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Weather Alert 10/15-10/17

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Weather Alert 10/15-10/17

Postby maverick » Sat Oct 08, 2016 5:20 pm

A big systemis moving next week and really getting stronger with a second wave during the weekend and into the start of the following week. Anyone heading into Yosemite, and especiall anywhere north of Yosemite, should be aware of this system and plan accordingly.

Mammoth Lakes Weather:

The wet pattern for Northern California that begins Thursday, will most likely be associated with rain not snowfall at Northern CA ski resort elevations. QPF amounts that the computer models are cranking out are pretty astounding with the Atmospheric River. Some areas may get up to 15 inches of rain in the mountains around Shasta. Sure, there will be cooler air following the warm moist rain leaded air mass, that will be followed by lowering snow levels. And….it is possible that the mountains of Southern Mono County could pick up 6 inches to a foot between Monday and Monday Night above 7500 to 8000 feet with the final short wave. However, most of the precipitation will be rain throughout the event over Northern CA, not snow at elevations under 10,000 to 11,000 feet during the wettest part of the storm. Again….The best chance of some snowfall for Mammoth Mt will be Monday and Monday night the 17th.

According to the latest 12Z Saturday run of the ECMWF, the bulls-eye for snowfall for the sierra is near Sonora Pass where between 12 and 18 inches is possible at elevations above 8000 feet on the west side of the pass, Monday through Monday night.
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I don't give out specific route information, my belief is that it takes away from the whole adventure spirit of a trip, if you need every inch planned out, you'll have to get that from someone else.

Have a safer backcountry experience by using the HST ReConn Form 2.0, named after Larry Conn, a HST member: http://reconn.org

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