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El Nino's affect on the rest of this summer?

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El Nino's affect on the rest of this summer?

Postby Mr Peabody » Thu Aug 06, 2015 11:58 am

With this winter looking like it'll be a record breaking El Nino year, what affect will it have on the rest of this summer?

It seems like this summer has seen a lot more thunderstorms. And for the first time I actually had to use full rain gear on a weekend trip in the beginning of July. I have a trip planned from August 15th-September 4th. I'm wondering if I should prepare for a lot more rain/thunderstorms? Possibility of early winter storms in late September?



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Re: El Nino's affect on the rest of this summer?

Postby maverick » Thu Aug 06, 2015 1:00 pm

With this winter looking like it'll be a record breaking El Nino year, what affect will it have on the rest of this summer?


The forecasters are predicting an 85% chance of an average to above average winter, we will have to wait and see how many times these numbers get modified.

I have a trip planned from August 15th-September 4th. I'm wondering if I should prepare for a lot more rain/thunderstorms? Possibility of early winter storms in late September?

Weather forecasters cannot predict the weather a week in advance with the greatest accuracy, so how precise do you think we will be months in advance? :lol:

Last strong El Nino was in 97 and 98, you can dig up some of the weather modules for that time period, and see what was happening in the months that you are interested in, but there are no guarantees that the exact same conditions will exist this year, as they did back in those years.

PS Welcome to HST Mr Peabody! :)
HST= Wilderness Adventurer who knows no bounds, except for their own imagination.

Have a safer backcountry experience by using the HST ReConn Form 2.0, named after Larry Conn, a HST member: http://reconn.org
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Re: El Nino's affect on the rest of this summer?

Postby SSSdave » Thu Aug 06, 2015 3:15 pm

Chance of an actual cold front coming down the coast into California about a week away. The kind of weather one gets most summers regularly in the Pacific northwest but rarely this far south. We already had one bout of such cold fronts on July 9 when I got snowed on. Would be extra prepared on any long trips the rest of this summer. This month have already been pummeled by 3 thunderstorms that rate among the strongest during my several decades backpacking in the Sierra so we are into the unknown one would be wise to suspect any weather forecasts out more than a few days.
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Re: El Nino's affect on the rest of this summer?

Postby Tom_H » Thu Aug 06, 2015 3:20 pm

Those of us who have done a lot of backpacking in Colorado and Wyoming will tell you that daily thunderstorms are a normal part of the backpacking experience in those areas. You simply make sure you have adequate rain gear and perhaps a more substantial tent or rain fly. It's also good to have layers of wool or some other modern synthetic fabric with high wicking properties that will keep you relatively dry and warm. I used to carry a waterproof Paul Petzoldt wind and rain parka that was big enough to draw my knees up against my torso and stay dry during a sudden rain shower. You might want to avoid down and go with synthetic fill in your sleeping bag. Plan routes such that you go over passes earlier in the day and avoid being at high points (passes, ridges, peaks) in the mid-afternoon. It helps to get down into the trees for some wind break, but watch carefully for widow makers and don't set up camp by the tallest tree in the area.

Here in the valley, I see large cloud cover pass overhead every day and wonder how much moisture is being lost from the El Nino that would have fallen from cooler temperatures later in the season. I don't want the thing to run out of steam (literally) before it cools off enough for it to provide rain. Maybe it will saturate the ground in the Sierra and prepare it for a heavy snow season and a long sustained spring and summer melt. Also hope the El Nino will last through the spring and into early next summer. It would be great to get 10 months of heavy rain and snow fall. God knows we need it.
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Re: El Nino's affect on the rest of this summer?

Postby maverick » Thu Aug 06, 2015 6:42 pm

HST= Wilderness Adventurer who knows no bounds, except for their own imagination.

Have a safer backcountry experience by using the HST ReConn Form 2.0, named after Larry Conn, a HST member: http://reconn.org
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Re: El Nino's affect on the rest of this summer?

Postby Mr Peabody » Sat Aug 08, 2015 7:49 pm

Thanks for all the help and warm welcoming guys.

I guess if you look at the last couple of months of rain, and the upcoming probability of a record breaking el nino year– it's safe to assume that the remainder of the summer and autumn could have abnormal weather. So I'll pack accordingly. I'm trying to do the SHR in it's entirety which is multiple passes a day and above 10k for the the trips entirety. Might get a little interesting.
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