Overdue Hiker - Do You Have Any Info?

[SSSdave]

As time passes I wonder now out loud whether he may have gone down
the Muro Blanco since Taboose and Pinchot would have been out of the question
with the winds forecasted to be at 40 mph and a windchill of -8 or lower at higher
elevations on Tue (know because I was thinking of go up). Going down to lower
elevation towards Paradise in the banks of the Kings River could be done this year
with the lower water levels and dry summer we had, but how much snow was
there already on the ground from the previous weeks storm...

The scenario appears to be at dawn Monday snow began to fall. For some reason he may have not chose to escape and instead hunkered down. One needs to be storm skier to understand how unpleasant ridgelines can be during storm. What makes Taboose so uniquely bad is the pass is not abrupt but rather gradual miles long. Thus even during early morning Monday it could have been blowing pretty hard and difficult to see more than a few hundred feet. Just think of how bad visibility is atop Emigrant Chair at Squaw or Cornice at Kirkwood during even minor storms. Since I suspect his clothing was inadequate, he may have turned around simply because it was so cold, getting colder, and he could not see where he was going. And it may have been his feet got wet and began to freeze which is really scary.

So yeah down into the canyon. If his feet were damaged by the cold, even after the sun came out, going back up over Taboose through a foot or two of fresh new snow may have been quickly painful. So yeah down MB which is not a place I have visited but have read it is rather treeless but brushy in places. Gets that way because as the topo shows it is has steep smooth glaciated canyon walls that propogate avalanches though the latter would likely not be an issue a couple days later. However he'd need to get way down to below 6k to leave the snow and that is a long ways with inadequate footwear. So yeah could be hunkered down in MB with foot issues but I would expect the helicopters have already surveyed that and not seen tracks nor seen any sign of fires which is a bad sign. Hang in there partner!

[SandStorm]

Unfortunately I have no info, but I'm sure as hell pulling for you, Larry.

Come home safe and sound, brother.

[BrianF]

Like everyone else here I am hoping for the best and sending out good wishes to Larry and his friends and family. I think everyone here can so easily put ourselves in his shoes, especially those of us who regularly hike solo. I don't know Larry personally, but from reading his many posts, I know he has plenty of experience - a huge plus
I am also thankful for and concerned for the SAR personnel and hope they are all being safe. Having spent a few years on a SAR team, I know how desperately they want to find him and have a good outcome, and how that can lead to taking risks. I am hoping with the rest of you that he gets found soon or shows up tattered and worn at Cedar Grove.

[kpeter]

I've reread over the last 8 pages and have tried to sort out the chronology of what Larry would really have known about the weather. He did respond to SSSDave's weather warning on Wednesday night the 17th. At that time it was expected that the storm would hit on Wednesday morning the 24th. To this news he responded:

"But not until Wednesday. I'm hoping for one more High Sierra trip this weekend."
viewtopic.php?f=34&t=8510" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

He was aware a storm was coming, and was planning to get in and out before the storm hit.

I followed the NOAA link that SSSDave posted in his prescient weather warning post, and it took me to the Reno NOAA forecast. I cannot find a similar site where one can check the historic updates for a station further south. IF the weather updates happened at the same time as they did for Reno, then there is some troubling news about what Larry could have known. However, it may be that there were different forecasts available apart from NOAA. In any case, here is the problem:

The Reno NOAA forecast on Friday 3:22 am the 19th, the day he went in, was:
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL BE OUR FIRST CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION ACROSS NE CALIFORNIA AND NW NEVADA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEMS FOR NEXT WEEK.

That does not sound too threatening. That, unfortunately, was the last weather report issued before Larry started up the trailhead. The next NOAA update out of Reno was at 3:25PM, after his departure. It read:

FIRST WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON IS SET TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN CA/NV EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IN THE SIERRA FROM TAHOE NORTHWARD TO LASSEN COUNTY DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. ... SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT AROUND 7000-6500 FEET EARLY MONDAY MORNING, THEN COME DOWN QUICKLY TO 6000 FEET MONDAY NIGHT...AS LOW AS 4500 IN LASSEN COUNTY. SNOW AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE FOOT OF NEW SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SIERRA CREST FROM TAHOE NORTHWARD.

