Memorial Day Weekend... traditional foul weather? | High Sierra Topix  

Memorial Day Weekend... traditional foul weather?

Discussion related to Sierra Nevada current and forecast conditions, as well as general precautions and safety information. Trail conditions, fire/smoke reports, mosquito reports, weather and snow conditions, stream crossing information, and more.
User avatar

Memorial Day Weekend... traditional foul weather?

Postby SSSdave » Fri May 17, 2013 10:20 am

We are a week away from the Memorial Day Holiday weekend and I just caught these hints of foul weather over that period from NWS discussions. Most of the other NWS regional forecasters are hinting the same. Of course that holiday is often the first one many urban folk head out to the Sierra and this year given the drought and particularly the dry warm recent weeks that has given access to much higher snowfree elevations than usual. So probably not a few are making plans to get up pretty high. So this is a WARNING to watch forecasts that at this point have low confidence.

After weeks of continued dry droughty weather, we finally just had a weak system come through. They are talking about another dryish low pressure trough to move through midweek, and then it is maybe something centered further south over us. For we old folks here in California, Memorial Day weather has historically often been foul and interestingly weather forecasts have often been wrong mostly by underestimating the duration and strength of those events. In the Sierra that often results in snow showers above 6000 feet that as a twentysomething once caught this person by surprise and over the years has like caught many other backpackers and campers that usually flee down to motels.

From NWS Reno forecast discussion today:

FOR WED/THURS, WENT MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH WITH NOT MUCH
AGREEMENT ON THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN THE GFS/EC. THE EC DIGS
THE LOW DEEPER BY THURSDAY AND ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER RENO/TAHOE. THE
GFS KEEPS THE LOW OVER WASHINGTON AND IS NOT AS COOL AS A RESULT.
THE DIFFERENCE IN TEMPS IS ABOUT 15 DEGREES BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS,
BUT AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT DID I KEPT TEMPS JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL.
ENSEMBLES ARE GENERALLY SPLIT BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS SO UNTIL
THEY COME MORE IN LINE, SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE SEEMS PRUDENT FOR
NOW. WALLMANN
Last edited by SSSdave on Fri May 17, 2013 12:49 pm, edited 2 times in total.



User avatar
SSSdave
Topix Fanatic
 
Posts: 1965
Joined: Thu Nov 17, 2005 11:18 pm
Location: Silicon Valley
Experience: N/A

User avatar

Re: Memorial Day Weekend... traditional foul weather?

Postby TahoeJeff » Fri May 17, 2013 10:28 am

I think it has snowed here like the last 5 years over Memorial day weekend...
User avatar
TahoeJeff
Topix Expert
 
Posts: 619
Joined: Thu Mar 08, 2007 11:03 am
Location: South Lake Tahoe
Experience: N/A

User avatar

Re: Memorial Day Weekend... traditional foul weather?

Postby DAVELA » Fri May 17, 2013 11:08 am

it snowed last md in the big pines parking lot!Our water bottles froze almost completely!
User avatar
DAVELA
Topix Regular
 
Posts: 190
Joined: Mon Dec 07, 2009 12:23 am
Location: los angeles
Experience: N/A

User avatar

Re: Memorial Day Weekend... traditional foul weather?

Postby freestone » Fri May 17, 2013 12:20 pm

This forecast is also picking up on something in Central California, and the Dweebs have talked about a pattern change that will put the kabobs on the heat for awhile.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec1.html
User avatar
freestone
Topix Expert
 
Posts: 571
Joined: Fri Nov 11, 2005 9:42 pm
Location: Santa Barbara
Experience: Level 1 Hiker

User avatar

Re: Memorial Day Weekend... traditional foul weather?

Postby Snowtrout » Fri May 17, 2013 1:32 pm

When I was a kid, we used to always camp up at Quaking Aspen during Memorial Day weekend. The it snowed on us 3 out of 4 years and parents said no more for awhile.

2011 it snowed off and on during Memorial weekend but it didn't chase my dad and I off Huntington lake. We were the only (crazy) ones fishing the lake from a boat that weekend. Caught lots of browns and probably had the biggest trout my dad had ever hooked on for about 15 seconds before it broke his line.

Weather forcasts I have seen for the central Sierras next weekend so far are saying cooler weather wed-sat with possible t-showers on mon. All depends on what the trough does. Either way, I'm off to Spanish lake for 4 days, catching dinner and exploring the area.
User avatar
Snowtrout
Topix Regular
 
Posts: 146
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 10:06 pm
Location: Fresno, CA
Experience: Level 3 Backpacker

User avatar

Re: Memorial Day Weekend... traditional foul weather?

Postby richlong8 » Fri May 17, 2013 1:51 pm

Memorial Day always seems to have "cursed weather", though I am sure stats would reveal otherwise. I always try and get at least one weekend trip in before Memorial Day, and the weather always seems to cooperate, and permits are easy to get, and quotas are often not in effect yet.
User avatar
richlong8
Topix Expert
 
Posts: 687
Joined: Tue Nov 25, 2008 6:02 pm
Experience: N/A

User avatar

Re: Memorial Day Weekend... traditional foul weather?

