Memorial Day Weekend... traditional foul weather?
Posted: Fri May 17, 2013 10:20 am
We are a week away from the Memorial Day Holiday weekend and I just caught these hints of foul weather over that period from NWS discussions. Most of the other NWS regional forecasters are hinting the same. Of course that holiday is often the first one many urban folk head out to the Sierra and this year given the drought and particularly the dry warm recent weeks that has given access to much higher snowfree elevations than usual. So probably not a few are making plans to get up pretty high. So this is a WARNING to watch forecasts that at this point have low confidence.
After weeks of continued dry droughty weather, we finally just had a weak system come through. They are talking about another dryish low pressure trough to move through midweek, and then it is maybe something centered further south over us. For we old folks here in California, Memorial Day weather has historically often been foul and interestingly weather forecasts have often been wrong mostly by underestimating the duration and strength of those events. In the Sierra that often results in snow showers above 6000 feet that as a twentysomething once caught this person by surprise and over the years has like caught many other backpackers and campers that usually flee down to motels.
From NWS Reno forecast discussion today:
FOR WED/THURS, WENT MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH WITH NOT MUCH
AGREEMENT ON THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN THE GFS/EC. THE EC DIGS
THE LOW DEEPER BY THURSDAY AND ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER RENO/TAHOE. THE
GFS KEEPS THE LOW OVER WASHINGTON AND IS NOT AS COOL AS A RESULT.
THE DIFFERENCE IN TEMPS IS ABOUT 15 DEGREES BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS,
BUT AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT DID I KEPT TEMPS JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL.
ENSEMBLES ARE GENERALLY SPLIT BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS SO UNTIL
THEY COME MORE IN LINE, SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE SEEMS PRUDENT FOR
NOW. WALLMANN
After weeks of continued dry droughty weather, we finally just had a weak system come through. They are talking about another dryish low pressure trough to move through midweek, and then it is maybe something centered further south over us. For we old folks here in California, Memorial Day weather has historically often been foul and interestingly weather forecasts have often been wrong mostly by underestimating the duration and strength of those events. In the Sierra that often results in snow showers above 6000 feet that as a twentysomething once caught this person by surprise and over the years has like caught many other backpackers and campers that usually flee down to motels.
From NWS Reno forecast discussion today:
FOR WED/THURS, WENT MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH WITH NOT MUCH
AGREEMENT ON THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN THE GFS/EC. THE EC DIGS
THE LOW DEEPER BY THURSDAY AND ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER RENO/TAHOE. THE
GFS KEEPS THE LOW OVER WASHINGTON AND IS NOT AS COOL AS A RESULT.
THE DIFFERENCE IN TEMPS IS ABOUT 15 DEGREES BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS,
BUT AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT DID I KEPT TEMPS JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL.
ENSEMBLES ARE GENERALLY SPLIT BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS SO UNTIL
THEY COME MORE IN LINE, SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE SEEMS PRUDENT FOR
NOW. WALLMANN