Snow and Water levels 2011

Questions and reports related to Sierra Nevada current and forecast conditions, as well as general precautions and safety information. Trail conditions, fire/smoke reports, mosquito reports, weather and snow conditions, stream crossing information, and more.
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kpeter
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Re: Snow and Water levels 2011

Post by kpeter »

The data is very inaccurate in a whole bunch of different ways. For example, the sensor data almost always shows less than the hand measured data, and I have noticed numerous blips where the sensor is obvious malfunctioning. I've been dropping certain locations and taking others just because some sensors were working better during our comparison years.

None of that inaccuracy really matters, though, if you are using the data strictly for comparisons across seasons. The gauges do reliably show you the day they run dry. And if they are on a sunny south slope in 1998 they will also be on a sunny south slope in 2006 (at least those alpine sensors!)

My goal is to figure out which other year this season best resembles, and then we will know that the conditions this year will most closely resemble the conditions from that known year. We could all chime in with our memories of the snow in year XXXX as a way of knowing what to expect in 2011. So far, the nominees include 1993, 1995, 1998, and 2006. Based on snowfall alone we are best matched by 1993. However, which year we ultimately end up resembling most closely will depend mostly upon the warmth of May and early June.

In a couple of days, when we have the May 1 data, I will let you know how we compare with the four candidate years as of May 1.

I agree, WD, that walking on snow is no barrier to some people and even enjoyable. I don't mind it, just so long as I do not have to cross dangerous fords or passes. There, I'm very conservative, and since I'm planning a long loop trip I don't want to start it and find my way is blocked. People, myself included, are prone to take undue risks when they are halfway through a trip and find a barrier. And so I am a little obsessive/compulsive when it comes to planning to avoid such things--it sounds like you are too--looking for trips with bridges, etc.
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Electra
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Re: Snow and Water levels 2011

Post by Electra »

I think this year will resemble 1995. That year, most everything above 10,500 was snow covered until mid to late august. Any pass above 11k on the muir trail had snow for miles, muir pass had snow down to just above sapphire until mid august. I recall guiding a cross country trip near black giant and langille peaks in northern kings in mid august and up on the flanks were 15 foot slabs and drifts in spots. Very impressive.
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kpeter
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Re: Snow and Water levels 2011

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The May 1 data is in and I am surprised. This is NOT shaping up to be a late snow year, so far.

Most of the stations have less water content than all four of the comparison years (2006, 1998, 1995, and 1993.) In the four comparison years very little if any melt happened in April--May 1 was pretty much the high point in all four years. In 2011, however, all the stations show some significant melting occuring in April.

So we are ahead of the usual melt so far, although this early in the season it would be easy for a cooling trend to reverse that.

I've been trying to monitor every working automatic station that is above 10,000 feet (there are not very many of them, actually), and none of them are showing any more water content than ANY of the four comparison years. The closest matches are 1993 and 2006. A few, like Bishop pass and Chagoopa Plateau are lower than last year.

Conclusion: the melt is ahead of 2006, 1998, 1995, and 1993 as of May 1.
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texan
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Re: Snow and Water levels 2011

Post by texan »

I think it depends where your at in the Sierras. The water content at Leavitt Lake on May 1st is around 86 inches. There are only two years that have a higher reading (82 and 95). Also Leavitt Lake usually has the most snow in the Sierras according to the snow sensor data. I know because I have been looking at it for years.
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Re: Snow and Water levels 2011

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Electra wrote:I think this year will resemble 1995. That year, most everything above 10,500 was snow covered until mid to late august. Any pass above 11k on the muir trail had snow for miles, muir pass had snow down to just above sapphire until mid august. I recall guiding a cross country trip near black giant and langille peaks in northern kings in mid august and up on the flanks were 15 foot slabs and drifts in spots. Very impressive.
I agree with you. 95 was impressive especially with water content. I remember going in late August on a trip and could niot believe the amount of snow. Also that was the year my friend caught the biggest fish I have ever seen in the backcountry.

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Re: Snow and Water levels 2011

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texan wrote:I think it depends where your at in the Sierras. The water content at Leavitt Lake on May 1st is around 86 inches. There are only two years that have a higher reading (82 and 95). Also Leavitt Lake usually has the most snow in the Sierras according to the snow sensor data. I know because I have been looking at it for years.
Sorry I meant 83 not 82.

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rlown
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Re: Snow and Water levels 2011

Post by rlown »

i guess we could analyze this to death, but, it melts when it melts :D . Then everyone needs to make plans accordingly, based on creek crossings, snow crossings, etc.
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kpeter
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Re: Snow and Water levels 2011

Post by kpeter »

Thank you Texan, I will add Leavitt Lake to the watch list. I did not have it included since it is at 9600. Also, sadly, its data does not go back to 95 and 93.

Here is some of the data so people can make up their own minds.

Water content of Leavitt Lake on May 1
2011 86
2010 81
2006 101
1998 83

Charlotte Lake on May 1
2011 98 (only snow depth available)
2010 78 snow depth, 28 water content
2006 41
1998 41
1995 40
1993 36

Bishop Pass on May 1
2011 31
2010 38
2006 47
1998 42
1995 46
1993 30

Blackcap Basin on May 1
2011 43
2010 42
2006 52
1998 50
1995 69
1993 48

Crabtree Meadows on May 1
2011 23
2010 19
2006 25
1995 25
1993 19
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texan
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Re: Snow and Water levels 2011

Post by texan »

kpeter wrote:Thank you Texan, I will add Leavitt Lake to the watch list. I did not have it included since it is at 9600. Also, sadly, its data does not go back to 95 and 93.

Here is some of the data so people can make up their own minds.

Water content of Leavitt Lake on May 1
2011 86
2010 81
2006 101
1998 83

Charlotte Lake on May 1
2011 98 (only snow depth available)
2010 78 snow depth, 28 water content
2006 41
1998 41
1995 40
1993 36

Bishop Pass on May 1
2011 31
2010 38
2006 47
1998 42
1995 46
1993 30

Blackcap Basin on May 1
2011 43
2010 42
2006 52
1998 50
1995 69
1993 48

Crabtree Meadows on May 1
2011 23
2010 19
2006 25
1995 25
1993 19
Hello,

Here is the data from Leavitt Lake I found. Also I was in the area in late August 1995 and 2006. There was a lot more snow in 1995. Also remember Mammoth Mtn had its longest season in 1995. It stayed opened until August 13th. Thanks for the info.

Water Content

Leavitt Lake

4/83 94
5/93 76
5/95 94
4/98 63
4/06 80

Also in 1995 its was a cool summer in the Sierras and that is why the snow lasted so long. To me the biggest winter was 94-95 depending on where you were at and second was 82-83. I was up at Piute Pass at the end of July in 83 as a teenager and the snow drifts were above our heads.

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rlown
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Re: Snow and Water levels 2011

Post by rlown »

kpeter,

Most of those stations also record some temp data, even manual. If your hypothesis is that the spring melt of May/June affects the rate of melt, you should include those historical numbers as well. granted the remote sensors didn't activate until ~2005 where you could get a monthly low or high avg, there might be some problems with that.

Single points of reference in time don't mean much in the climate. Just saying.
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