If Larry did not check the weather report Friday morning on his way to the trailhead, he would have expected the storm to hit two full days after he was out of the backcountry. If he checked it Friday morning on the way to the trailhead, he would have known that there was a "chance" of precipitation. But only 4 1/2 hours after he met Freestone the weather report turned very ugly, and he would have had no way of knowing.

Our hope must be that he took precautions and had packed some cold weather gear "just in case" the storm hit two days earlier than originally predicted.

[eee333]

You guys are so terrific for posting so much useful info and passing along info to others.

Per NPS search command recommendations, I've been emailing, calling and posting to various Facebook pages (Owens Valley gear stores, CA Sierra Club groups, etc.). I'll continue to get out the word tonight and over the weekend...or until Larry resurfaces. The flyer I've been distributing is the same SEKI one (http://www.nps.gov/seki/parknews/upload ... 4-2012.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;).

As far as I can tell from this thread, you all have posted to the following:

• Backpacking Light
  Whitney Zone
  SuperTopo
  SummitPost
  Whitney Portal Store msg board
  Yosemite News.info
  Rock Creek Board
  Whitney Zone update
  Mt. San Jacinto Outdoor Recreation board

I've posted to these FB groups, so far:

• Elevation, Sierra Adventure Essentials
  Sage to Summit
  Sierra Club Angeles Chapter
  Sierra Club Loma Prieta Chapter
  Sierra Club Loma Prieta Chapter - Peak Climbing Section
  Sierra Club SF Bay Chapter
  Sierra Mountain Center
  Value Sports

And the following stores have flyers, as far as I know, and have agreed to post them:

• Mammoth Mountaineering (Mammoth)
  The Gear Exchange/Mammoth Mountaineering (Bishop)
  Lone Pine Sporting Goods
  Allen Outdoor Products
  Mac's Sporting Goods
  Sierra Mountain Center
  Value Sports
  Wilsons Eastside Sports

I'll continue to reach out to other gear stores, and another friend has started contacting Reno and Bay venues.

It's hard to type when your fingers are crossed...

[maverick]

SEKI has given us an update the last two times at around 9 pm, hopefully we will get some good new tonight!!!!!!

Welcome to HST eee333!! Thank you so very much for your help to get the word out!!

[rlown]

no disrespect, but post the friggn SAR search map???

We actually don't know where they've looked, or where they're looking or now that it's dark, what the plan is tomorrow. It's a picture of the map where they looked.. upload it to the thread. Mav, you seem to be in charge here.

Heck, some of us could have done Taboose tomorrow and other areas..

How many are actually looking?

[BrianF]

here is a photo from the SEKI new release from the search area, gives you an idea of what the searchers and Larry are up against

[gdurkee]

As noted, I have no direct involvement here but, as much as all experienced and concerned people want to get out there and help, I'll just note that in many ways it makes a search more difficult. At the moment, there's a huge area with snow and no tracks. This is extremely helpful because any human tracks that do show up would be his or someone who's hiking through the area and could provide critical information. I have been told that the snow makes travel extremely difficult -- too deep to walk in, too thin to ski or snow shoe.

Having non-SAR teams out there means no coordination; no communication; briefing and assignments etc. Plus, of course, it adds human tracks in unplanned places, potentially confusing SAR planning. It does really mess a search up. Plus, of course, you've got incredibly gnarly conditions and a huge danger of getting people out there not skilled or equipped (excepting most all the people here...). But that increases the odds the SAR agency will start having problems with taking care of well-intentioned searchers, taking away resources from the actual search... .

So, as much as everyone wants to help -- and feels helpless not doing so -- unless you're associated with a recognized MRA SAR team, actually being in the field would likely cause more confusion and distraction than helping.

To the extend that I can, I'll try to update people on any needs (though I'm not really in direct contact with anyone).

Many thanks,

George

PS: if I can get ahold of a SAR map, and permission, I'll post it.

[tomcat_rc]

This was Larry during our Topix group hike in 2007