Re: Overdue Hiker - Do You Have Any Info?
Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 9:17 am
Some analysis is worthwhile at this point.
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This is what Claus said, "He went in on the Taboose Pass trail. His tentative itinerary was to head up, generally, along the Muir trail toward Mather Pass and possibly climb Split Mt. Then he planned to head back toward Pinchot Pass and explore some of the creeks in that area."
and freestone, "I ran into Larry last Friday at approximately 10:30 AM on the Taboose trail, about two miles from the trailhead. We spoke briefly and he mentioned that he was going to explore the area around Pinchot area, but made no mention of Split Mountain. He said he only had four days, but looked well equiped..."
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I expected to read he stumbled out the last couple days after waiting for at least some of the snows to melt off or following the South Fork of the Kings River down to Roads End. That did not happen. So three unfortunate primary possibilities remain.
1) He was injured bagging a peak before the storm hit.
2) He was not injured climbing but got into trouble due to inadequate gear during the storm.
3) He is not injured but is stuck in a steep location where snows have made escape too dangerous to attempt and is hoping to see a helicopter.
If he was just going to be out 4 days, even if he did not expect a storm, I doubt he would have gone into Lakes Basin, Dumbell Lakes Basin, Amphitheatre Lakes Basin, north over Mather Pass, or south over Pinchot Pass especially beyond Cedric Wright. Oh he had enough time to reach those areas but would only have done so if he had another day to actually peakbag something significant that would have been a real stretch on a 4 day trip. And the comments above support that. No his intent was more likely within striking range of Taboose.
Freestone mentioned he was well equipped. However the usual mindset of many summer peakbaggers making multi k approaches and ascents is to go light and outside of sleeping in a bag at night, count on activity to keep oneself warm. So I'd suspect that did not include winter foul weather gear. He heard a storm was coming sometime after the weekend but for whatever reason may have gambled it could not come sooner. If he was ok, and in Upper Basin, the Marjorie area, or Bench, the obvious thing to do once the snow began would have been to escape over Taboose or drop down in the canyon where the forest is more dense and there would be areas below dense trees with little snow or wind and a lot of wood to make fires with. He may instead got set up in one of the headwater basins and benches and after the storm came earlier than he expected, just stayed there. The storm hit the south SF Bay Area about midnight Sunday then that area of the Sierra snow began falling at sunrise. I know that to be the situation because it shows that on the nearby Bishop Pass CDEC site:
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/quer ... an=12hours" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
That also shows over a foot of snow fell at Bishop Pass by sunset Monday, then slacked off, and did not melt off at all during following days. One reason playing around in these above 10k areas at this time of year when storms are possible is rather dangerous. Lower down one can get away with expecting some melt off but not up high.
So if snow started then and he was in escape range, of Taboose at sunrise, I'd find it difficult to imagine someone with his experience would choose not to start rambling towards the pass as soon as dawn allowed even if wind was high and visibility was unpleasant. It basically blows one eastward which at ones back actually makes travel faster. Just a HUGE danger of being caught up there once snow depths piled up. So that tends to make 1) more likely. But maybe his clothing was too light and after heading towards the pass, after a half hour decided he was becoming way too cold so bailed down into the canyon. But then why hasn't he appeared since? I'd expect by this time that helicopters have been looking for tracks which are of course highly noticeable.
I've been a skiing enthusiast for three decades and am especially fond of powder skiing during storms at resorts. When one is riding up on lifts with winds 40mph with temps 20F degrees, one readily considers how easily a person could freeze to death in short order if a lift shut down. Or if one got stuck in some tree well. Even with heavy duty ski clothing, if one is not moving, cold has a horrible way of taking over. Something mountaineers learn very quickly.
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This is what Claus said, "He went in on the Taboose Pass trail. His tentative itinerary was to head up, generally, along the Muir trail toward Mather Pass and possibly climb Split Mt. Then he planned to head back toward Pinchot Pass and explore some of the creeks in that area."
and freestone, "I ran into Larry last Friday at approximately 10:30 AM on the Taboose trail, about two miles from the trailhead. We spoke briefly and he mentioned that he was going to explore the area around Pinchot area, but made no mention of Split Mountain. He said he only had four days, but looked well equiped..."
-------------------------
I expected to read he stumbled out the last couple days after waiting for at least some of the snows to melt off or following the South Fork of the Kings River down to Roads End. That did not happen. So three unfortunate primary possibilities remain.
1) He was injured bagging a peak before the storm hit.
2) He was not injured climbing but got into trouble due to inadequate gear during the storm.
3) He is not injured but is stuck in a steep location where snows have made escape too dangerous to attempt and is hoping to see a helicopter.
If he was just going to be out 4 days, even if he did not expect a storm, I doubt he would have gone into Lakes Basin, Dumbell Lakes Basin, Amphitheatre Lakes Basin, north over Mather Pass, or south over Pinchot Pass especially beyond Cedric Wright. Oh he had enough time to reach those areas but would only have done so if he had another day to actually peakbag something significant that would have been a real stretch on a 4 day trip. And the comments above support that. No his intent was more likely within striking range of Taboose.
Freestone mentioned he was well equipped. However the usual mindset of many summer peakbaggers making multi k approaches and ascents is to go light and outside of sleeping in a bag at night, count on activity to keep oneself warm. So I'd suspect that did not include winter foul weather gear. He heard a storm was coming sometime after the weekend but for whatever reason may have gambled it could not come sooner. If he was ok, and in Upper Basin, the Marjorie area, or Bench, the obvious thing to do once the snow began would have been to escape over Taboose or drop down in the canyon where the forest is more dense and there would be areas below dense trees with little snow or wind and a lot of wood to make fires with. He may instead got set up in one of the headwater basins and benches and after the storm came earlier than he expected, just stayed there. The storm hit the south SF Bay Area about midnight Sunday then that area of the Sierra snow began falling at sunrise. I know that to be the situation because it shows that on the nearby Bishop Pass CDEC site:
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/quer ... an=12hours" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
That also shows over a foot of snow fell at Bishop Pass by sunset Monday, then slacked off, and did not melt off at all during following days. One reason playing around in these above 10k areas at this time of year when storms are possible is rather dangerous. Lower down one can get away with expecting some melt off but not up high.
So if snow started then and he was in escape range, of Taboose at sunrise, I'd find it difficult to imagine someone with his experience would choose not to start rambling towards the pass as soon as dawn allowed even if wind was high and visibility was unpleasant. It basically blows one eastward which at ones back actually makes travel faster. Just a HUGE danger of being caught up there once snow depths piled up. So that tends to make 1) more likely. But maybe his clothing was too light and after heading towards the pass, after a half hour decided he was becoming way too cold so bailed down into the canyon. But then why hasn't he appeared since? I'd expect by this time that helicopters have been looking for tracks which are of course highly noticeable.
I've been a skiing enthusiast for three decades and am especially fond of powder skiing during storms at resorts. When one is riding up on lifts with winds 40mph with temps 20F degrees, one readily considers how easily a person could freeze to death in short order if a lift shut down. Or if one got stuck in some tree well. Even with heavy duty ski clothing, if one is not moving, cold has a horrible way of taking over. Something mountaineers learn very quickly.