Your thoughts on Summer 2010 Sierra water?

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gdurkee
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Re: Your thoughts on Summer 2010 Sierra water?

Post by gdurkee »

That is possible, though I'd put it at least 10 days behind last year, at least. I think early PCT hikers are going to have a major thrash when they come through in 2 weeks or so. I'm not sure where the PCT site is getting their data, but here's real time from DWR:

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/quer ... an=12hours" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Today it's showing 51" of snow. The good news is that it is melting, though it's darned cold out there.

Here's all the sensors. Only some have the ability to show snow depth. Many just show water content but you can calibrate by using stations that do show depth for similar water content.

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/snow/current/snow/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
When you look at a station's graph, go to "real time" data.

g.
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kpeter
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Re: Your thoughts on Summer 2010 Sierra water?

Post by kpeter »

Yes, I just checked again and the PCT "Postholer" site is still displaying data from April 15. Odd. But what this means is that Charlotte Lake has gone from 85' to 51" in about 6 weeks that had much cooler weather than normal and even additional snowfall.

A few really warm weeks would take care of the 51". Unfortunately, we had a front page story yesterday that May had broken records for being a cool month and that the pattern would probably extend into June. If it takes us six weeks to lose another 34" then we will indeed be way behind. That gauge shows that there have been some days recently when Charlotte did not get about freezing the whole day. Today it looks like it will be in the high 30s for a couple of hours. Not encouraging.
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Re: Your thoughts on Summer 2010 Sierra water?

Post by rlown »

this might be a pretty simple philosophy: if there is big snow late into the "season", plan for snow, if there was big snow, plan that stream crossings will be high in July, and don't worry about water in the late season as it, and the bugs, will be everywhere.

I've done early snow, and i bring gaiters (or skiis) for those trips. Mid season is about getting your feet dry after crossings and keeping the bugs off you (that goes pretty much the whole time this year).

Late season is nice, except this year, there'll still be bugs i think.

For me, it's not so much melt rate but what is there when i plan to go, and then, plan accordingly.
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Re: Your thoughts on Summer 2010 Sierra water?

Post by DoyleWDonehoo »

Weekend before last I did the dayhike up to the top of Chilnualna Falls (Yosemite) and back and driving the roads checking conditions. A year ago to date I did a backpack beyond Hetch-Hetchy and it was dry all the way (except between Vernon and TilTill Valley), but I do not think that is the case this year at the same time. I would estimate that the conditions are at least a month or more behind last year. There was snow below 6000 feet and Crane Flat was about 90% covered. More, I think there will be deep north slope drifts and shaded spots well into August. The South Sierra will not be so bad, but the streams will be full late. PCTers will be having a serious hard time with stream crossings like at Middle Fork Kings and in Yosemite when the trail strays far from the Crest (Rancheria Creek). A few heat waves could change things, but that would just meant the stream crossings will be harder. Flowers all year this year!
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kpeter
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Re: Your thoughts on Summer 2010 Sierra water?

Post by kpeter »

I've been figuring out how to use the plot program at the DWR and here is what I found.

Today the water content in the snowpack at Charlotte lake is 20".

Last year the same 20" level was reached on May 7. That puts us 22 days behind that dry year.

Last year the remaining 20" melted in an additional 16 days--by May 23. If the same happened this year, that would be a complete melt at Charlotte by about June 15. That would depend on it being warm in June, and it does seem as if the jetstream has finally shifted north and that we might be coming back into a traditional weather pattern.

If Charlotte is a good indicator for much of the Sierras, then I would expect June 15-July 21 to be prime mosquito/wildflower/high water season in the 10,000+ zones.

A lot of "what ifs," take it for what it's worth.
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Re: Your thoughts on Summer 2010 Sierra water?

Post by DoyleWDonehoo »

Here is a little hope:
http://sierrafire.cr.usgs.gov/camHist/v ... Frame=true" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Just a few weeks ago the snow was above the tops of the fence posts, and this is ~8000 feet.
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TehipiteTom
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Re: Your thoughts on Summer 2010 Sierra water?

Post by TehipiteTom »

I was lucky enough to get a few shots from the plane returning from Boston this morning; they give some idea of where we are with snowpack.

North/west of Tioga Pass:
Image

And I don't think I need to identify this one:
Image
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kpeter
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Re: Your thoughts on Summer 2010 Sierra water?

Post by kpeter »

A lot of the gauges are not working properly, and many are hand gathered once a month, some don't show actual snow depth. I'm frustrated that the Agnew Pass gauge and the Paradise Meadow gauges are not working--it would give good data in heavy backpacking zones. But here is a sampling of some of the working gauges with daily satellite readings.

Charlotte Lake (10,400). Snow depth down to 27". It was at its peak of 67" on May 11. At this rate of melting, it should be clear at the gauge in another ten days. It reached 0 on May 23, 2009, so this would put it 3-4 weeks behind last year's melt.

Bishop Pass (11,200) is showing 51" of snow, down from 80+". At higher elevation, it clearly is not melting out as fast as Charlotte. It has gone from 65" to 51" in two weeks. The problem has been maximum air temperatures that have not been that high, but that seems to have changed the last few days. June 3rd it reaches 63 degrees and it has been consistently getting above 50 degrees for a week, so hopefully the higher elevations will start melting.

Kibbie Ridge (6700) has been essentially clear of snow since June 1.

Ostrander lake (8200) 37" of snow.

Slide Canyon (9200) 47" of snow.
\
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Re: Your thoughts on Summer 2010 Sierra water?

Post by markskor »

Today’s YNP web page shows;
"THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE MERCED RIVER AT POHONO BRIDGE.* AT 7:00 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.3 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST TO RECEDE TO NEAR 9.0 FT THIS EVENING THEN EXPECTED TO
RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE OF 10.0 FT TONIGHT THEN FORECAST TO RISE TO
NEAR 10.0 FT EARLY TOMORROW THEN FORECAST TO FLUCTUATE NEAR 10.0
FT THRU TOMORROW MORNING.
* FLOOD STAGE 10.0 FT
* MONITOR STAGE MSG FT,
* IMPACT...NEAR 10.5 FEET, WATER TOPS THE SWINGING BRIDGE DOWNSTREAM
FROM CHAPEL MEADOW. OVERFLOW FROM WOSKI POND FLOODS ACCESS
ROAD(NORTHSIDE DRIVE) LEADING OUT OF THE WEST ENTRANCE OF THE PARK.
* IMPACT...NEAR 10.0 FEET, WESTERN PORTION OF NORTH PINES
CAMPGROUND...LOCATED AT THE EAST END OF YOSEMITE VALLEY BETWEEN THE
CONFLUENCE OF THE MERCED RIVER AND TENAYA CREEK...BEGINS TO FLOOD.
WATER RISES TO THE BASE OF THE SWINGING BRIDGE DOWNSTREAM FROM
CHAPEL MEADOW.
Mountainman who swims with trout
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Re: Your thoughts on Summer 2010 Sierra water?

Post by fedak »

> Due to the heavy snow this year, I would guess more than average.

This was actually an average snow year.
The snow was just later in the season than usual.
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