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our monsoon summer...again

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our monsoon summer...again

Postby SSSdave » Fri Jul 31, 2015 11:23 am

Started up again yesterday Thursday with forecasts today Friday am showing Sierra Crest areas at about 50% chances of storms in the afternoon and lesser during mornings and night thru next few days. Spent all week starting with the Fourth holiday dodging the rain and then our board's big meetup group got hammered same. Now as August begins another round though supposedly not as bad which gives me more hope. As an 8-5 m-f working guy in Silicon Valley, this Tuesday set up next Monday and Tuesday as PTO so will be driving up and over the Tioga Pass this evening on my way on to Bishop. Saw the stormy forecasts possibilities but committed regardless because whatever greenery is left up at highest elevations won't last much longer.

No permit reservations so am going to be in line probably at the Mono Visitor Center tomorrow Saturday when it opens in order to get a walk-up permit hopefully for the Middle Fork of Bishop Creek areas. Anyone else? With the low inlet stream flows due to the drought, Moonlight and Topsy Turvy ought to already have turned to their more turquoise colors courtesy of the milky flow out of that immense Powell glacial moraine. So a nice pm pic of those waters with the rusty Piute Crags in the distance. Also am going to get up on Table Mountain. On our Duck Pass 9-day trip, afternoons were pretty useless due to too many clouds but am gambling will be able to get some workable conditions within my 4 days base camping especially since most subjects will work during mornings when chances of sun are higher. That area has lots of late blooming Coville's columbine in the big talus and other close-up subjects too that work well with cloudy diffuse light.

Well with the storm forecasts will be bringing up lots of extra candy and munchies for those hours stuck inside the tent. And some reading material via my Kindle. And of course will have all the rain gear and clothing. Setting up at my favorite out of the way spot in the basin is a pleasant notion even if it storms.

David



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Re: our monsoon summer...again

Postby schmalz » Fri Jul 31, 2015 12:22 pm

I have a trip planned for next week starting Monday. It looks like I'll be avoiding the monsoon again, just like last year.

I had a trip planned for the Mammoth Lakes area but based on the Willow Fire I don't think that is a good idea. It's possible you could run into similar issues out of Sabrina but it's hard to say.
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Re: our monsoon summer...again

Postby maverick » Fri Jul 31, 2015 1:30 pm

It looks like I'll be avoiding the monsoon again, just like last year.


Monday still has thunderstorms, and then on Wed/Thur the possibility of another round of moisture could be arriving, but NWS models are conflicted on this, so need to wait a few more days to see which model is correct.
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Re: our monsoon summer...again

Postby schmalz » Fri Jul 31, 2015 1:54 pm

maverick wrote:
It looks like I'll be avoiding the monsoon again, just like last year.


Monday still has thunderstorms, and then on Wed/Thur the possibility of another round of moisture could be arriving, but NWS models are conflicted on this, so need to wait a few more days to see which model is correct.


I'll probably be up in Emigrant, which is forecast clear on Monday latest I looked. I am planning on being out 7 days so I'm well aware that anything can happen in that timeframe. We'll be prepared for whatever. Still bummed about the Willow Fire and having to skip Duck Pass two years in a row.
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Re: our monsoon summer...again

Postby maverick » Fri Jul 31, 2015 2:10 pm

Still bummed about the Willow Fire


Yeah, 4394 Acres, and still only 30% contained. :(
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Re: our monsoon summer...again

Postby SSSdave » Fri Jul 31, 2015 2:32 pm

Will there be smoke or not? This is where I go first for wind direction forecasts. The whole period upper winds will be moving from southwest or south. Thus the Willow fire will not affect Bishop Creek basins but rather eastern San Joaquin River areas north through Stanislaus R, upper Owens R thru Walker R.

http://virga.sfsu.edu/crws/jetstream_fcsts.html

And latest Willow briefing:

http://sierranewsonline.com/willow-fire ... ush-south/
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Re: our monsoon summer...again

Postby Shhsgirl » Sat Aug 01, 2015 8:15 am

Yup, here we go again, dodging lightning and hail. Does anyone else feel there might be a change in weather patterns during this drought? It seems to me (with nothing but my own layman's observations to go on) that the southern monsoons are getting sucked up to the Sierra more often during June-Sept. It used to be that starting at around Labor Day, one could count on a marked lessening of thunderstorms, but with what we've got going now, I wonder.
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Re: our monsoon summer...again

Postby oldranger » Tue Aug 04, 2015 9:42 am

No smoke in the Sawtooths. Maybe a little rain! Good stream flow and great wildflowers, and fishing that puts the sierra to shame! Just sayin!

mike
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Re: our monsoon summer...again

Postby SSSdave » Tue Aug 04, 2015 9:54 am

Photographers have smoke issues in the southern Sierra now. Back home after hiking out Monday afternoon. Woke up in the upper Middle Fork of Bishop Creek basins yesterday Monday to the smell of smoke with mildly smoky skies. Saturday and Sunday were crisp and clear. Looking down canyon Owens Valley and White Mountains were not visible. Suspected large thunderstorms Saturday afternoon had started local lightning fires but found out later that was not true. By late morning had changed little so decided to pack up and hike out. Winds came up from the west and southwest so by 3pm as I reached the Sabrina trailhead and skies and the Owens Valley had mostly cleared though the valley air clarity was only modest. Although the Willow Fire near Bass Lake has been putting smoke into skies around Mammoth Lakes and Mono Lake areas, Bishop and areas of the Owens Valley to the south had been clear. But then smoke from the Cabin Fire in the Upper Kern Basin began blowing in as winds changed from the monsoon flow to a trough off the coast Sunday night. Now regret hiking out and because today, Tuesday morning, might have been clear.

Snippet from:
https://www.facebook.com/inyonf/posts/894688653945160

The hazy conditions and light smoke we are seeing on the southern part of the forest and Owens Valley are due to several fires, with the Cabin Fire being the most significant, on the west side of the Sierra. Prevailing winds are carrying the smoke across the crest.


Also the Saturday late afternoon storm was severe. An inch or two of rain with lots of lightning, thunder, hail. Caused lots of runoff over landscapes and stream flows came up.
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Re: our monsoon summer...again

Postby freestone » Sat Jul 09, 2016 7:35 am

I think we are still waiting for the first big monsoon pattern of the season and it's almost mid- July? On the solar spot front, we are now in a minimum cycle with the sun being very placid.
One other item worth mentioning… I do not know if any of you have been keeping up with solar news. The Sun has been recording several spotless days since early June. We are rapidly headed toward another solar minimum. There is also a link between wetter CA winters and solar minimums.

The Dweebs. Always so optimistic, weatherise.
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Re: our monsoon summer...again

Postby AlmostThere » Sat Jul 09, 2016 7:54 am

freestone wrote:I think we are still waiting for the first big monsoon pattern of the season and it's almost mid- July? On the solar spot front, we are now in a minimum cycle with the sun being very placid.
One other item worth mentioning… I do not know if any of you have been keeping up with solar news. The Sun has been recording several spotless days since early June. We are rapidly headed toward another solar minimum. There is also a link between wetter CA winters and solar minimums.

The Dweebs. Always so optimistic, weatherise.


You know this thread is a year old, right?
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Re: our monsoon summer...again

Postby freestone » Sat Jul 09, 2016 9:25 am

I do, does it matter?
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