Storm door shutting

Questions and reports related to Sierra Nevada current and forecast conditions, as well as general precautions and safety information. Trail conditions, fire/smoke reports, mosquito reports, weather and snow conditions, stream crossing information, and more.
User avatar
Jimr
Forums Moderator
Forums Moderator
Posts: 1888
Joined: Fri Jul 31, 2009 2:14 pm
Experience: Level 4 Explorer
Location: Redondo Beach

Re: Storm door shutting

Post by Jimr » Tue Jan 29, 2019 5:48 pm

At least for the next week. Storm door swingin'


“Posterity! You will never know, how much it cost the present generation, to preserve your Freedom! I hope you will make a good use of it. If you do not, I shall repent in Heaven, that I ever took half the pains to preserve it.”

-John Adams






User avatar
rightstar76
Topix Expert
Posts: 737
Joined: Mon Jun 26, 2006 3:22 pm
Experience: N/A

Re: Storm door shutting

Post by rightstar76 » Fri Feb 01, 2019 7:22 pm

Storm door is opening, but too early to celebrate:

Per CPC, through the middle of Februrary, cold and wet, followed by cold and dry for the rest of the month. So the snowpack holds.

But the longterm for March and April, doesn't look as good: warm with with an equal chance of above, normal, or below precipation from Tahoe southward. Below average precipitation for Tahoe northward.

If the end of winter and early spring is warm and there is alot of rain, the snowpack could rapidly melt:
Another concern, Bales says, is runoff that comes too early, triggered by warmer temperatures and rains over the mountains during winter months. Runoff occurring before April has the potential to cause flooding downstream.
https://www.kqed.org/science/1936797/wh ... a-snowpack

:(

User avatar
rightstar76
Topix Expert
Posts: 737
Joined: Mon Jun 26, 2006 3:22 pm
Experience: N/A

Re: Storm door shutting

Post by rightstar76 » Fri Feb 08, 2019 3:39 pm

There's been talk of a massive atmospheric river the past few days. But nobody is very confident about it happening. The 8-14 day shows cold and wet. Also, the 3-4 Week discussion states the 8-14 day as high confidence which equates to lower chances of an atmospheric river. However, going forward, it states it has no confidence either way for West Coast, leaving it equal chances for both precipitation and temperature. How confusing. I will look at Daniel Swain's blog this weekend for more discussion on this issue. One thing is for sure, the storm door is staying open for the next couple of weeks. Hopefully, it will stay cold too.

User avatar
rightstar76
Topix Expert
Posts: 737
Joined: Mon Jun 26, 2006 3:22 pm
Experience: N/A

Re: Storm door shutting

Post by rightstar76 » Sun Feb 10, 2019 6:34 am

Looks like Wednesday into Thursday going to be atmospheric river. How strong and big still up in the air. Could melt lots of snow. Bad for Kern Plateau and SoCal mountains if too warm. For Friday Saturday NWS forecast discussions indicate less chance of second atmospheric river possibly even dry. 🎢

User avatar
paul
Topix Expert
Posts: 574
Joined: Thu Mar 15, 2007 3:35 pm
Experience: N/A

Re: Storm door shutting

Post by paul » Sun Feb 10, 2019 10:54 am

I like this guy's forecasts, he always explains his reasoning very clearly and is focused just on the Tahoe area mountains.
https://opensnow.com/dailysnow/tahoe

Combine his and Howard Schecter's stuff with the NWS forecast discussion and you get about the best picture you can assemble.

User avatar
TahoeJeff
Topix Expert
Posts: 907
Joined: Thu Mar 08, 2007 11:03 am
Experience: N/A
Location: South Lake Tahoe

Re: Storm door shutting

Post by TahoeJeff » Sun Feb 10, 2019 11:26 am

paul wrote:
Sun Feb 10, 2019 10:54 am
I like this guy's forecasts, he always explains his reasoning very clearly and is focused just on the Tahoe area mountains.
https://opensnow.com/dailysnow/tahoe
Yep, he is good.
“A society that puts equality before freedom will get neither. A society that puts freedom before equality will get a high degree of both.”

Milton Friedman

User avatar
justm
Topix Regular
Posts: 315
Joined: Wed May 06, 2009 9:16 am
Experience: N/A

Re: Storm door shutting

Post by justm » Sun Feb 10, 2019 7:19 pm

Ha ha, so true. I'm so happy. I was worried about a dry winter, but not anymore. Great snow amounts up and down the Sierras. Now it's just a matter of how long we have to wait in the spring to get out and backpack !!!

User avatar
freestone
Topix Expert
Posts: 770
Joined: Fri Nov 11, 2005 9:42 pm
Experience: Level 1 Hiker
Location: Santa Barbara
Contact:

Re: Storm door shutting

Post by freestone » Wed Feb 13, 2019 11:58 am

Impressive fetch of moisture streaming into North America from below Hawaii and beyond.

Image
Fram...

Post Reply

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: mklassen and 1 guest