Postby Tollermom » Fri May 17, 2013 8:43 pm

Rule of thumb for the Tahoe area...NEVER plant before Memorial Day because it will inevitably snow.
User avatar
Tollermom
Topix Acquainted
 
Posts: 71
Joined: Tue May 29, 2012 4:49 pm
Location: Carson City, NV
Experience: N/A

User avatar

Re: Memorial Day Weekend... traditional foul weather?

Postby jessegooddog » Sat May 18, 2013 8:16 am

Dennis Mattensen's eastern sierra forecast this morning is calling for probable nice weather next weekend.
User avatar
jessegooddog
Topix Regular
 
Posts: 240
Joined: Wed Jun 16, 2010 3:39 pm
Experience: N/A

User avatar

Re: Memorial Day Weekend... traditional foul weather?

Postby SSSdave » Sat May 18, 2013 10:32 am

jessegooddog wrote:Dennis Mattensen's eastern sierra forecast this morning is calling for probable nice weather next weekend.


Indeed latest Saturday morning NWS forecasts have backed off a bit too saying precipitation is less likely over the central state and minor over the most northern California areas. However discussions also indicate confidences are still very low with different computer models inconsistent and changing beyond mid week. Wobbling of long range forecasts often occurs, just stay tuned if one is making plans. Additionally consider any locally based longer range forecasts that suggest foul weather are sure to incur the wrath of local mountain businesses and media unless such is an inevitable short range forecast, so there is a historic tendency to err on the side that encourages urban visitors and their checkbooks to make plans to come up.
User avatar
SSSdave
Topix Fanatic
 
Posts: 1965
Joined: Thu Nov 17, 2005 11:18 pm
Location: Silicon Valley
Experience: N/A

User avatar

Re: Memorial Day Weekend... traditional foul weather?

Postby rlown » Sat May 18, 2013 7:54 pm

SSSdave wrote:Additionally consider any locally based longer range forecasts that suggest foul weather are sure to incur the wrath of local mountain businesses and media unless such is an inevitable short range forecast, so there is a historic tendency to err on the side that encourages urban visitors and their checkbooks to make plans to come up.


Dennis has been around here a LONG time. He doesn't lie. I miss his personal weather posts to this forum.
User avatar
rlown
Topix Junkie
 
Posts: 5328
Joined: Thu Oct 25, 2007 5:00 pm
Location: Petaluma and Wilton, CA
Experience: Level 4 Explorer

User avatar

Re: Memorial Day Weekend... traditional foul weather?

Postby LightRanger » Mon May 20, 2013 11:00 pm

TahoeJeff wrote:I think it has snowed here like the last 5 years over Memorial day weekend...


2009 was 80 degrees. I remember because we were playing beirut and beer pong on the beach at Zephyr Cove for a buddy's bachelor party.

Other than that year, I think you're right.
User avatar
LightRanger
Topix Acquainted
 
Posts: 61
Joined: Sun May 20, 2012 5:07 pm
Experience: N/A

User avatar

Re: Memorial Day Weekend... traditional foul weather?

Postby SSSdave » Wed May 22, 2013 9:47 am

Now Wednesday 5/22 NWS forecast for the period over the holiday period is firming up from all regional forecasters. Appears everywhere will remain chilly and often breezy with only areas in northernmost areas of California (Where I am going and I like it!) getting any precipitation with the main action over the northwest. However forecasts for a more potent winter type storm next midweek that may stay several days is likely as the jet stream is expected to move south right on top of us. Thus anyone planning to be out in our high country beyond the holiday ought pay close attention.

David

Reno office:

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MODELS/ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL FOR THE WEEKEND AND ARE
NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BAGGY TROUGH WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE. A GENERAL LIGHT AFTERNOON WEST WIND IS
EXPECTED AS WELL. REGARDING PRECIP, IT LOOKS DRY SAT WITH LITTLE
FORCING, BUT A DECENT SHORT WAVE IS SET TO ARRIVE SUNDAY THAT COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH. THE GFS
BRINGS SHOWERS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE EC, BUT THE GOING
FORECAST APPEARS A REASONABLE BLEND SO MADE NO CHANGES HERE.

WITH THE BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT MON/TUE MADE A FEW CHANGES. BOTH THE
EC/GFS SHOW ANOTHER TROUGH SET TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY. OF NOTE WITH
THAT NEXT TROUGH IS THAT A STRONG JET STREAM, MORE TYPICAL OF
WINTER, WILL SET UP IN THE EAST PACIFIC. AT LEAST THE FIRST WAVE
WOULD BE WEAK FOR LATE TUESDAY IT APPEARS. DID DRY OUT MONDAY SINCE
THE MODELS HAVE A SHORT WAVE RIDGE AND ADDED SOME SHOWERS TO
NORTHEAST CA/NW NV FOR TUESDAY DUE TO THE NEXT TROUGH. WINDS SHOULD
BE LIGHT MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. OF
NOTE IS THAT THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNSETTLED NEXT WEEK
WITH THE STRONGEST WAVE POSSIBLY ARRIVING WED OR THU DEPENDING ON
THE MODEL. WALLMANN
User avatar
SSSdave
Topix Fanatic
 
Posts: 1965
Joined: Thu Nov 17, 2005 11:18 pm
Location: Silicon Valley
Experience: N/A

Next

Return to Conditions Reports and Information



Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot] and 7 guests