Incoming storm: Am I reading this right?!?

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rlown
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Re: Incoming storm: Am I reading this right?!?

Post by rlown »

50 mph winds in the sac valley.. It was a fun night. Lots of Eucalyptus down. Power out for 5 hours, but I'm on 12v and comfortable.
Another burn pile.. sigh.
Putting the sprayer mount together in the trailer and will mount it when the wind dies.. Weed season is coming.
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Re: Incoming storm: Am I reading this right?!?

Post by Lumbergh21 »

I live at the north end of the valley at 600' elevation where we don't normally get more than a few inches of snow. Now, in the last 3 winters, we've had two of the biggest snow storms in my 40+ years of living here. Luckily, no wind last night, and we had even more wet snow in 2019 that brought down a lot of trees damaging homes and taking out power lines. So, fewer trees to fall across power lines this year. Instead of being without power for 5 days it was only out for 3 hours at my house. In 2019 it looked like practically every above ground power line was down. That year, over the space of just over 1/2 mile, there were 21 downed power poles on the street east of my house. I hope this isn't going to be a new norm around here.
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Wandering Daisy
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Re: Incoming storm: Am I reading this right?!?

Post by Wandering Daisy »

From the web cams, Sugar Bowl is open (probably not the higher runs) but Mammoth appears closed. Sugar Bowl snow measurement stick shows 14 inches new snow now- not as much as they forecast. I-80 is a big mess, not plowed. My son-in-law is up there with one of the boys staying in their home in Soda Springs. They went up several days ago, skied yesterday and probably today after on-line school. I also see that 395 is closed near Bridgeport. Very windy here in Sacramento too but no power out at my house. Walked the dog 3 miles at noon and less down tree branches than I thought there would be. Supposed to get rainy again late this afternoon. Much more snow in the mountains the next 24 hours.
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c9h13no3
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Re: Incoming storm: Am I reading this right?!?

Post by c9h13no3 »

Wandering Daisy wrote: Wed Jan 27, 2021 2:19 pm From the web cams, Sugar Bowl is open (probably not the higher runs) but Mammoth appears closed.
Lower lifts at Mammoth are open, waist deep pow skiing. If you weren’t there yesterday, your next window is Fri afternoon.
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Re: Incoming storm: Am I reading this right?!?

Post by Shawn »

Seems like a mess all over California. So nice to see the snow levels in the Sierra.

Here's a nice website for weather, primarily for wind but you can add layers to show temp, snow levels, etc.
https://www.windy.com
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Re: Incoming storm: Am I reading this right?!?

Post by SSSdave »

Continuing to watch this unusual storm on a list of weather sites. Indeed as forecast, about noon the stalled frontal band along the coast that had reached south to northern San Luis Obispo and Monterey counties, began retrograding back north and west so now the main fire hose is aiming at San Jose for a second time with a large yellow red blob on radar imminent. Some remote sites in the Santa Lucias where it stalled are over 7 inches of precip.
Sat-1-27-21-1520.jpg
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Harlen
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Re: Incoming storm: Am I reading this right?!?

Post by Harlen »

Wandering Daisy wrote:
Incoming storm: Am I reading this right?!?
Apparently, you are Daisy. I have never seen such an Avalanche Advisory, with the terms "Certain" under Likelihood, and "Historic" under Size of avalanche on three different avalanche types! This huge snowfall with accompanying strong winds magnifies the danger ten-fold.

ADVISORY DISCUSSION [This comes from the wonderful Eastern Sierra Avalanche Center, Daily Advisories, this from 1/28.]
These are Extreme Conditions; we strongly recommend avoiding all avalanche terrain today.

A few hardy souls tried to go out for some exploratory tours into non-avalanche terrain yesterday and found conditions so deep that travel both up and downhill was virtually impossible. Any slope with a bit of steepness was sensitive and showing signs of instability. Similar conditions will be present today with now even greater depths of new snow.

