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Re: Overdue Hiker - Do You Have Any Info?

Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 9:17 am
by SSSdave
Some analysis is worthwhile at this point.

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This is what Claus said, "He went in on the Taboose Pass trail. His tentative itinerary was to head up, generally, along the Muir trail toward Mather Pass and possibly climb Split Mt. Then he planned to head back toward Pinchot Pass and explore some of the creeks in that area."

and freestone, "I ran into Larry last Friday at approximately 10:30 AM on the Taboose trail, about two miles from the trailhead. We spoke briefly and he mentioned that he was going to explore the area around Pinchot area, but made no mention of Split Mountain. He said he only had four days, but looked well equiped..."
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I expected to read he stumbled out the last couple days after waiting for at least some of the snows to melt off or following the South Fork of the Kings River down to Roads End. That did not happen. So three unfortunate primary possibilities remain.

1) He was injured bagging a peak before the storm hit.

2) He was not injured climbing but got into trouble due to inadequate gear during the storm.

3) He is not injured but is stuck in a steep location where snows have made escape too dangerous to attempt and is hoping to see a helicopter.

If he was just going to be out 4 days, even if he did not expect a storm, I doubt he would have gone into Lakes Basin, Dumbell Lakes Basin, Amphitheatre Lakes Basin, north over Mather Pass, or south over Pinchot Pass especially beyond Cedric Wright. Oh he had enough time to reach those areas but would only have done so if he had another day to actually peakbag something significant that would have been a real stretch on a 4 day trip. And the comments above support that. No his intent was more likely within striking range of Taboose.

Freestone mentioned he was well equipped. However the usual mindset of many summer peakbaggers making multi k approaches and ascents is to go light and outside of sleeping in a bag at night, count on activity to keep oneself warm. So I'd suspect that did not include winter foul weather gear. He heard a storm was coming sometime after the weekend but for whatever reason may have gambled it could not come sooner. If he was ok, and in Upper Basin, the Marjorie area, or Bench, the obvious thing to do once the snow began would have been to escape over Taboose or drop down in the canyon where the forest is more dense and there would be areas below dense trees with little snow or wind and a lot of wood to make fires with. He may instead got set up in one of the headwater basins and benches and after the storm came earlier than he expected, just stayed there. The storm hit the south SF Bay Area about midnight Sunday then that area of the Sierra snow began falling at sunrise. I know that to be the situation because it shows that on the nearby Bishop Pass CDEC site:

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/quer ... an=12hours" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

That also shows over a foot of snow fell at Bishop Pass by sunset Monday, then slacked off, and did not melt off at all during following days. One reason playing around in these above 10k areas at this time of year when storms are possible is rather dangerous. Lower down one can get away with expecting some melt off but not up high.

So if snow started then and he was in escape range, of Taboose at sunrise, I'd find it difficult to imagine someone with his experience would choose not to start rambling towards the pass as soon as dawn allowed even if wind was high and visibility was unpleasant. It basically blows one eastward which at ones back actually makes travel faster. Just a HUGE danger of being caught up there once snow depths piled up. So that tends to make 1) more likely. But maybe his clothing was too light and after heading towards the pass, after a half hour decided he was becoming way too cold so bailed down into the canyon. But then why hasn't he appeared since? I'd expect by this time that helicopters have been looking for tracks which are of course highly noticeable.

I've been a skiing enthusiast for three decades and am especially fond of powder skiing during storms at resorts. When one is riding up on lifts with winds 40mph with temps 20F degrees, one readily considers how easily a person could freeze to death in short order if a lift shut down. Or if one got stuck in some tree well. Even with heavy duty ski clothing, if one is not moving, cold has a horrible way of taking over. Something mountaineers learn very quickly.

Re: Overdue Hiker - Do You Have Any Info?

Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 9:21 am
by gdurkee
Hi all:

I'm not in any way involved in the search and only heard about it yesterday. I notice that the flyer and information from sequoia kings asks you to call if you saw him or have information. Just to be clear, if anyone was even in the area between the time he started the trip and now -- and I'd say anywhere between Bishop Pass, Taboose, Sawmill to Kearsarge to Cedar Grove, even the Monarch to Simpson -- then I'd call the park to give your exact route; what the conditions were; tracks noticed (or their absence) on the trail etc. Negative information (not seeing him or tracks) is almost as important as positive sightings.

Most of the forum people seem aware of this search, but it would be helpful to call friends and find out anyone in the greater search area. Also, a lot of people this time of year don't get permits so it's often everyone here who has a better idea of who's out there.

Thanks,

George

Overdue Hiker - Do You Have Any Info?

Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 9:22 am
by ironmike
Is it known exactly what time the bad weather hit that region and the snow started accumulating? That would have a definite bearing on his thought process on how to deal with his situation, and if applicable, what escape route to take? The worst scenario of course is that it started in the middle if the night (Sunday night?) and he was faced with a navigational nightmare Monday morning.

...update...
Ahhhh...just saw David's post. Some good analysis there. Looks like Taboose area would indeed be the best search epicenter if he was healthy/uninjured on Monday morning.

Let's hope the story ends up like this: http://www2.timesdispatch.com/news/news ... r-2299507/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Re: Overdue Hiker - Do You Have Any Info?

Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 9:32 am
by orbitor
Posted the search notice on the Mt. San Jacinto Outdoor Recreation board.
http://www.mtsanjacinto.info/index.php" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Keeping Larry and his family in our thoughts.

Re: Overdue Hiker - Do You Have Any Info?

Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 9:35 am
by maverick
Sunny till Tuesday with temps in the mid 50's during the day and mid 20's at night are in the forecast which will help Larry and SAR.

Re: Overdue Hiker - Do You Have Any Info?

Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 10:37 am
by LMBSGV
This is scary stuff, and I can only imagine what Larry's family is going through. Here's hoping for his safe return.
TehipiteTom encapsulates my feelings on this. One thought I had is that if I was in that situation and found the storm prevented an exit over Taboose Pass, I'd head to the Bench Lake Ranger Station. Even if it's closed for the season, it might offer better protection from the elements and it's where a SAR party might go and so find me.

Re: Overdue Hiker - Do You Have Any Info?

Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 11:03 am
by sparky
Do a google search on snow depth sierra nevada...snow survey...you can see exactly what time snow fell. I did it last night, cant link to it right now

Re: Overdue Hiker - Do You Have Any Info?

Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 11:10 am
by gdurkee
Does anyone know if he likely carries a cell phone? There's no chance it can transmit from most of the search area, but I'm looking into methods of finding a signal from one. Seems like a long shot, but some people do carry phones even if they know there's no coverage.

g.

Re: Overdue Hiker - Do You Have Any Info?

Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 11:33 am
by maverick
Gurkee wrote:
Does anyone know if he likely carries a cell phone?
Larry wrote in 2012:
Upper Lake Basin is even nicer, but my camera (actually iPhone, since my point & shoots keep breaking) battery was getting low so I don't have many
photos.
Hope this will help George! :thumbsup:

Re: Overdue Hiker - Do You Have Any Info?

Posted: Fri Oct 26, 2012 11:44 am
by gdurkee
Yes, it does help. I just forwarded that to the Incident Command and the electronic wizards. There's a separate discussion going on in my SAR & GIS group about how to find a cell signal from the phone itself without the tower involved. It seems possible though an incredible long shot at this point. Also, I assume you can turn off the cell capability to save battery??

Many thanks,

g.