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Re: Overdue Hiker - Do You Have Any Info?

Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 4:05 pm
by thegib
Let all of us backcountry users be reminded how valuable it is, to ourselves, to SAR, to loved ones, to leave as detailed an itinerary as possible. Especially when solo, especially when pushing the season. I sometimes change my plans as I drive up from the bay area, this thread reminds me I should leave a visible note in my car as to what my latest thoughts/plans are.

Re: Overdue Hiker - Do You Have Any Info?

Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 4:08 pm
by DAVELA
DoyleWDonehoo wrote:I would like to thing that Larry, being one of us and a regular contributor, is way too wile and experienced not to deal with whatever situation he is in, and is even now close to rescue or hunkered down in his tent, just waiting for the chance to make his presence known. I think he knows what to do. :nod:
We are all resourceful and quentinc is adept.I am sure he is hunkered down in tent and making his way out....

Optimistic.

Re: Overdue Hiker - Do You Have Any Info?

Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 4:34 pm
by maverick
As time passes I wonder now out loud whether he may have gone down the Muro Blanco since Taboose and Pinchot would have been out of the question with the winds forecasted to be at 40 mph and a windchill of -8 or lower at higher elevations on Tue (know because I was thinking of go up). Going down to lower elevation towards Paradise in the banks of the Kings River could be done this year with the lower water levels and dry summer we had, but how much snow was there already on the ground from the previous weeks storm.
Freestone you can shed some light on this since you were in this area a couple of days before Larry.
Was there a lot of snow near the start of the Muro Blanco and what were the water levels like in the river? I have made it past Kid Creek without having to leave the banks of the river and only leaving it a few times before getting to Paradise decades ago in very low water year similar to this one.
When talking to Claus he said they have not found any footprints which the snow storm may have covered, but may have also been since he had already started down
the Muro Blanco, and since no tent has been found yet it may be plausible.
Injury could have forced him to lower elevation, though experience would have made him stay within the zone he indicated, but sometimes desperation causes us to make decisions we normally would not make.

Re: Overdue Hiker - Do You Have Any Info?

Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 4:38 pm
by RoguePhotonic
The water levels in the Muro Blanco have to be at a trickle. This photo was taken on July 17th and look how low it was way back then!

Image

Re: Overdue Hiker - Do You Have Any Info?

Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 4:47 pm
by rlown
speculation is pointless until they find some sort of sign. The best source at this point is where Seki SAR looked or didn't look and we still don't have that data here.

Re: Overdue Hiker - Do You Have Any Info?

Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 5:08 pm
by vandman
Hang in there! Stay dry!

Re: Overdue Hiker - Do You Have Any Info?

Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 5:17 pm
by SSSdave
maverick wrote:As time passes I wonder now out loud whether he may have gone down
the Muro Blanco since Taboose and Pinchot would have been out of the question
with the winds forecasted to be at 40 mph and a windchill of -8 or lower at higher
elevations on Tue (know because I was thinking of go up). Going down to lower
elevation towards Paradise in the banks of the Kings River could be done this year
with the lower water levels and dry summer we had, but how much snow was
there already on the ground from the previous weeks storm...
The scenario appears to be at dawn Monday snow began to fall. For some reason he may have not chose to escape and instead hunkered down. One needs to be storm skier to understand how unpleasant ridgelines can be during storm. What makes Taboose so uniquely bad is the pass is not abrupt but rather gradual miles long. Thus even during early morning Monday it could have been blowing pretty hard and difficult to see more than a few hundred feet. Just think of how bad visibility is atop Emigrant Chair at Squaw or Cornice at Kirkwood during even minor storms. Since I suspect his clothing was inadequate, he may have turned around simply because it was so cold, getting colder, and he could not see where he was going. And it may have been his feet got wet and began to freeze which is really scary.

So yeah down into the canyon. If his feet were damaged by the cold, even after the sun came out, going back up over Taboose through a foot or two of fresh new snow may have been quickly painful. So yeah down MB which is not a place I have visited but have read it is rather treeless but brushy in places. Gets that way because as the topo shows it is has steep smooth glaciated canyon walls that propogate avalanches though the latter would likely not be an issue a couple days later. However he'd need to get way down to below 6k to leave the snow and that is a long ways with inadequate footwear. So yeah could be hunkered down in MB with foot issues but I would expect the helicopters have already surveyed that and not seen tracks nor seen any sign of fires which is a bad sign. Hang in there partner!

Re: Overdue Hiker - Do You Have Any Info?

Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 5:22 pm
by SandStorm
Unfortunately I have no info, but I'm sure as hell pulling for you, Larry.

Come home safe and sound, brother.

Re: Overdue Hiker - Do You Have Any Info?

Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 5:59 pm
by BrianF
Like everyone else here I am hoping for the best and sending out good wishes to Larry and his friends and family. I think everyone here can so easily put ourselves in his shoes, especially those of us who regularly hike solo. I don't know Larry personally, but from reading his many posts, I know he has plenty of experience - a huge plus
I am also thankful for and concerned for the SAR personnel and hope they are all being safe. Having spent a few years on a SAR team, I know how desperately they want to find him and have a good outcome, and how that can lead to taking risks. I am hoping with the rest of you that he gets found soon or shows up tattered and worn at Cedar Grove.

Re: Overdue Hiker - Do You Have Any Info?

Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 7:14 pm
by kpeter
I've reread over the last 8 pages and have tried to sort out the chronology of what Larry would really have known about the weather. He did respond to SSSDave's weather warning on Wednesday night the 17th. At that time it was expected that the storm would hit on Wednesday morning the 24th. To this news he responded:

"But not until Wednesday. I'm hoping for one more High Sierra trip this weekend."
viewtopic.php?f=34&t=8510" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

He was aware a storm was coming, and was planning to get in and out before the storm hit.

I followed the NOAA link that SSSDave posted in his prescient weather warning post, and it took me to the Reno NOAA forecast. I cannot find a similar site where one can check the historic updates for a station further south. IF the weather updates happened at the same time as they did for Reno, then there is some troubling news about what Larry could have known. However, it may be that there were different forecasts available apart from NOAA. In any case, here is the problem:

The Reno NOAA forecast on Friday 3:22 am the 19th, the day he went in, was:
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL BE OUR FIRST CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION ACROSS NE CALIFORNIA AND NW NEVADA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEMS FOR NEXT WEEK.

That does not sound too threatening. That, unfortunately, was the last weather report issued before Larry started up the trailhead. The next NOAA update out of Reno was at 3:25PM, after his departure. It read:

FIRST WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON IS SET TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN CA/NV EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IN THE SIERRA FROM TAHOE NORTHWARD TO LASSEN COUNTY DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. ... SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT AROUND 7000-6500 FEET EARLY MONDAY MORNING, THEN COME DOWN QUICKLY TO 6000 FEET MONDAY NIGHT...AS LOW AS 4500 IN LASSEN COUNTY. SNOW AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE FOOT OF NEW SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SIERRA CREST FROM TAHOE NORTHWARD.

If Larry did not check the weather report Friday morning on his way to the trailhead, he would have expected the storm to hit two full days after he was out of the backcountry. If he checked it Friday morning on the way to the trailhead, he would have known that there was a "chance" of precipitation. But only 4 1/2 hours after he met Freestone the weather report turned very ugly, and he would have had no way of knowing.

Our hope must be that he took precautions and had packed some cold weather gear "just in case" the storm hit two days earlier than originally predicted.