The risk of deep snow immersion (potentially suffocating if taking a fall or dive into this deep of snow) is a real concern, including for small children and pets :( falling into depths they may have a very hard time getting out of. Be careful working around buildings where Roof-Avalanches and shedding ice can be a real threat. Please take note of what is above you and try to avoid travelling under roof lines where a snow slide could bury you- even in town!

Trying to get out in the midst of this event is just not worth the Risk vs Reward. The rapid loading of tons of new snow, transporting winds and massive amount of weight added to our weak snowpack are all major red flags. There will be plenty of time to ride once this subsides.
In the previous discussion/warning pages there were warnings I have yet to see:(I'll try to include them below.)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________

AVALANCHE ADVISORY PUBLISHED ON JANUARY 28, 2021 @ 6:48THIS ADVISORY IS VALID FOR 24 HOURS
Issued by Chris Engelhardt - Eastern Sierra Avalanche Center

EXTREME AVALANCHE DANGER exists today as a powerful winter storm impacts the Eastern Sierra. Heavy accumulations of new snow and loading southerly winds will build Slabs on All Aspects. Avoid all Avalanche terrain as natural and human triggered avalanches are certain.

6. Extreme [danger]
Above Treeline

6. Extreme
Near Treeline

6. Extreme
Below Treeline


AVALANCHE PROBLEM #1: WIND SLAB


ASPECT/ELEVATION [The Center provides an image of all aspects and elevations, and the risk was high on pretty much all aspects except South-South-west]


LIKELIHOOD-- Certain


SIZE-- Historic, Large
Strong to moderate southerly winds optimal for loading combined with massive amounts of new snowfall (4-6ft+) will be building reactive and deep wind slabs on virtually all aspects and elevations. W-N-E-SE will be aspects of primary concern with guaranteed wind slab development adjacent to ridgeline and terrain features conducive to capturing wind transported snow such as cliff bands, convex rollovers and gullies. Avalanches of all sizes and scope are nearly certain today. Large to very large avalanches have the potential to run into lower terrain where you may normally think you are safe. Avoid all avalanche terrain!
AVALANCHE PROBLEM #2: STORM SLAB


ASPECT/ELEVATION -- [All aspects]


LIKELIHOOD-- Certain


SIZE-- Historic, Large
Incredible amounts of new snow (4-6ft and likely more in some areas) fell Wednesday; snowfall was unrelenting through last night and will continue today. Fresh, sensitive, and unstable storm slabs on All Aspects at All Elevations are guaranteed to be present. In the midst of a storm of this magnitude avalanche conditions will be extremely dangerous as new snow will be looking to adjust its balance in relation to gravity and slope. This means avalanches in all forms, from soft sensitive slabs on virtually any slope with a bit of steepness, to loose dry point releases in very steep terrain.
AVALANCHE PROBLEM #3: PERSISTENT SLAB


ASPECT/ELEVATION -- [Northwest to Southeast]


LIKELIHOOD-- Certain (Now downgraded to "Very Likely.")


SIZE-- Historic , Large
This hefty storm is rapidly loading the shallow and loose-grained snowpack from November and December with a significant amount of weight. W-SE aspects all harbor weak structure from our prolonged drought through the first half of the winter. The rapid loading and large amount of weight in the new snow will likely cause collapse and failure in these old weaker layers. Avalanches originating from fresh unstable wind/storm slab and loose dry will add to the pressure on these weak persistent layers and could cause avalanches to “step down” into the older snowpack causing much bigger and destructive avalanches.
Last edited by Harlen on Thu Jan 28, 2021 10:38 am, edited 5 times in total.
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rlown
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Re: Incoming storm: Am I reading this right?!?

Post by rlown »

My weather dog Simba says the winds have died down. Ears not blowing around. Still raining, as the fur is wet and no snow on his back so mild temps.

The little lake outside my camper is back. Actually a good sign.
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Re: Incoming storm: Am I reading this right?!?

Post by dave54 »

Almanor area.

About 3.5 foot pack in my yard now. Light and fluffy, snowblower goes right through it.

No problem so far. Power stayed on.
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