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Memorial Day Weekend... traditional foul weather?

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Memorial Day Weekend... traditional foul weather?

Postby SSSdave » Fri May 17, 2013 9:20 am

We are a week away from the Memorial Day Holiday weekend and I just caught these hints of foul weather over that period from NWS discussions. Most of the other NWS regional forecasters are hinting the same. Of course that holiday is often the first one many urban folk head out to the Sierra and this year given the drought and particularly the dry warm recent weeks that has given access to much higher snowfree elevations than usual. So probably not a few are making plans to get up pretty high. So this is a WARNING to watch forecasts that at this point have low confidence.

After weeks of continued dry droughty weather, we finally just had a weak system come through. They are talking about another dryish low pressure trough to move through midweek, and then it is maybe something centered further south over us. For we old folks here in California, Memorial Day weather has historically often been foul and interestingly weather forecasts have often been wrong mostly by underestimating the duration and strength of those events. In the Sierra that often results in snow showers above 6000 feet that as a twentysomething once caught this person by surprise and over the years has like caught many other backpackers and campers that usually flee down to motels.

From NWS Reno forecast discussion today:

FOR WED/THURS, WENT MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH WITH NOT MUCH
AGREEMENT ON THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN THE GFS/EC. THE EC DIGS
THE LOW DEEPER BY THURSDAY AND ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER RENO/TAHOE. THE
GFS KEEPS THE LOW OVER WASHINGTON AND IS NOT AS COOL AS A RESULT.
THE DIFFERENCE IN TEMPS IS ABOUT 15 DEGREES BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS,
BUT AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT DID I KEPT TEMPS JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL.
ENSEMBLES ARE GENERALLY SPLIT BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS SO UNTIL
THEY COME MORE IN LINE, SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE SEEMS PRUDENT FOR
NOW. WALLMANN
Last edited by SSSdave on Fri May 17, 2013 11:49 am, edited 2 times in total.



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Re: Memorial Day Weekend... traditional foul weather?

Postby TahoeJeff » Fri May 17, 2013 9:28 am

I think it has snowed here like the last 5 years over Memorial day weekend...
Many of us have been so brainwashed over the years — by sheer repetition, rather than by either logic or empirical tests — that statistical disparities are automatically taken to mean discrimination, whether between races, sexes or whatever.
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Re: Memorial Day Weekend... traditional foul weather?

Postby DAVELA » Fri May 17, 2013 10:08 am

it snowed last md in the big pines parking lot!Our water bottles froze almost completely!
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Re: Memorial Day Weekend... traditional foul weather?

Postby freestone » Fri May 17, 2013 11:20 am

This forecast is also picking up on something in Central California, and the Dweebs have talked about a pattern change that will put the kabobs on the heat for awhile.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec1.html
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Re: Memorial Day Weekend... traditional foul weather?

Postby Snowtrout » Fri May 17, 2013 12:32 pm

When I was a kid, we used to always camp up at Quaking Aspen during Memorial Day weekend. The it snowed on us 3 out of 4 years and parents said no more for awhile.

2011 it snowed off and on during Memorial weekend but it didn't chase my dad and I off Huntington lake. We were the only (crazy) ones fishing the lake from a boat that weekend. Caught lots of browns and probably had the biggest trout my dad had ever hooked on for about 15 seconds before it broke his line.

Weather forcasts I have seen for the central Sierras next weekend so far are saying cooler weather wed-sat with possible t-showers on mon. All depends on what the trough does. Either way, I'm off to Spanish lake for 4 days, catching dinner and exploring the area.
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Re: Memorial Day Weekend... traditional foul weather?

Postby richlong8 » Fri May 17, 2013 12:51 pm

Memorial Day always seems to have "cursed weather", though I am sure stats would reveal otherwise. I always try and get at least one weekend trip in before Memorial Day, and the weather always seems to cooperate, and permits are easy to get, and quotas are often not in effect yet.
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Re: Memorial Day Weekend... traditional foul weather?

Postby Tollermom » Fri May 17, 2013 7:43 pm

Rule of thumb for the Tahoe area...NEVER plant before Memorial Day because it will inevitably snow.
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Re: Memorial Day Weekend... traditional foul weather?

Postby jessegooddog » Sat May 18, 2013 7:16 am

Dennis Mattensen's eastern sierra forecast this morning is calling for probable nice weather next weekend.
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Re: Memorial Day Weekend... traditional foul weather?

Postby SSSdave » Sat May 18, 2013 9:32 am

jessegooddog wrote:Dennis Mattensen's eastern sierra forecast this morning is calling for probable nice weather next weekend.


Indeed latest Saturday morning NWS forecasts have backed off a bit too saying precipitation is less likely over the central state and minor over the most northern California areas. However discussions also indicate confidences are still very low with different computer models inconsistent and changing beyond mid week. Wobbling of long range forecasts often occurs, just stay tuned if one is making plans. Additionally consider any locally based longer range forecasts that suggest foul weather are sure to incur the wrath of local mountain businesses and media unless such is an inevitable short range forecast, so there is a historic tendency to err on the side that encourages urban visitors and their checkbooks to make plans to come up.
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Re: Memorial Day Weekend... traditional foul weather?

Postby rlown » Sat May 18, 2013 6:54 pm

SSSdave wrote:Additionally consider any locally based longer range forecasts that suggest foul weather are sure to incur the wrath of local mountain businesses and media unless such is an inevitable short range forecast, so there is a historic tendency to err on the side that encourages urban visitors and their checkbooks to make plans to come up.


Dennis has been around here a LONG time. He doesn't lie. I miss his personal weather posts to this forum.
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