check the boxes for various years and see the snowpack levels.

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/snowap ... art.action

Unfortunately the annual boxes end before we get back to 1995, although they have a 1983 line for information. Try checking 10-11 and compare it with our current status and I think you will see that we are very far ahead of 1995 at this point in all three regions.

kpeter wrote:Try checking 10-11 and compare it with our current status and I think you will see that we are very far ahead of 1995 at this point in all three regions.

You can't see the line for 1995 so how can you say we're ahead of it?

I think there is an unstated assumption that the snow will continue to fall. It's a very human thing to do, to extrapolate based on recent history. But if you look back there are have been many extended periods where there was essentially no snow fall. In 2011 it was kind of dry through January and much of February. I spent a lot days climbing in Yosemite Valley in Jan/Feb 2011.

I didn't get into the backcountry in 1995 (had a young baby at home), so can't help with photos for that year.

I do want to point out that it's a bit early in the year to start guessing with any sort of precision what kinds of conditions to expect in the backcountry this summer. Peak snowpack usually occurs in April, so Mother Nature could gift us with one more month of wet weather. Then we're likely to dry out. Because the last few years were uncommonly dry, glaciers have withered and it may very well be that this year's snowmelt will proceed quickly as the weather warms. My guess is we will see summer conditions similar to 2011. For those thinking of venturing into the high country on July 4th weekend, there is likely to be a lot of snow on the ground, and lots of mosquitoes around camp. By early to mid August, most passes should be free of all but a few patches of snow.

Mike

Well, all high snow years referred to, were high snow April 1. I would think what really is important to us is the melt, not the total snow. I personally am hoping for a nice easy, steady, slow melt, even though it may wreck my backpacking. I would rather not see flooding like we had it here in 1997-8. A quick melt would be a disaster. This may be a good year to buy some micros-pikes and try them out. I have crampons, but they are so heavy to carry.

Fourth of July 2011 I did a trip from Sliver Lake up to Lost Lakes, Alger Lakes, etc. It was solid snow above Waugh Lake. But, it was a great trip, no big crossings, and really not much problems. Did an early trip from Echo Lake into Desolation, again, lots of walking on snow, but no problem, really. I had to wade but nothing horrible. I do remember one of the years when the melt washed out the bridge in Grand Canyon of the Tuolumne.

longri wrote:I think there is an unstated assumption that the snow will continue to fall. It's a very human thing to do, to extrapolate based on recent history. But if you look back there are have been many extended periods where there was essentially no snow fall. In 2011 it was kind of dry through January and much of February. I spent a lot days climbing in Yosemite Valley in Jan/Feb 2011.

Winter weather advisory in much of the Sierra this weekend through Monday to add to the totals, which has been the forecast going back several days. But agree, it ain't over yet.

This is a great post... I hope more people respond with more details. The picture of Wanda Lake on 7/31/2011 is..well sobering...
I did a trip over Cottonwood Pass and up into Miter Basin on like 7/15/2011. Cottonwood Pass was basically clear of snow ( just a couple of patches) but I tried to go up over Crabtree Pass, and there was too much snow and ice at the lake above Sky Blue Lake to proceed. In fact, the look of this lake made me think of "pressure ice" in Antarctica.. Iridescent, Primrose, and Erin were all frozen while Sky Blue was open.

I am worried more about stream crossings than snow probably for the month of July. Need to plan around them.

The other thing to keep in mind is that the "total snow pack percentage of normal" is usually some sort of statewide weighted average. It's a great metric for the water guys and not bad for wilderness enthusiasts either. But it's just one way to look at it and is not necessarily accurate for a given drainage or region. This year the Sierra appears to be getting relatively more snowfall than average as compared to the northern parts of the state.

One metric that illustrates this is a weighted average that LADWP creates using snow courses in the Owens Valley. These are stations between 9500' and 10800' and include Mammoth Pass, Rock Creek, South Lake, Cottonwood Lakes and others. By that measure we have already surpassed the snow pack of 1983.



The Tuolumne winter rangers recently reported record snow depth for March 1: "The snow surveys that we conducted this week revealed historical records for snow depth and water content for March 1. These records date back to 1930."

And the same is true of the north, apparently.

From today's Merc: "As of March 5, eight key weather stations from Lake Tahoe to Mount Shasta measured an average of 77.3 inches of precipitation since Oct. 1. A normal year is 50 inches, and this year’s total is even running above the monster winters of 1997-98 and 1982-83."

kpeter wrote:And the same is true of the north, apparently.

From today's Merc: "As of March 5, eight key weather stations from Lake Tahoe to Mount Shasta measured an average of 77.3 inches of precipitation since Oct. 1. A normal year is 50 inches, and this year’s total is even running above the monster winters of 1997-98 and 1982-83."

That's total precipitation, not just existent snow.