Snow and Water levels 2011

Questions and reports related to Sierra Nevada current and forecast conditions, as well as general precautions and safety information. Trail conditions, fire/smoke reports, mosquito reports, weather and snow conditions, stream crossing information, and more.
Post Reply
User avatar
RoguePhotonic
Topix Fanatic
Posts: 1693
Joined: Thu Mar 24, 2011 9:52 am
Experience: Level 4 Explorer
Location: Bakersfield CA
Contact:

Re: Snow and Water levels 2011

Post by RoguePhotonic »

I note that Cedar Grove is already open (anyone been there yet?)
I might be headed there this weekend so i'll let you know what it's like.

Even further South around Kennedy Meadows the snow does not start until about 8000 feet.
User avatar
tim
Topix Expert
Posts: 516
Joined: Thu Feb 12, 2009 2:36 pm
Experience: N/A
Location: Bay Area

Re: Snow and Water levels 2011

Post by tim »

I might be headed there this weekend so i'll let you know what it's like.
We might see you there (again - we met at Iva Bell Hot Springs last August when I was hiking with my twins).
User avatar
RoguePhotonic
Topix Fanatic
Posts: 1693
Joined: Thu Mar 24, 2011 9:52 am
Experience: Level 4 Explorer
Location: Bakersfield CA
Contact:

Re: Snow and Water levels 2011

Post by RoguePhotonic »

Really? You were the one I talked to in the evening with the kids as I scouted out the springs? I didn't know that was you.

If I do go I don't know what my plans will be because the friend I am going with is really out of shape so we will probably just do some easy day hikes.
User avatar
kpeter
Topix Fanatic
Posts: 1449
Joined: Mon Jan 04, 2010 1:11 pm
Experience: Level 3 Backpacker

Re: Snow and Water levels 2011

Post by kpeter »

WD, you were right about the automated gauges. I went back to the drawing boards and just analyzed data from the May 1 manual reads--which tell a somewhat wetter story.

A lot of stations have not reported yet, but I was able to find 7 stations that had reported, that represented a variety of elevations and latitudes, and that had complete data for all our comparison years. (The stations were: Vernon Lake, Tenaya Lake, Dana Meadows, Pioneer Basin, Blackcap Basin, Crabtree Meadow, and Cottonwood Pass. All comparisons across years are May 1 to May 1.)

Overall, the total water content of these 7 stations is very close to 1998 and 2006. 1995 was substantially wetter, while 1993 was drier. 2010 (last year) was much drier.

While it is nice to know that 1998, 2006, and 2011 are almost identical in May 1 snowpack in typical backpacking terrain, it unfortunately doesn't tell us very much about how late the season might be.

Remember that 1998 melted out three weeks later than 2006 with exactly the same May 1 water content. This could still wind up being a normal year if the next six weeks are warm like 2006, or it could be a very late year if the temps are cool like 1998.

Best Odds: If we split the difference between our "sister years" of 2006 and 1998 we will be about 10 days behind an average year, or 4-5 days behind last year.

Factoids:
1. Vernon Lake is wet this year! With 40" it is wetter than in any of the comparison years.

2. Blackcap Basin is drier than any of the comparison years (not counting 2010.)

3. Pioneer Basin is as wet as 1995. That bodes poorly for me, since I had wanted to cross it in late July.
User avatar
oldranger
Topix Addict
Posts: 2861
Joined: Fri Jan 19, 2007 9:18 pm
Experience: N/A
Location: Bend, Oregon

Re: Snow and Water levels 2011

Post by oldranger »

Kpeter

I would bet that the s. aspect of Pioneer basin will result in a fairly rapid melt and you will do OK. If you are going over a col to the n then all bets are off as to conditions on the north side. Now the lake Russ wants to fish is the same elevation a little further n. and in a N. facing cirque. I'm guessing his lake will be snow and ice bound until sometime in early August.

Mike
Mike

Who can't do everything he used to and what he can do takes a hell of a lot longer!
User avatar
rlown
Topix Docent
Posts: 8225
Joined: Thu Oct 25, 2007 5:00 pm
Experience: Level 4 Explorer
Location: Wilton, CA

Re: Snow and Water levels 2011

Post by rlown »

oldranger wrote:Now the lake Russ wants to fish is the same elevation a little further n. and in a N. facing cirque. I'm guessing his lake will be snow and ice bound until sometime in early August.

Mike
My supposed hiking partner doesn't believe that to be the case, so he'll be the one on the end of a flimsy rope, with an ice axe or really heavy saw, cutting a casting channel through that pig. I fear our permit is a week too early.

Russ
User avatar
kpeter
Topix Fanatic
Posts: 1449
Joined: Mon Jan 04, 2010 1:11 pm
Experience: Level 3 Backpacker

Re: Snow and Water levels 2011

Post by kpeter »

"California Department of Water Resources
News for Immediate Release
May 2, 2011
DWR Announces Results of Final Snow Survey of 2010-2011 Season

SACRAMENTO -- Manual and electronic readings today show that California's
near-record snowpack is slowly melting with warming spring weather.
But snowpack water content is still 144 percent of the April 1 full season average.
Today's readings will help hydrologists forecast spring and summer snowmelt runoff
into rivers and reservoirs. The melting snow supplies approximately one-third of the
water used by Californians."


I believe we were at 165% of normal as of April 1 in Sierra North and Sierra Central, so there has indeed been some melting in April. Not a lot of melting but many years there is NO melting in April, so this is significant.
quentinc
Topix Expert
Posts: 890
Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2005 10:28 pm
Experience: N/A
Location: Los Angeles

Re: Snow and Water levels 2011

Post by quentinc »

RoguePhotonic wrote:Even further South around Kennedy Meadows the snow does not start until about 8000 feet.
There wasn't even a trace of snow on the PCT, where it hits 8000 just south of Kennedy "Meadows" (talk about euphemisms -- I know a desert when I see one!). There was snow on the nearby peaks, starting probably a bit over 8,000. Guess I'll be spending lots of time on the Kern Plateau in June, peeking north towards where I'd really like to be.
User avatar
East Side Hiker
Topix Regular
Posts: 391
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2010 8:10 am
Experience: N/A

Re: Snow and Water levels 2011

Post by East Side Hiker »

I have to admit that I don't carefully read every comment. So I am many times ignorent of the line of thought sometimes.

But there is no doubt that there will be a serious run-off problem this year and there will be problems at drainage crossings. If you are really concerned, which we all should be, best to read all the advice people have expressed on this site. They obviously know, and have the experience to share with ya all. If we get a hot spell or a "Pineapple Express" look out. Watch the weather reports. And other situations can be probrelms, such as rock slides. The freezing and thawing of moisture in rocks is going to cause problems.
User avatar
RoguePhotonic
Topix Fanatic
Posts: 1693
Joined: Thu Mar 24, 2011 9:52 am
Experience: Level 4 Explorer
Location: Bakersfield CA
Contact:

Re: Snow and Water levels 2011

Post by RoguePhotonic »

There wasn't even a trace of snow on the PCT, where it hits 8000 just south of Kennedy "Meadows"
Hopefully it was free of trees also. We took about 150 trees off the trail two weeks ago.
Post Reply

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 53 guests