Weather Alert 7/18-7/21
Posted: Mon Jul 13, 2015 3:45 pm
Models are showing two scenarios, one having the hurricanes energy missing us, the other having an impact on the southern Sierra, and mixing with the monsoonal flow from the southwest. Please keep any eye on this as we get closer towards the weekend, if the second scenario plays out, it could be a really wet and electric weekend, and possibly beyond in the Sierra.
.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES AT MIDDAY WERE RUNNING A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY ARE ON TRACK TO REACH THE MID 90S.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER CALIFORNIA THROUGH MIDWEEK...
KEEPING SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN A DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK THE TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WILL WARM TO AROUND 100.
THE FORECAST FOR THE COMING WEEKEND HAS A GREATER DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY TODAY...AS THE ECMWF AND GFS NOW HAVE DIVERGENT
SOLUTIONS FOR HURRICANE DOLORES. AT 20Z /1300 PDT/ THIS AFTERNOON...
DOLORES WAS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST NEAR 17.2 N/ 106.3 W.
DOLORES HAD SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 75 KTS. THE
HURRICANE WAS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 8 KTS.
THE 12Z GFS TRACKS DOLORES NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN
TURNS THE STORM WESTWARD TO 20N/120W BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE
HURRICANE IS THEN FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BEFORE GETTING CAUGHT IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. IF THIS
SOLUTION IS CORRECT...MOISTURE FROM DOLORES WOULD STAY WELL AWAY
FROM CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND AND CONDITIONS FOR INTERIOR CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WOULD BE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY ALTHOUGH THE GFS DOES BRING
A MONSOONAL INFLUX INTO THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR INCREASED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE 00Z ECMWF TRACKS DOLORES NORTHWEST TO 24N/120W BY 00Z SUNDAY
/1700 PDT SATURDAY/...THEN TURNS THE STORM NORTHWARD AND WEAKENS IT
AS IT BECOMES ENTRAINED IN THE FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THE ECMWF HAS MOISTURE FROM DOLORES PUSHING
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BEGINNING SATURDAY AS WELL AS THE MONSOONAL
SURGE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THE
WFO HANFORD WARNING/ FORECAST AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS...THE
FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SOLUTIONS. HAVE GONE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AND THE
TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE WFO HANFORD
WARNING/FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...EXCEPT
FOR CHANCE POPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA...INCLUDING THE PIUTES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING NORTH OF KERN COUNTY MONDAY MORNING.
.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES AT MIDDAY WERE RUNNING A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY ARE ON TRACK TO REACH THE MID 90S.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER CALIFORNIA THROUGH MIDWEEK...
KEEPING SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN A DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK THE TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WILL WARM TO AROUND 100.
THE FORECAST FOR THE COMING WEEKEND HAS A GREATER DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY TODAY...AS THE ECMWF AND GFS NOW HAVE DIVERGENT
SOLUTIONS FOR HURRICANE DOLORES. AT 20Z /1300 PDT/ THIS AFTERNOON...
DOLORES WAS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST NEAR 17.2 N/ 106.3 W.
DOLORES HAD SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 75 KTS. THE
HURRICANE WAS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 8 KTS.
THE 12Z GFS TRACKS DOLORES NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN
TURNS THE STORM WESTWARD TO 20N/120W BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE
HURRICANE IS THEN FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BEFORE GETTING CAUGHT IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. IF THIS
SOLUTION IS CORRECT...MOISTURE FROM DOLORES WOULD STAY WELL AWAY
FROM CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND AND CONDITIONS FOR INTERIOR CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WOULD BE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY ALTHOUGH THE GFS DOES BRING
A MONSOONAL INFLUX INTO THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR INCREASED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE 00Z ECMWF TRACKS DOLORES NORTHWEST TO 24N/120W BY 00Z SUNDAY
/1700 PDT SATURDAY/...THEN TURNS THE STORM NORTHWARD AND WEAKENS IT
AS IT BECOMES ENTRAINED IN THE FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THE ECMWF HAS MOISTURE FROM DOLORES PUSHING
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BEGINNING SATURDAY AS WELL AS THE MONSOONAL
SURGE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THE
WFO HANFORD WARNING/ FORECAST AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS...THE
FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SOLUTIONS. HAVE GONE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AND THE
TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE WFO HANFORD
WARNING/FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...EXCEPT
FOR CHANCE POPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA...INCLUDING THE PIUTES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING NORTH OF KERN COUNTY MONDAY MORNING.